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I have zero faith in Musk coming through other than donating their N95 masks from their factories.

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Question for those in manufacturing, how does a car plant retool so fast to make something complex like a ventilator? And then produce so many in such a short time frame?

And it will be interesting to see what this does to seasonal flu death rates next year. Social distancing might decrease the number of flu deaths. People might actually listen to their docs.

SoupNazi2001 said:

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No run the hospitalization rate for those under 65 and without pre-existing conditions.

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Let me confirm the purpose of this thought exercise - you're asking whether our hospitals will be okay if we just leave the hundreds of thousands of people >65 to die on the doorsteps of the hospital rather than bothering to treat them - is that it?

That's an angle I hadn't thought of and may actually be a positive.

flakrat said:

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Quote:

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I have zero faith in Musk coming through other than donating their N95 masks from their factories.

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Question for those in manufacturing, how does a car plant retool so fast to make something complex like a ventilator? And then produce so many in such a short time frame?

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They would guess they will not be the same or as fancy as the currently available ones.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-8127281/Engineers-develop-share-open-source-designs-DIY-ventilators.html

dermdoc said:

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And it will be interesting to see what this does to seasonal flu death rates next year. Social distancing might decrease the number of flu deaths. People might actually listen to their docs.

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I am not going to go back and look it up, but either Hong Kong or Singapore saw a massive reduction in other infectious diseases due to the social distancing measures.

AgLiving06 said:

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PJYoung said:

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dermdoc said:

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PJYoung said:

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Agnzona said:

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The death rate is the big lie. 5%, 4%, 3%, 2%, 1%, when all said is done this will end up at .05%.

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South Korea has done an amazing job with this and their death rate (CFR) will end up being well over 1%.

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And they only tested 190k out of 61 million people. The actual mortality rate is much lower than that.

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You know the people they tested weren't random, right? Or maybe you haven't read about what they have done.

They aggressively tested every cluster and tracked contacts down using cellphone and credit card data of EVERYbody that infected person was suspected of coming into contact with and tested them.

THAT is how they have controlled their outbreak. There is not some great unknown of positive cases in South Korea, that is why their case load is flattening and there is not a ton of new clusters popping up like we have all over.

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Here's the problem I have with this and I have to use the flu as the comparison (on stats not symptoms).

I believe these are close enough stats:

Deaths this season: 22,000
Confirmed cases: 220,000
Estimated people who contract flue: 36,000,000

If you are putting your entire hope on testing capability, unfortunately it's a false hope. The vast vast majority of people will get or have already gotten it and will never know, just like the flu.

This is the problem I've had with this whole thing. We've allowed the hype to ruin common sense.

We need to get prepared, which we are doing now, but then we have to let everyone get back to their life and let this thing spread or die out.

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We have been through this disingenuous "confirmed flu cases" argument over here:

https://texags.com/forums/16/topics/3101273/replies/56211462

Significant increases in testing capability + rigorous contact tracing after these 2-4 week quarantines is our only real hope for getting control of this thing without either long-term quarantines (not really viable) or a huge number of deaths (if we lift quarantines without a plan). In the best case, short of therapeutic advances in the near term, I think the mortality rate will be at > 0.8% (more likely 1%).

any data on what are the ages of people being hospitalized in NYC?

https://apcentral.collegeboard.org/about-ap/news-changes/coronavirus-update?fbclid=IwAR2uNze_loCM2ql2ZKsZqNKYOrOaVI6d5wOo-vnvvQTCDq7ciDk9-yvbIhc

Well that is interesting. Thanks, Charpie. I need to look more closely. Exams from home. Good lord.

Although I taught a semester version of my old AP English class a year ago to help out a school that needed help, I was not aware that the English Language and Lit courses had become so regimented compared to a decade ago when I was working for College Board. (By "regimented" I mean the specific units listed in English Lit, for instance.)

Anyway, thanks for the information. I believe you have a child taking the exams, and I hope he or she does well.

k20dub said:

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Anyone got a 3D printer?

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thanks for this. I have a good friend in Houston that has a business that does fabrication with 3-d printers. probably has 50-100 employees. I just sent this to him.

Sounds like Italy has 550 deaths in Lombardy alone today. They announce the full country's numbers in 30 min.

Edit: 793 dead in the whole country and 6,000 new cases.

She's taking 4 of them this year. Thanks!

Tabasco said:

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k20dub said:

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Anyone got a 3D printer?

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thanks for this. I have a good friend in Houston that has a business that does fabrication with 3-d printers. probably has 50-100 employees. I just sent this to him.

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He just texted me that he got a call from someone at NASA (he fabricated a working mockup of international space station modules) and that he is looking into it.

Italy is still going up!

BoydCrowder13 said:

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Sounds like Italy has 550 deaths in Lombardy alone today. They announce the full country's numbers in 30 min.

Edit: 793 dead in the whole country and 6,000 new cases.

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They're going to cross 1000 deaths/day soon.

AgResearch said:

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BoydCrowder13 said:

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Sounds like Italy has 550 deaths in Lombardy alone today. They announce the full country's numbers in 30 min.

Edit: 793 dead in the whole country and 6,000 new cases.

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They're going to cross 1000 deaths/day soon.

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1000 deaths and 10,000 cases a day. This is not going to end well.

Quote:

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The second hospital in Madrid has collapsed this morning: it no longer has the capacity to care for more COVID19 patients.

RTVE Newsreports that the Military Emergencies Unit (UME) has been deployed to move coronavirus patients to field hospitals. @COVID19Up

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Spain is going down the same path. My god. Of all disaster situations, a real life pandemic was the last thing I ever thought I would see.

Tbs2003 said:

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AgLiving06 said:

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PJYoung said:

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dermdoc said:

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PJYoung said:

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Agnzona said:

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The death rate is the big lie. 5%, 4%, 3%, 2%, 1%, when all said is done this will end up at .05%.

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South Korea has done an amazing job with this and their death rate (CFR) will end up being well over 1%.

---

And they only tested 190k out of 61 million people. The actual mortality rate is much lower than that.

---

You know the people they tested weren't random, right? Or maybe you haven't read about what they have done.

They aggressively tested every cluster and tracked contacts down using cellphone and credit card data of EVERYbody that infected person was suspected of coming into contact with and tested them.

THAT is how they have controlled their outbreak. There is not some great unknown of positive cases in South Korea, that is why their case load is flattening and there is not a ton of new clusters popping up like we have all over.

---

Here's the problem I have with this and I have to use the flu as the comparison (on stats not symptoms).

I believe these are close enough stats:

Deaths this season: 22,000
Confirmed cases: 220,000
Estimated people who contract flue: 36,000,000

If you are putting your entire hope on testing capability, unfortunately it's a false hope. The vast vast majority of people will get or have already gotten it and will never know, just like the flu.

This is the problem I've had with this whole thing. We've allowed the hype to ruin common sense.

We need to get prepared, which we are doing now, but then we have to let everyone get back to their life and let this thing spread or die out.

---

We have been through this disingenuous "confirmed flu cases" argument over here:

https://texags.com/forums/16/topics/3101273/replies/56211462

Significant increases in testing capability + rigorous contact tracing after these 2-4 week quarantines is our only real hope for getting control of this thing without either long-term quarantines (not really viable) or a huge number of deaths (if we lift quarantines without a plan). In the best case, short of therapeutic advances in the near term, I think the mortality rate will be at > 0.8% (more likely 1%).

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And my point is you'll never achieve this.

Lets do some more math.

This article is from 3/17, but best I could find

Link

According to the article the numbers we have are:

Tested: 270,000
Population: 50,000,000

Percent of population tested: 0.54%

So the country who is the case study on testing hasn't even been able to test 1% of their population.

If I use round numbers, and put the US at 300,000,000 people, then to simply be on par with Korea, we would need to get to 1.62 million test, and even then we'd have tests 0.5% of our population.

So testing capability is good, but in the end, it won't be relevant to the vast majority of people who get the virus.

Are the Mercy and Comfort on station in or around NYC?

Anyone else sitting at home during this 15 days wishing they could have voluntarily gotten the damn thing? I mean we are all home "sick" as we are supposed to be "assuming we have the virus" which is fine. Except we're not going to come out the other side of this 15 days with immunity/antibodies. We've in essence taken a nationwide sick leave, without the REAL benefit of herd-immunity.

Hell I'd be willing to catch it right now and they can use me as a guinea pig. I'll be a lab-rat. I'm home "behaving" like I'm sick anyway - I'd rather gain the immunity so I can get back to life full-speed with no worries April 4.

We're gonna gain herd immunity a helluva lot later along because of this flat curve. Seems to me we are wasting opportunities for valuable testing and expediting herd immunity - which is the actual goal alongside a vaccine.

Flame away.

Trump and Pence are nails again today in news conference. No questions yet tho.

Nuclear Scramjet said:

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Italy is still going up!

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They will likely go up for another 5-7 days. My understanding is rest of Italy didn't lock down till Sunday or Monday if this week.

HeardAboutPerio said:

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https://medium.com/six-four-six-nine/evidence-over-hysteria-covid-19-1b767def5894

Has this been posted anywhere. Passed along by a surgeon buddy this morning. So far, it makes a lot of sense.

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Excellent read. Surprised more people aren't commenting on this, as it's a nice, level-headed change of pace from the hysteria.

Ag In Ok said:

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Are the Mercy and Comfort on station in or around NYC?

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One is heading that way but won't be there for a while (I think I heard/read early April???).

The other is staying on the west coast.

74OA said:

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Doc Reveille still truth-telling over on the virus board: UPDATE

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TCTTS said:

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HeardAboutPerio said:

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https://medium.com/six-four-six-nine/evidence-over-hysteria-covid-19-1b767def5894

Has this been posted anywhere. Passed along by a surgeon buddy this morning. So far, it makes a lot of sense.

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Excellent read. Surprised more people aren't commenting on this, as it's a nice, level-headed change of pace from the hysteria.

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https://texags.com/forums/16/topics/3101611

FbgTxAg said:

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Anyone else sitting at home during this 15 days wishing they could have voluntarily gotten the damn thing? I mean we are all home "sick" as we are supposed to be "assuming we have the virus" which is fine. Except we're not going to come out the other side of this 15 days with immunity/antibodies. We've in essence taken a nationwide sick leave, without the REAL benefit of herd-immunity.

Hell I'd be willing to catch it right now and they can use me as a guinea pig. I'll be a lab-rat. I'm home "behaving" like I'm sick anyway - I'd rather gain the immunity so I can get back to life full-speed with no worries April 4.

We're gonna gain herd immunity a helluva lot later along because of this flat curve. Seems to me we are wasting opportunities for valuable testing and expediting herd immunity - which is the actual goal alongside a vaccine.

Flame away.

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Here. This is ridiculous.

Service industry wrecked. Real estate about to be wrecked.

When those required shut downs caused every strip center businesd to close, leading to no rent pay, leading to no mortgage pay what is the bank going to do? Foreclose it?

Kick the small businesses out of their rent space?

This whole thing is only just beginning. The effects of these shutdowns will trickle up and eventually cause such major damage it will be unrecoverable.

For the 96% of people for which the wuhan virus would have been no worse than a cold, the overreaction by bureaucrats will cause more harm than the virus.

Thanks.

That is so wonderful. I know you're proud, and you should be.

I think you have to break it into two phases - pre-epidemic and epidemic.

If you are in pre-epidemic phase you're doing case isolation and contact tracing / quarantine. Once you get community spread, you have people showing up with no known source of infection. Obviously it's not binary but I think if you can live in the pre-epidemic phase you can use testing to control the outbreak even at a pretty large level. Especially when you start getting minority report data crunching involved.

You don't need to test a huge number of people if you're screening literally everyone in the country based on big data for likelihood of infections. At that point the test is confirmation of what you already suspect.

I love how how Trump keeps saying "helping the states".

Trump is really good today.

aginlakeway said:

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Trump and Pence are nails again today in news conference. No questions yet tho.

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Big problem scheduling President Trump's briefing during Biden's nap time he will be unprepared to respond