It seems likely that this dies down in the summer and then hits like a hammer again around Halloween.

PJYoung said:

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Late April for our peak?

Former FDA head

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Without the distancing, yes. We'll have half the population infected by then. Obviously at that point, further infection will have to slow down.

Philip J Fry said:

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PJYoung said:

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Late April for our peak?

Former FDA head

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Without the distancing, yes. We'll have half the population infected by then. Obviously at that point, further infection will have to slow down.

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With 1/2 the population infected, wouldn't heard immunity concept take precedence over spread?

I'd like a really smart person to help me out with this

The prediction is that NYC will run out of hospital beds on Tuesday.

docaggie said:

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The prediction is that NYC will run out of hospital beds on Tuesday.

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God help us

IrishTxAggie said:

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Philip J Fry said:

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PJYoung said:

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Late April for our peak?

Former FDA head

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Without the distancing, yes. We'll have half the population infected by then. Obviously at that point, further infection will have to slow down.

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With 1/2 the population infected, wouldn't heard immunity concept take precedence over spread?

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Yes, that's why the rate of infection would slow.

Think of it in terms of probability. Early on when no one is sick, the virus simply needs to roll the dice to spread. Could spread to one...could spread to six. As it spreads, the chances that it will try to infect someone who has it increases, so they have to roll a 4 or greater to spread. I'm not an expert, but I would imagine that as the probability that the virus will spread up someone immune increases, we are also nearing the inflection point of the curve.

Of course, at 150 million infected, an reasonable guess of 5% hospitalized is still not manageable.

docaggie said:

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The prediction is that NYC will run out of hospital beds on Tuesday.

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I doubt that!

flakrat said:

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docaggie said:

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The prediction is that NYC will run out of hospital beds on Tuesday.

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I doubt that!

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Why?

I'm traveling all day tomorrow, so I'll post this now:

For IrishTxAggie...

19-Mar 168
20-Mar 207
21-Mar 255 <---We are here. Actual count is 264
22-Mar 315
23-Mar 389
24-Mar 480
25-Mar 592
26-Mar 731
27-Mar 901
28-Mar 1,112
29-Mar 1,372
30-Mar 1,693
31-Mar 2,089

Philip J Fry said:

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I'm traveling all day tomorrow, so I'll post this now:

For IrishTxAggie...

19-Mar 168
20-Mar 207
21-Mar 255 <---We are here. Actual count is 264
22-Mar 315
23-Mar 389
24-Mar 480
25-Mar 592
26-Mar 731
27-Mar 901
28-Mar 1,112
29-Mar 1,372
30-Mar 1,693
31-Mar 2,089

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So by your numbers, where do Mr. Infectious and I meet for my bottle of Basil Hayden?

For 70K? April 18/19th.

My hope is that the distancing will work, but we won't know for two more weeks. And the scary part is that with the 14 day lag and 7 days before the patient becomes critical...I don't want to say it but it might be too late to avoid that number.

I really can't overstate how critical the next two weeks are.

Philip J Fry said:

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flakrat said:

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docaggie said:

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The prediction is that NYC will run out of hospital beds on Tuesday.

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I doubt that!

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Why?

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Because it will be Wednesday

https://www.wired.com/story/coronavirus-interview-larry-brilliant-smallpox-epidemiologist/

Quote:

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How will we know when we're through this?

The world is not going to begin to look normal until three things have happened. One, we figure out whether the distribution of this virus looks like an iceberg, which is one-seventh above the water, or a pyramid, where we see everything. If we're only seeing right now one-seventh of the actual disease because we're not testing enough, and we're just blind to it, then we're in a world of hurt. Two, we have a treatment that works, a vaccine or antiviral. And three, maybe most important, we begin to see large numbers of people - in particular nurses, home health care providers, doctors, policemen, firemen, and teachers who have had the disease - are immune, and we have tested them to know that they are not infectious any longer. And we have a system that identifies them, either a concert wristband or a card with their photograph and some kind of a stamp on it. Then we can be comfortable sending our children back to school, because we know the teacher is not infectious.

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I read this quote and it sounds like most of us under 65 or so are better off just getting this thing and taking our chances. Am I wrong? Granted, I know the main goal of the curve flattening is to keep as many of us out of hospitals as possible here at the onslaught, but over the course of the next few months, is it ultimately better for society as a whole that most of us get this or no?

Wanna put your $ where your fingers are???

TCTTS said:

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https://www.wired.com/story/coronavirus-interview-larry-brilliant-smallpox-epidemiologist/

Quote:

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How will we know when we're through this?

The world is not going to begin to look normal until three things have happened. One, we figure out whether the distribution of this virus looks like an iceberg, which is one-seventh above the water, or a pyramid, where we see everything. If we're only seeing right now one-seventh of the actual disease because we're not testing enough, and we're just blind to it, then we're in a world of hurt. Two, we have a treatment that works, a vaccine or antiviral. And three, maybe most important, we begin to see large numbers of people - in particular nurses, home health care providers, doctors, policemen, firemen, and teachers who have had the disease - are immune, and we have tested them to know that they are not infectious any longer. And we have a system that identifies them, either a concert wristband or a card with their photograph and some kind of a stamp on it. Then we can be comfortable sending our children back to school, because we know the teacher is not infectious.

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I read this quote and it sounds like most of us under 65 or so are better off just getting this thing and taking our chances. Am I wrong? Granted, I know the main goal of the curve flattening is to keep as many of us out of hospitals as possible here at the onslaught, but over the course of the next few months, is it ultimately better for society as a whole that most of us get this or no?

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That's such a sorry hit piece it's embarrassing. It's dripping with political bias.

The doctor took a couple shots at Trump. Get over it.

I posted the article in order to ask a question I'm genuinely curious about.

I swear, this place goes apesh*t if one dissenting opinion is expressed other than the status quo.

Sure, in a perfect world. But this board is 95% "political shots" in the other direction, and no one ever seems to mind. It's funny how bias + "numbers" is fine when it's the bias you agree with.

Either way, I'm literally just asking a question, and thought the article helped with the context. Whether the doctor is a raging liberal or not is irrelevant. I'm using a single point he brought up to essentially ask, "What should be our best practice here?"

TCTTS said:

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The doctor took a couple shots at Trump. Get over it.

I posted the article in order to ask a question I'm genuinely curious about.

I swear, this place goes apesh*t if one dissenting opinion is expressed other than the status quo.

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Because he's a cowardice POS for taking potshots shots at our POTUS at this time. I'm sick and tired of the constant bull**** your side spews to try and score political points during a world wide catastrophe.

Maybe 86% chance you're just a carrier. Maybe 20% chance you end up hospitalized, 5% on a vent. MKe an assessment, live your life.

You might already had it.

I'm not a liberal and have never voted democrat, but sure. Never mind the "potshots" being thrown around toward the left here constantly. Again, I guess potshots are ok as long as they're against the people you disagree with. Got it.

Seriously, though... I'm just trying to ask a question.

k2aggie07 said:

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Maybe 86% chance you're just a carrier. Maybe 20% chance you end up hospitalized, 5% on a vent. MKe an assessment, live your life.

You might already had it.

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That's all good info. But I'm not really asking about anyone's chances. Rather, I'm asking, as a society, is it better for more of us to get this over the course of the next few months than not? So we can more easily identify those who are potentially immune?

Honestly at this point it's probably not really under our control.

And until we get a serological test it's a moot point.

Ok, gotcha. Good to know.

My dad and uncle are at opposite ends of the political spectrum but can pour a drink or two (or more) and by the end of the night will have always solved all the worlds problems. I'd encourage y'all to do the same.

The salient part of the article was the closing:

Quote:

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Is there in any way a brighter side to this?

Well, I'm a scientist, but I'm also a person of faith. And I can't ever look at something without asking the question of isn't there a higher power that in some way will help us to be the best version of ourselves that we could be? I thought we would see the equivalent of empty streets in the civic arena, but the amount of civic engagement is greater than I've ever seen. But I'm seeing young kids, millennials, who are volunteering to go take groceries to people who are homebound, elderly. I'm seeing an incredible influx of nurses, heroic nurses, who are coming and working many more hours than they worked before, doctors who fearlessly go into the hospital to work. I've never seen the kind of volunteerism I'm seeing.

I don't want to pretend that this is an exercise worth going through in order to get to that state. This is a really unprecedented and difficult time that will test us. When we do get through it, maybe like the Second World War, it will cause us to reexamine what has caused the fractional division we have in this country. The virus is an equal opportunity infector. And it's probably the way we would be better if we saw ourselves that way, which is much more alike than different.

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I don't know that I can call that observation uniquely American -- in some ways I think it is a human feature given to us by our Creator -- but we as an American people enjoy tremendous liberties, and I think at our core we're aware of the debt owed to repay or "pay it forward".

It was never under our control.

can you find a link beyond just that tweet?

Update here in the Canaries

Quote:

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20/3: Sad and worrying news tonight. It isn't just the elderly or those with underlying conditions at risk, but our frontline services are too. Spain tonight is mourning the death today of Francisco Javier Collado, a 38-year-old Guardia Civil officer from La Mancha in Ciudad Real who was otherwise in good health
Tragically, he is the second Guardia Civil victim. The first was Pedro Alamedo, a 37-year-old from Madrid who died on Wednesday, and who also had no underlying health conditions.

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Social Distanced said:

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It was never under our control.

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I think we were close early on. But Europe and the WA nursing home was enough to leak through.

Philip J Fry said:

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Social Distanced said:

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It was never under our control.

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I think we were close early on. But Europe and the WA nursing home was enough to leak through.

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Serious question, shouldn't Washington state have more cases by now?

Anyone got a 3D printer?