Alta said:

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It actually means a lot. And as pointed out over and over again if the US ends up being like Italy then that would be a great result for the US. Not sure why people keep using that as an example.

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Guys, it's exponential growth, and rate of that exponent that matters. There are 5x more people in the US than in Italy. If we **** the bed like they did, it means 5x more people will die in the US than in Italy. How cool are you with reading "1250 people died of Coronavirus today" cause that's where we've been heading.

Every western country has been between 20-30% daily increase of confirmed cases. Unless false positives are significant (and with that paper that said they may be 80%?! Who knows????) that is the floor for spread without quarantine. Scale absolutely is irrelevant when youre doubling every 3-4 of days. it gets real real fast.

Zero chance we have 1250 dead in one day. I will bet money on that.

Just show an apples to apples comparison if you care that much. Then folks won't ***** about it.

And on Italy we have 5x the hospital capacity as Italy for same number of cases and are 10 days ahead of them. You can't really extrapolate much from Italy to the US based on numbers.

ttu_85 said:

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k2aggie07 said:

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That is very reassuring. I sure hope that is the case!

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Think I'll still go with 7' just to be sure. Unless she is really hot and friendly.

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Would that reduce to 2-3 inches then. Thank you and good night. I'll be here all week.

k2aggie07 said:

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Every western country has been between 20-30% daily increase of confirmed cases. Unless false positives are significant (and with that paper that said they may be 80%?! Who knows????) that is the floor for spread without quarantine. Scale absolutely is irrelevant when youre doubling every 3-4 of days. it gets real real fast.

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As a comparison of South Korea vs the US it is relevant.

In the grand scheme of life you are correct, the scale doesn't really matter.

Whiskey Jacket said:

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Zero chance we have 1250 dead in one day. I will bet money on that.

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I don't believe we will either, but Italy had 250 die today, and 5x that is 1250. I think current measures being taken will drastically limit deaths, and hopefully we keep things around H1N1 levels in the long run.

one paper shows the attack rate with close contacts to be much lower than you'd expect

one paper shows no virus in the air of a patients room after they'd be in there but not disinfected (although the vent had virus)

and one paper says it's aerosolized for up to three hours (although not really discussing impact of ventilation, temperature, humidity, etc)

so I'm fully shrug emoji on this one. experts have differing opinions and I would err on the side of caution and at least go with a surgical mask in public places.

I don't feel right about using an N95 because I'm not high risk and HCWs need those more than me no doubt

To add to my point...this virus is 16 weeks old and there has been <6,000 dead, yet you think we are on a trajectory to have 25% of that in one day? Is that what you are saying?

I read seven foot AND real hot and friendly and was wondering where you have been picking up chicks.

Just to highlight why the scale and population difference matters.


The United States inflection point (to match the success of SK) would be at ~28,000 cases.

hbtheduce said:

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k2aggie07 said:

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Every western country has been between 20-30% daily increase of confirmed cases. Unless false positives are significant (and with that paper that said they may be 80%?! Who knows????) that is the floor for spread without quarantine. Scale absolutely is irrelevant when youre doubling every 3-4 of days. it gets real real fast.

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As a comparison of South Korea vs the US it is relevant.

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In 10 days, scale won't matter because we'll be at exactly the same point SK was today when only 6 of their people died.

Hopefully I'm wrong and we'll just have to deal with the economic fallout going forward.

swimmerbabe11 said:

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I read seven foot AND real hot and friendly and was wondering where you have been picking up chicks.

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Sounds like a Belter chick

when Italy ends up having more dead than China we'll come to grips that China's number was bull**** and probably 10x what they reported

Yeah dude. In Wuhan you had a pot of 16,000,000 people. When it's out in the world tour total pot is 7.7 billion.

If you just think of the US that's 320,000,000. If the US hits the same rate as Hubei province per capita is 30x the daily rate.

Pandemic math is yuk.

Mordred said:

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hbtheduce said:

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k2aggie07 said:

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Every western country has been between 20-30% daily increase of confirmed cases. Unless false positives are significant (and with that paper that said they may be 80%?! Who knows????) that is the floor for spread without quarantine. Scale absolutely is irrelevant when youre doubling every 3-4 of days. it gets real real fast.

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As a comparison of South Korea vs the US it is relevant.

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In 10 days, scale won't matter because we'll be at exactly the same point SK was today when only 6 of their people died.

Hopefully I'm wrong and we'll just have to deal with the economic fallout going forward.

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10k-20k people dying won't destroy the economy. The epic hysteria and shutting down entire industries for months will have larger effects.

I believe in addition to overall population, and perhaps more importantly is population density. I could have (and probably did) miss this, but haven't seen it mentioned.

Whiskey Jacket said:

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To add to my point...this virus is 16 weeks old and there has been <6,000 dead, yet you think we are on a trajectory to have 25% of that in one day? Is that what you are saying?

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Not sure if you saw my other response, but, no. I was just pointing out how stupid it was be to say "I hope we're like Italy!" when they've ****ed everything up... and scaling Italy to US sizes. That's all.

Completely agree. Most of Italy's cases are in one region. This comparison of countries is dumb. It should be by zip code or something like that.

Even if the numbers in China are 10x or 20x what is reported they are still pretty small for a country with 1.5 billion people.

cone said:

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when Italy ends up having more dead than China we'll come to grips that China's number was bull**** and probably 10x what they reported

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Looks like that happens in 5-6 days, unless current numbers change.

Ah...missed something then...I just am not seeing where these numbers are coming from. I guess time will tell.

It's dumb to think that if the US ends up with the same numbers as Italy then that is a good result? Considering we have 5x the population and 5x the hospital capacity to deal with those cases so the death rate is lower? Ok

Good thread from the front lines. Not sure what all the acronyms are

Big Al 1992 said:

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Good thread from the front lines. Not sure what all the acronyms are

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well that scares the **** out of me

Ehhh...may or may not be true, but I tend not to believe much of anything I read on tweeter

Just remember that rarely is good news ever posted, especially around here.

Everyone seems to seek out the worst possible things posted to Twitter.

hbtheduce said:

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10k-20k people dying won't destroy the economy. The epic hysteria and shutting down entire industries for months will have larger effects.

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Of course not, but what if it's 10k dead and a ****ty Q1, or 500k dead and a slightly better Q1? What if the scale is 100k - 1 million dead?

Seriously, where do you draw the line? Very smart people (and a lot of dumb ones) are having to make decisions with very imperfect information. They're seeing the same projections I'm looking at and talking to people who know a **** ton more than you or I, and those people are more often than not being pretty doom and gloom. My wife has spent the last three days sitting in the ****ing room for these conversations. They know that they're ****ing themselves over for public health reasons, and they're still doing it.

There's no easy answers. I vacillate hourly on whether we're doing the right thing (and maybe not enough), or if we're destroying the global economy for no reason. It sucks.

I like to look at numbers and make fun of stupid people here who don't like math because numbers are easy. This other **** is hard, and just makes me sad.

DSAg44 said:

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Big Al 1992 said:

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Good thread from the front lines. Not sure what all the acronyms are

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well that scares the **** out of me

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Then I'm glad I couldn't understand half of it.

Rapier108 said:

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Just remember that rarely is good news ever posted, especially around here.

Everyone seems to seek out the worst possible things posted to Twitter.

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Here's something good from Twitter:

In an emergency, HEB is the ***** They're gonna help Texans through this craziness too.

So... Is it time to start wearing my PAPR in public and washing with hibiclens???

Asking for a friend.

Big Al 1992 said:

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Would love to know if they vaped?

n_touch said:

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Big Al 1992 said:

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Would love to know if they vaped?

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Its apparently very common amongst college kids now days... I felt really old typing that last sentence BTW...

Mordred said:

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hbtheduce said:

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10k-20k people dying won't destroy the economy. The epic hysteria and shutting down entire industries for months will have larger effects.

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Of course not, but what if it's 10k dead and a ****ty Q1, or 500k dead and a slightly better Q1? What if the scale is 100k - 1 million dead?

Seriously, where do you draw the line? Very smart people (and a lot of dumb ones) are having to make decisions with very imperfect information. They're seeing the same projections I'm looking at and talking to people who know a **** ton more than you or I, and those people are more often than not being pretty doom and gloom. My wife has spent the last three days sitting in the ****ing room for these conversations. They know that they're ****ing themselves over for public health reasons, and they're still doing it.

There's no easy answers. I vacillate hourly on whether we're doing the right thing (and maybe not enough), or if we're destroying the global economy for no reason. It sucks.

I like to look at numbers and make fun of stupid people here who don't like math because numbers are easy. This other **** is hard, and just makes me sad.

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10k-20k dead means ~500,000 people got the disease. The only scary part about that is that 50-75k will need hospital attention.


Hospitals are the reason its worth using some social distancing. But you have also now created the hysteria where no one wants to fly, no one wants to go out to eat, and idiots are creating shortages.


Don't get me wrong, I'm fine with some short term pain, because a "2 week vacation" won't destroy most companies. But don't pretend that even 10x those numbers have a large impact on the economy (especially if most are retired).

Its the right thing we do, but the economic sacrifice is the hysteria and social distancing, its not the loss of life.