Great point - and we've already threatened our teenagers that this virus seeks out the smokers and vapers. Scared straight, am I right?!

There's a plain English google doc one tweet down.

That is bleh.

k2aggie07 said:

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There's a plain English google doc one tweet down.

That is bleh.

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Reading thru the plain English translation pretty much confirms the "behind the scenes in the Italian ER" articles that came out earlier this week. They laying on the stomach when intubated, the false hope of a turnaround before cratering, etc.

The only good thing I see is American doctors being awesome and sharing info to shortcut bad treatment options and develop better care. I don't like seeing reports of young people with no comorbidity being vented or that you go from fine to vent in 24 hrs.

hbtheduce said:

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10k-20k dead means ~500,000 people got the disease. The only scary part about that is that 50-75k will need hospital attention.

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Actually that'd mean 1-2 million people got the disease assuming a 1% death rate.

Quote:

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Don't get me wrong, I'm fine with some short term pain, because a "2 week vacation" won't destroy most companies. But don't pretend that even 10x those numbers have a large impact on the economy (especially if most are retired).

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Like I said, I don't like doing the math on how much one (1k, 100k) senior citizen's life is worth, especially if that senior citizen is my mom, or Father In Law (both of whom wouldn't have great odds if they contract this).

k2aggie07 said:

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I don't like seeing reports of young people with no comorbidity being vented or that you go from fine to vent in 24 hrs.

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I am going to bet there is something there whether smoking or vaping and it is not considered a "condition" and is not reported as such

Honest question. Looking for some insight.

If we can train dogs to detect blood sugar levels in diabetic children,
why wouldn't it be possible to train dogs to detect Coronavirus infections in people?

If we can, it could possibly be a great screening procedure at airports.

Right. And reading that need to remember by default that's the worst 5% of known cases and maybe 1% of actual.

Mordred said:

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hbtheduce said:

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10k-20k dead means ~500,000 people got the disease. The only scary part about that is that 50-75k will need hospital attention.

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Actually that'd mean 1-2 million people got the disease assuming a 1% death rate.

Quote:

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Don't get me wrong, I'm fine with some short term pain, because a "2 week vacation" won't destroy most companies. But don't pretend that even 10x those numbers have a large impact on the economy (especially if most are retired).

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Like I said, I don't like doing the math on how much one (1k, 100k) senior citizen's life is worth, especially if that senior citizen is my mom, or Father In Law (both of whom wouldn't have great odds if they contract this).

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Yeah I used 2% to be conservative.


Your also ignoring a major option on the table for society. The at risk groups could self-isolate themselves for MUCH LONGER periods of time without the economic damage. If this continues on past 3-4 weeks, that will have to be the plan unless you are in an area of high activity.

Man, this puts a lot in perspective. I know, I know - Rachel Maddow - but she hardly says a word, save for the beginning. Watch this for her guest, who breaks down exactly why what China is doing to combat this is so effective and why just telling people to stay home might not really fix this. I'm not at all advocating for enacting such strict measures here (we couldn't if we wanted to), but it's enlightening to hear the extremes it potentially takes to effectively and efficiently get this under control...

C@LAg said:

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VaultingChemist said:

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Honest question. Looking for some insight.

If we can train dogs to detect blood sugar levels in diabetic children,
why wouldn't it be possible to train dogs to detect Coronavirus infections in people?

If we can, it could possibly be a great screening procedure at airports.

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my guess is that diabetics have certain smells they emit in their breath due to Ketones and sugars being (or not being ) processed. Just like people on Keto can get funky breath, dogs can pick up on that and be trained to pick up on that easily

Covid virus gets in and damages cells. It is fully internalized (if that makes sense), and not likely to result in detectable "smells" for dogs.

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I thought dogs could detect certain types of cancer, also.

Thanks for sharing this, excellent interview.

I think everyone should check out this post over in the official COVID-19 forum also: https://texags.com/forums/84/topics/3099899

and yet one more tweet down:

Great, informative post... but also scary as sh*t. It feels like we're slowly going from "It's only serious for old people" to "More and more younger people will die from it too, for no rhyme or reason."

TCTTS said:

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Man, this puts a lot in perspective. I know, I know - Rachel Maddow - but she hardly says a word, save for the beginning. Watch this for her guest, who breaks down exactly why what China is doing to combat this is so effective and why just telling people to stay home might not really fix this. I'm not at all advocating for enacting such strict measures here (we couldn't if we wanted to), but it's enlightening to hear the extremes it potentially takes to effectively and efficiently get this under control...

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Yeah, that's an awesome interview. It also kinda shines a light on how the "Only 3k people died in China, this is a nothing virus!" crowd doesn't know what China did to clamp down on it.

Very curious to see what happens as China's economy starts to ramp back up.

Mordred said:

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TCTTS said:

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Man, this puts a lot in perspective. I know, I know - Rachel Maddow - but she hardly says a word, save for the beginning. Watch this for her guest, who breaks down exactly why what China is doing to combat this is so effective and why just telling people to stay home might not really fix this. I'm not at all advocating for enacting such strict measures here (we couldn't if we wanted to), but it's enlightening to hear the extremes it potentially takes to effectively and efficiently get this under control...

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Yeah, that's an awesome interview. It also kinda shines a light on how the "Only 3k people died in China, this is a nothing virus!" crowd doesn't know what China did to clamp down on it.

Very curious to see what happens as China's economy starts to ramp back up.

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And then you've got the approach South Korea is taking:

Quote:

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The country could act so effectively due to a piece of rare good luck. Buttressing prior experience with SARS and MERS, the KCDC by coincidence conducted a table-top exercise on a coronavirus outbreak in December 2019.

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They immediately started testing 20k people a day, were apparently scanning people in establishments for fever using thermal cameras, and tracking cases using cctv and credit card use patterns.

https://asiatimes.com/2020/03/why-are-koreas-covid-19-death-rates-so-low/

So you've got extreme quarantine measures as one approach and simply being prepared for something like this approach. I'm not sure where that leaves the USA.

****ed is the word you're looking for.

Really interesting stuff about Korea.

C@LAg said:

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TCTTS said:

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Great, informative post... but also scary as sh*t. It feels like we're slowly going from "It's only serious for old people" to "More and more younger people will die from it too, for no rhyme or reason."

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honest question: where are we seeing more and more young dying?

For the WA cluster of 32-35, I believe the youngest so far has been in their 40s.

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We've had 50 deaths so far in the US. I can't find how many of those are "young," but it sounds like at least a few. So at that rate I'm just doing the math if deaths get into thousands or hundreds of thousands. I know there are a million variables, and I don't mean to sound alarmist, but that's the first thing I've read that sent a chill down my spine, in that there are no common threads among the (admittedly very few) young people who have died so far. It sounds pretty random, no matter how healthy you are. Am I reading that wrong? (no stark, genuinely curious)

There's a right and a wrong way to help. This is the latter.

West Virginia

I would say "NSFW," but most of us are apparently working from home now, so...

dermdoc said:

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cone said:

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seems like it's on a once in a lifetime trajectory

1968 was 100k dead Americans

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And the flu kills 80 k a year. I already predicted on another thread 100k. And that pisses me off. But nothing "government" can do about it. If "government" could do something, why are so many people dying from flu every year?

This is not once in a lifetime trajectory. Go back historically and look at figures for things like the Spanish flu, Black Plague, HIV/AIDS, etc.

Every generation thinks they are special. They are not, sorry.

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GAC06 said:

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West Virginia

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Unofficial winner of March Madness.