Philip J Fry said:

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Social Distanced said:

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It was never under our control.

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I think we were close early on. But Europe and the WA nursing home was enough to leak through.

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I disagree. We've never had control. I think this thing has been here for months in all parts of the country, but we are just now detecting it.

Mateo84 said:

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Philip J Fry said:

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Social Distanced said:

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It was never under our control.

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I think we were close early on. But Europe and the WA nursing home was enough to leak through.

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I disagree. We've never had control. I think this thing has been here for months in all parts of the country, but we are just now detecting it.

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There's a reason this was classified as one of the worst flu seasons in December.

ShawnTxAg said:

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Wanna put your $ where your fingers are???

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When do you think our peak is?

TCTTS said:

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The doctor took a couple shots at Trump. Get over it.

I posted the article in order to ask a question I'm genuinely curious about.

I swear, this place goes apesh*t if one dissenting opinion is expressed other than the status quo.

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Yeah it really works that way in places like Cali or NYC or pick any lefty hell hole.

Philip J Fry said:

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Social Distanced said:

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It was never under our control.

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I think we were close early on. But Europe and the WA nursing home was enough to leak through.

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This could never be controlled is what I'm realizing. The Chinese reacted far too late for anyone to effectively control this thing. You had 5 million people leave Wuhan before the lockdown commenced, then you had flights from Iran to China for some time, and finally Western society was never going to be able to effectively implement the type of mass lockdowns that worked in China.

The biggest ****up in the West is that we were vastly underprepared to conduct a testing regime at mass. That might have been our only shot at really limiting the spread of this thing. Whoever ****ed up at the CDC by botching their own tests needs to explain exactly 1) Why they felt the WHO test was not good enough 2) What were the circumstances that led to the new CDC test being botched (I know some have mentioned a batch of bad reagents).

Agvet12 said:

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Mateo84 said:

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Philip J Fry said:

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Social Distanced said:

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It was never under our control.

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I think we were close early on. But Europe and the WA nursing home was enough to leak through.

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I disagree. We've never had control. I think this thing has been here for months in all parts of the country, but we are just now detecting it.

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There's a reason this was classified as one of the worst flu seasons in December.

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Unless I misunderstand this stuff, it was introduced into the United States by a traveler from Wuhan on January 15th and they are certain because of this:

https://bedford.io/blog/ncov-cryptic-transmission/












https://nextstrain.org/ncov?animate=2019-12-19,2020-03-17,1,0,15000

Austin.

The flu this fall is thought to have been a B-strain that was more virulent than average.

And this article cautions against overinterpreting the genome sequencing data

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/mutations-can-reveal-how-coronavirus-moves-they-re-easy-overinterpret

barnyard1996 said:

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Philip J Fry said:

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Social Distanced said:

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It was never under our control.

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I think we were close early on. But Europe and the WA nursing home was enough to leak through.

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Serious question, shouldn't Washington state have more cases by now?

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That part bugs me.

1). How do we know there aren't more cases?
2). It killed a pretty good percentage of the people effected
3). The elderly weren't exactly mobile.

Still, when you look at the known infected cases along with deaths over time, I don't think you see a clear lag like we should.

Does anyone have a link to a page that shows growth every day in each state.

The administration really should start preparing the public for large increases in death toll soon.

Good on Musk.

Philip J Fry said:

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Does anyone have a link to a page that shows growth every day in each state.

The administration really should start preparing the public for large increases in death toll soon.

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They don't have the graphs but you can get the data from here...

https://covidtracking.com/data/

PJYoung said:

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I'm glad that companies are basically going into a war footing for this thing and cross producing. Medical supplies being mass produced domestically is a big thing that will help. This is good news.

PJYoung said:

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And this article cautions against overinterpreting the genome sequencing data

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/mutations-can-reveal-how-coronavirus-moves-they-re-easy-overinterpret

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Excellent read, thank you.

PJYoung said:

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Resurgence of cases as people come out of isolation should be expected. May require rolling mitigation efforts.

PJYoung said:

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I'm rooting for Musk to finally deliver on time for one of his promises.

DTP02 said:

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I'm rooting for Musk to finally deliver on a promise like this.

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I have zero faith in Musk coming through other than donating their N95 masks from their factories.

It seems incredibly unlikely that most of us that are working from home, have restaurants closed, or are sheltering in place will be back to normal next weekend. If the projections of a late April peak are close to accurate would we really be looking at another month+ of this? Anybody have insight into how local govts are thinking about when to start relaxing things?

foleyt said:

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It seems incredibly unlikely that most of us that are working from home, have restaurants closed, or are sheltering in place will be back to normal next weekend. If the projections of a late April peak are close to accurate would we really be looking at another month+ of this? Anybody have insight into how local govts are thinking about when to start relaxing things?

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Didn't Abbot close almost everything until at least 4/3?

People expecting this to be back to normal next weekend are delusional.

AgsMyDude said:

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foleyt said:

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It seems incredibly unlikely that most of us that are working from home, have restaurants closed, or are sheltering in place will be back to normal next weekend. If the projections of a late April peak are close to accurate would we really be looking at another month+ of this? Anybody have insight into how local govts are thinking about when to start relaxing things?

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Didn't Abbot close almost everything until at least 4/3?

People expecting this to be back to normal next weekend are delusional.

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Next weekend we may start to see some progress if this quarantine is working, but agree it will be shut down for a while after still.

Mordred said:

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cone said:

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just curious, but how many deaths are coming out of Lombardy now as opposed to the rest of the country?

a death is a death, but if Lombardy isn't showing cessation by now, that's clearly more concerning (since they've been locked down longer)

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Tried, but I can't find that information easily. Lombardi as of today has 22,264 overall infected (15,420 currently sick cases), and 2,549 deaths. We can check back tomorrow and see how their growth rates compare to the rest of the country.

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It is. My daughter got notified that her AP tests will only cover what they have learned so far

k20dub said:

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Anyone got a 3D printer?

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Yes. I have two. I'll try it out.

I don't understand how that's possible. The AP Exams are set several years in advance for the most part, and they have certainly all been printed as we speak.

I can see how the English exams, for instance, could have their graders (I was a grader and Table Leader for many years) be more relaxed in their standards--fairly easy to do.

But I'm not sure how that would work on the calculus test or biology test, etc.

What a mess.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-reaches-african-continent-and-threatens-to-overwhelm-it-11961070

Never thought about this with regards to Africa but with their massive widespread HIV issue and their existing tuberculosis issues, Africa is going to get absolutely hammered by this thing. Compromised immune systems against this disease is going to be very bad.

We can't help them this time because we have enough problems on our own. I don't see this ending well for that area of the world.

PJYoung said:

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What's interesting is this type of paper requires two very different kind of experts to peer review. From the comments of that guys tweet, it seems like other meteorologists don't want any weather talk tied to this at all.

I do think it's well known there are not strong links to the warmer weather and virus. It may just be coincidental because a virus gets started up in the fall and then burns out by that time.

This one is novel and we don't have the natural immunity to it yet, so maybe this one doesn't die out like others.

I guess we'll see in two months what's up.

riverrataggie said:

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Philip J Fry said:

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Does anyone have a link to a page that shows growth every day in each state.

The administration really should start preparing the public for large increases in death toll soon.

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They don't have the graphs but you can get the data from here...

https://covidtracking.com/data/

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Perfect thank you.

https://medium.com/six-four-six-nine/evidence-over-hysteria-covid-19-1b767def5894

Has this been posted anywhere. Passed along by a surgeon buddy this morning. So far, it makes a lot of sense.

Doc Reveille still truth-telling over on the virus board: UPDATE

The death rate is the big lie. 5%, 4%, 3%, 2%, 1%, when all said is done this will end up at .05%.