I think it depends where you are in spread, location of the disease, and how deadly it gets. At some point I think you say eff it and aim for herd immunity. The reason I say that is because we can make plans for a vaccine but who knows if we'll all take it or even make the vaccine. They tried to make a SARS vaccine and it made through animal testing, but no human trial that I know of.Dark_Knight said:
I personally don't agree with closing anything down. This flattening the curve would probably be more applicable to an epidemic that was deadlier.
Where was all this concern when H1N1 was going around? That was far deadlier.
China Coronavirus Outbreak Spreads; Hundreds Infected As Human-To-Human Transmission
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Last: 6 mo ago by ttu_85
Bleh
Which? Swine flu started in Mexico, so if it's US to US we're not only super early into this epidemic in the US, we also have basically no idea what's going on here at the moment.
I was talking world to world (which is 2009 US to 2020 world).
I was talking world to world (which is 2009 US to 2020 world).
According to NBC:
NBC News
NBC News
Quote:
Swine flu has caused nearly 10,000 deaths in the United States, part of an outbreak that has infected about 50 million Americans, government health officials said Thursday.
For those working at home.. important
https://twitter.com/annetdonahue/status/1238104296618700800?s=19
https://twitter.com/actioncookbook/status/1238157637608407051?s=19
Sounds like Hurricane Dougigedome is taking a victory lap.swimmerbabe11 said:
SIAPhttps://twitter.com/dougigem/status/1238583747588403200?s=19
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
All my dog does while I work is lay down and rip ass (boxer)
When you fall to your knees and ask God for help, don’t forget to fall back on your knees and say ‘thank you’ when He answers.- Steve Torrence
Ok, let's compare in December of 2020.
That needs to be adjusted per capita. 1,000 in a country of 60M is inherently less (edit: MORE) severe than 1,000 in a country of 320M. And those cases in Italy were highly localized to a single epidemic whereas ours seem to be multiple smaller epidemics.
That being said, each city may be in the same queue just another few days behind.
That being said, each city may be in the same queue just another few days behind.
So, testing doesn't stop the spread?OldArmy71 said:
As was predicted by a doctor quoted on this thread (Gottlieb?) South Korea's fatality rate has gone up again.
70-79 5.2%
80+ 8.75%
Overall, .89%
I thought South Korea had this whipped and were the model.
Typo?k2aggie07 said:
That needs to be adjusted per capita. 1,000 in a country of 60M is inherently less severe than 1,000 in a country of 320M.
I would argue 1,000 among 60M is MORE severe than 1,000 in 320M.
RyanAg08 said:
Is this maybe why testing wasnt done as fast?
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32133832?fbclid=IwAR3KtTRFTp9eb0aA-8ThVONEMGeGhecOnjMJtIblbClp8ufahx71HOFSWdg
Nah, they were refusing testing even people showing symptoms.
If we remain right on track with Italy then that is a great result for the US. We have 5x the population that Italy does.
k2aggie07 said:
That needs to be adjusted per capita. 1,000 in a country of 60M is inherently less severe than 1,000 in a country of 320M. And those cases in Italy were highly localized to a single epidemic whereas ours seem to be multiple smaller epidemics.
That being said, each city may be in the same queue just another few days behind.
Did you say that backwards or did I miss something?
Yes typo sorry. I meant the US is not as bad off as Italy even if we have the same number of cases... unless the cases are spread out there and not here.
Welp, now everyone else has to follow suit. This is gonna suck.
FWIW,
I have a buddy who has a buddy that's "high up in national security" that says domestic flights will be shut down soon. Again, friend of a friend thing.
My sister in law is an ER pharmacist in Seattle. She said today that they are already feeling the pinch of patients needing to be in the ICU or intubated.
Her husband (my BIL) is an infectious disease expert that is hired out to hospitals to advise on what drugs to use and yadda yadda. When I first started asking him about this a month + ago, I knew more about it than he did. Now he, and his wife, are on board that this is an issue that we should be concerned about.
They are both of the position that for most of us, no big deal, but that it's the overwhelming of the ICU that will make this horrible.
I have a buddy who has a buddy that's "high up in national security" that says domestic flights will be shut down soon. Again, friend of a friend thing.
My sister in law is an ER pharmacist in Seattle. She said today that they are already feeling the pinch of patients needing to be in the ICU or intubated.
Her husband (my BIL) is an infectious disease expert that is hired out to hospitals to advise on what drugs to use and yadda yadda. When I first started asking him about this a month + ago, I knew more about it than he did. Now he, and his wife, are on board that this is an issue that we should be concerned about.
They are both of the position that for most of us, no big deal, but that it's the overwhelming of the ICU that will make this horrible.
It's like you never took a math class. People are still going to die from this in South Korea... remember the people dying today got it ~2-3 weeks ago. We still don't know the true death rate. 6 people died in South Korea today and 9 died in the US, despite SK having 4x the known cases we do.OldArmy71 said:
As was predicted by a doctor quoted on this thread (Gottlieb?) South Korea's fatality rate has gone up again.
70-79 5.2%
80+ 8.75%
Overall, .89%DallasAg 94 said:So, testing doesn't stop the spread?
I thought South Korea had this whipped and were the model.
Which do you prefer:
or:
+ 2 more quotes (click to expand)JesusQuintana said:
Nobody in my home is dying from the coronavirus. I do however have a 14 year old daughter that was born at 24 weeks with chronic lung disease. I also have a 75 year old mother n law in my home with asthma. Outside of my home is my 74 year old father with 60% kidney function and other treatable health issues. Will anyone die in the next two weeks...unlikely but this virus takes a while to actually kill. Could this eventually have a very serious negative impact on my family...yes. Does this have anything to do with trump or politics...no. It has to do with common sense and critical thinking like u said. Are we exercising that right now in this country? Nope. We are cheering being out of school and instead of social distancing we are out to with eat with our buddies, at heb, at indoor batting practice and so on.dermdoc said:Fair enough and I have a special needs daughter who has been through three open heart surgeries. Blind in her left eye never drove and got her Masters walking to class.
And yes it does have to do with common sense. Has anything Trump or any politician said have anything to do with any of this? No.
And that is my point. Being "concerned" did nothing to help my daughter. Did it help you?
I have been in medicine since 1977. What does "distancing" mean? Two feet? Four feet? What is it?
DermDoc, I listened in on the infectious disease chief from the Utah Medical School's Grand Rounds yesterday and she was very clear Covid 19 is passed in heavy droplets, usually 3 feet or less from point of origin. A lot of folks were concerned about aerosol particles but the medical panel pretty much dispelled that as I understood the commentary.
That is very reassuring. I sure hope that is the case!
My wife went and visited the Dallas Emergency Response center today. She was impressed by the center, but also kinda blown away by how unprepared everybody is for what's going on. She said the City's response right now is at Level 2, with Level 5 being the max, which means it can definitely get a lot worse. Everybody is still staying pretty calm and measured with responses, but the numbers they're looking at aren't good.
On a lighter note, public messaging and PR for municipalities is a big part of her job, so it's always kinda fun to compare/contrast what local government does with what the WH is doing (hint: the WH is really bad at this).
On a lighter note, public messaging and PR for municipalities is a big part of her job, so it's always kinda fun to compare/contrast what local government does with what the WH is doing (hint: the WH is really bad at this).
Is this something they would do before...I don't know...let's say...a war begins?jpd301 said:https://twitter.com/nickschifrin/status/1238659105985900547?s=21https://twitter.com/nickschifrin/status/1238659211065724929?s=21
Think I'll still go with 7' just to be sure. Unless she is really hot and friendly.k2aggie07 said:
That is very reassuring. I sure hope that is the case!
+ 1 more quotes (click to expand)DallasAg 94 said:So, testing doesn't stop the spread?
I thought South Korea had this whipped and were the model.Mordred said:It's like you never took a math class. People are still going to die from this in South Korea... remember the people dying today got it ~2-3 weeks ago. We still don't know the true death rate. 6 people died in South Korea today and 9 died in the US, despite SK having 4x the known cases we do.
Which do you prefer:
or:
This graph comparison means nothing.
Please make the axis the same for an actual comparison.
+ 2 more quotes (click to expand)Mordred said:It's like you never took a math class. People are still going to die from this in South Korea... remember the people dying today got it ~2-3 weeks ago. We still don't know the true death rate. 6 people died in South Korea today and 9 died in the US, despite SK having 4x the known cases we do.
Which do you prefer:
or:hbtheduce said:
This graph comparison means nothing.
Please make the units the same for an actual comparison.
Units don't mean much of anything, it's rate of growth and shape of the curve that is important. I'm assuming you can see how SK's differs from ours.
A better comparison might have been Italy's as they and SK are at the exact same point in the outbreak as both hit an inflection point around Feb 25th, but their chart looks like ours, we're just 10 days behind them.
The shape is more important than the scale. Exponential growth is a *****.
Jinx.
k2aggie07 said:
That is very reassuring. I sure hope that is the case!ttu_85 said:Think I'll still go with 7' just to be sure. Unless she is really hot and friendly.
They recommend 6 feet out of caution. And uncontrolled sneezes propel droplets for certain. My microbiologist wife suggested going to bandannas like the old west on the theory that four layers of cotton cloth could provide protection similar to a mask. After all the mask is to contain the cough or sneeze, not protect you as the mask wearer. But I wager the bandanna along with a pair of my wraparound shooting glasses would provide a decent barrier (until I was stopped by police for being suspicious, of course) .
It actually means a lot. The scale affects the shape. And as pointed out over and over again if the US ends up being like Italy then that would be a great result for the US. Not sure why people keep using that as an example.
it's going back and forth
I think it's aerosolized and contagious that way but that not its main and most virulent form of attack
like you can get it just by being breathed on, but it's more infectious if you are around someone coughing
I would say that the deal with it being airborne is not necessarily you walking in a hallway at work and you're walking through a cloud of a secret virus. It'll disperse in open areas. It's enclosed spaces like elevators that I'd be more wary of.
And I don't care what the experts say - I think you should wear a surgical mask in public. Can't hurt might help. And i already don't touch my face.
I think it's aerosolized and contagious that way but that not its main and most virulent form of attack
like you can get it just by being breathed on, but it's more infectious if you are around someone coughing
I would say that the deal with it being airborne is not necessarily you walking in a hallway at work and you're walking through a cloud of a secret virus. It'll disperse in open areas. It's enclosed spaces like elevators that I'd be more wary of.
And I don't care what the experts say - I think you should wear a surgical mask in public. Can't hurt might help. And i already don't touch my face.
k2aggie07 said:
The shape is more important than the scale. Exponential growth is a *****.
Different scales exaggerate the shape. This is just hockey stick graph 2.0
You would expect a larger shape for America on a linear scale, because we have 7x the population.
I'm guessing based on the papers being published, anecdotal evidence, and how the flu works that transmission changes over time. I read a few papers that influenza A starts off aerosol and changes to droplet as primary vector. Of course seeing as we are still studying this (one paper was from 2019!) no one has any freaking clue about this current virus. Maybe we will know by the 2120 pandemic.
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