aggiehawg said:

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Rapier108 said:

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Stat Monitor Repairman said:

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Just heard that all of the Houston cases were thought to be from foreign travel ... except for one dude who had not traveled but appearently had gone to the Houston Rodeo cook off.

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As of now, that is correct, one from Italy, the rest from the Nile cruise in Egypt. They're still investigating the guy in Montgomery County to see if they can figure out how he got it.

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Do we even know for sure the Montgomery County guy actually has CV, yet?

Trying to follow this but it is getting more and more difficult as time goes by.

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It's "presumed positive" which means a result from the test kit showed positive, but they're waiting on the CDC to run their lab test which is will be definitive.

Bo Darville said:

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rgag12 said:

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Bo Darville said:

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rgag12 said:

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Bo Darville said:

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I Have Spoken said:

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IrishTxAggie said:

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Guessing we have finally hit a tipping point, and this will be a serious statement on the matter.

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Great, now Trump is on the liberal media conspiracy to prevent his own election. Someone should tell him this Is just the flu.

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It's tired. Just stop

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Nah, people parroting this dumb crap need their faces shoved in it.

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Making statements like that make you look like the one people shouldn't take seriously, not the person you are trying to make fun of.

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You are free to take posters as serious as you wish.

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Great. Good to know we shouldn't be taking you very seriously on this matter.

UpstateAg said:

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60 million cases worldwide in one year. 40 million more in the ten years following. Yeah, not dead, but this won't die after a year either. Yet, we don't really hear about the ole swine flu, do we? And how long did it take for the US to take White house action? And where was this type of panic? These numbers won't be near that (over a quarter million hospitalized in the US, 12k dead in the US, children mortality between the two)

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This seems to be more infectious and more deadly than the 2009 swine flu. And it was a big deal at the time. The biggest difference is that swine flu was an influenza A variant which means we have some baseline herd immunity against it.

I'd wait til the end of this to spike the football or compare totals. There are plenty of resources online that have examined the first 90 days of both, and right now COVID19 is winning.

FriscoKid said:

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k2aggie07 said:

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There are literal orders of magnitudes of difference in the number of people simultaneously in close quarters in a basketball arena vs a restaurant. As well as the geographic footprint of attendees drawn to an NCAA tournament game.

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You think that a person can get the entire stadium sick? Even three or four rows away would be an amazing feat. Next section over? Really?

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1 person? Of course not. But 20 to 30 could wreak havoc.

rgag12 said:

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Bo Darville said:

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rgag12 said:

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Bo Darville said:

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rgag12 said:

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Bo Darville said:

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I Have Spoken said:

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IrishTxAggie said:

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Guessing we have finally hit a tipping point, and this will be a serious statement on the matter.

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Great, now Trump is on the liberal media conspiracy to prevent his own election. Someone should tell him this Is just the flu.

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It's tired. Just stop

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Nah, people parroting this dumb crap need their faces shoved in it.

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Making statements like that make you look like the one people shouldn't take seriously, not the person you are trying to make fun of.

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You are free to take posters as serious as you wish.

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Great. Good to know we shouldn't be taking you very seriously on this matter.

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I care very little as to what "just the flu"'ers think. A few days ago you literally told us this was "in the flu family".

A good article that lays out the case for taking action now...

Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now

TLDR: A couple of key points:

China Case timeline


Yellow bar is official declaration of by date of diagnosis. Gray is based on onset of symptoms

US is vastly undertesting

(Tests through March 3)


Countries that act fast reduce the number of deaths at least by 10x.

Quote:

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This is what you can conclude:

• Countries that are prepared will see a fatality rate of ~0.5% (South Korea) to 0.9% (rest of China).
• Countries that are overwhelmed will have a fatality rate between ~3%-5%

Put in another way: Countries that act fast can reduce the number of deaths by ten. And that's just counting the fatality rate. Acting fast also drastically reduces the cases, making this even more of a no-brainer.

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Bo Darville said:

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FriscoKid said:

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k2aggie07 said:

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There are literal orders of magnitudes of difference in the number of people simultaneously in close quarters in a basketball arena vs a restaurant. As well as the geographic footprint of attendees drawn to an NCAA tournament game.

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You think that a person can get the entire stadium sick? Even three or four rows away would be an amazing feat. Next section over? Really?

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1 person? Of course not. But 20 to 30 could wreak havoc.

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If 20-30 people are going to a single game then it's already widespread and we are all getting exposed to this or already have been.

I don't recall saying any of that.

Let's use our thinking caps. One sick person goes to a basketball game. How likely is he to infect someone else? And, if he does test positive, how difficult will it be to trace his contacts at that game to help isolate them? How many geographic locations represented and therefore are potentially exposed?

Now do the same thought for a restaurant down the street from your house.

Even in your 3-4 row example, the numbers are not comparable.

No, he means if one person infects 20-30 at a game it could weak havoc. And that is very true.

FriscoKid said:

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I'm being quit serious. If you think that outdoor parades and bb games in huge arenas are so dangerous then you need to close down restaurants and department stores.

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Bo Darville said:

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rgag12 said:

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Bo Darville said:

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rgag12 said:

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Bo Darville said:

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rgag12 said:

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Bo Darville said:

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I Have Spoken said:

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IrishTxAggie said:

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Guessing we have finally hit a tipping point, and this will be a serious statement on the matter.

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Great, now Trump is on the liberal media conspiracy to prevent his own election. Someone should tell him this Is just the flu.

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It's tired. Just stop

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Nah, people parroting this dumb crap need their faces shoved in it.

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Making statements like that make you look like the one people shouldn't take seriously, not the person you are trying to make fun of.

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You are free to take posters as serious as you wish.

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Great. Good to know we shouldn't be taking you very seriously on this matter.

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I care very little as to what "just the flu"'ers think. A few days ago you literally told us this was "in the flu family".

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In regards to what you mentioned I corrected myself as I realized the small error in semantics.

For the record I don't care about people who can't see the similarities between this virus and the flu, so I guess we are even.

techno-ag said:

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lead said:

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---New deaths over the last 8 days in chronological order----

China: 38, 31, 30, 28, 27, 23, 17, 22. Total China deaths at 3162. China topped out at around 150 daily deaths.

Not China: 48, 53, 69, 78, 71, 202, 186, 258. Total 1130.

US: 4, 3, 1, 1, 0, 0, 8, 6. Total 25 (WHO numbers).

New Italy deaths: 28, 27, 41, 49, 37, 132, 97, 168. Total 631.

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Thanks. The numbers really help put things in perspective.

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Partial #s for today:





https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

PJYoung said:

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FriscoKid said:

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I'm being quit serious. If you think that outdoor parades and bb games in huge arenas are so dangerous then you need to close down restaurants and department stores.

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But where does it stop? What is considered a large public gathering? Anything over 500 people? 1,000 people?

Does one person on a plane infect the whole plane? That's much more "shared air".

How many people can the person who is working at the concessions stand expose? I think this is more likely the concern vs just you have it 2 rows behind someone.

It on the drink and you come sit and your 2 kids want a drink etc.

FriscoKid said:

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Bo Darville said:

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FriscoKid said:

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k2aggie07 said:

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There are literal orders of magnitudes of difference in the number of people simultaneously in close quarters in a basketball arena vs a restaurant. As well as the geographic footprint of attendees drawn to an NCAA tournament game.

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You think that a person can get the entire stadium sick? Even three or four rows away would be an amazing feat. Next section over? Really?

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1 person? Of course not. But 20 to 30 could wreak havoc.

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If 20-30 people are going to a single game then it's already widespread and we are all getting exposed to this or already have been.

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It is already widespread. The idea isn't to prevent us all to get it. It's to ease the sudden burden on hospitals and ICU;s.

k2aggie07 said:

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No, he means if one person infects 20-30 at a game it could weak havoc. And that is very true.

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CrazyRichAggie said:

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PJYoung said:

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FriscoKid said:

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I'm being quit serious. If you think that outdoor parades and bb games in huge arenas are so dangerous then you need to close down restaurants and department stores.

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But where does it stop? What is considered a large public gathering? Anything over 500 people? 1,000 people?

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As this ramps up I think you will see that # get smaller and smaller.

FriscoKid said:

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Does one person on a plane infect the whole plane? That's much more "shared air".

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Actually that's probably not true. Airplanes use HEPA filters and frequent air changes. Much more likely to get infected in the airport.

The Gov of Kentucky asked all churches to cancel services this weekend...I'd expect similar requests in various states in the near future. It will be interesting to see how many comply.

IrishTxAggie said:

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tysker said:

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Quote:

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I don't want to see the world burn but I wish we could get on with this and just get it over with.

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Also maybe a question for separate thread and there are a lot of assumptions built into this question but

How many of us would be a willing infected right now and get it over with? Kinda like a chicken pox party...

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Yes. I'm a 32 y/o nonsmoker with zero underlying health conditions. I've had hangovers last longer than this would lay me up.

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OK, i'm with you now. I think I might prefer to just get it and get it over with.

Bo Darville said:

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FriscoKid said:

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Bo Darville said:

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FriscoKid said:

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k2aggie07 said:

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There are literal orders of magnitudes of difference in the number of people simultaneously in close quarters in a basketball arena vs a restaurant. As well as the geographic footprint of attendees drawn to an NCAA tournament game.

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You think that a person can get the entire stadium sick? Even three or four rows away would be an amazing feat. Next section over? Really?

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1 person? Of course not. But 20 to 30 could wreak havoc.

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If 20-30 people are going to a single game then it's already widespread and we are all getting exposed to this or already have been.

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It is already widespread. The idea isn't to prevent us all to get it. It's to ease the sudden burden on hospitals and ICU;s.

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This is exactly the point. We don't know the actual R naught because a large percentage of these cases are mild. It is definitely high, much higher than the flu. Lets say even 5% are hospitalizations then you're going to overwhelm the hospitals from people who don't know they're sick infecting large numbers of these people at sporting events movie theatres and so forth. Shutting down larger public gatherings will slow the progress of this stuff. Is it going to prevent the spread? Not without draconian measures a lot of people won't comply with willingly. If you can't do that then you're going to have to at least spread out the impact and not overwhelm the hospitals and so forth.

Posting this because it is reportedly what Congress is being told.

Congressional doctor predicts 70-150 million U.S. coronavirus cases

Quote:

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Congress' in-house doctor told Capitol Hill staffers at a close-door meeting this week that he expects 70-150 million people in the U.S. roughly a third of the country to contract the coronavirus, two sources briefed on the meeting tell Axios.

Dr. Brian Monahan, the attending physician of the U.S. Congress, told Senate chiefs of staff, staff directors, administrative managers and chief clerks from both parties on Tuesday that they should prepare for the worst, and offered advice on how to remain healthy.

But other estimates, including statistical modeling from Harvard epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch, have said that somewhere between 20% and 60% of adults worldwide might catch the virus.

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Fake news?

VaultingChemist said:

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Posting this because it is reportedly what Congress is being told.

Congressional doctor predicts 70-150 million U.S. coronavirus cases

Quote:

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Congress' in-house doctor told Capitol Hill staffers at a close-door meeting this week that he expects 70-150 million people in the U.S. roughly a third of the country to contract the coronavirus, two sources briefed on the meeting tell Axios.

Dr. Brian Monahan, the attending physician of the U.S. Congress, told Senate chiefs of staff, staff directors, administrative managers and chief clerks from both parties on Tuesday that they should prepare for the worst, and offered advice on how to remain healthy.

But other estimates, including statistical modeling from Harvard epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch, have said that somewhere between 20% and 60% of adults worldwide might catch the virus.

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Fake news?

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Could be what the address to the nation is all about.

VaultingChemist said:

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Posting this because it is reportedly what Congress is being told.

Congressional doctor predicts 70-150 million U.S. coronavirus cases

Quote:

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Congress' in-house doctor told Capitol Hill staffers at a close-door meeting this week that he expects 70-150 million people in the U.S. roughly a third of the country to contract the coronavirus, two sources briefed on the meeting tell Axios.

Dr. Brian Monahan, the attending physician of the U.S. Congress, told Senate chiefs of staff, staff directors, administrative managers and chief clerks from both parties on Tuesday that they should prepare for the worst, and offered advice on how to remain healthy.

But other estimates, including statistical modeling from Harvard epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch, have said that somewhere between 20% and 60% of adults worldwide might catch the virus.

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Fake news?

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Did they use the same calculator Pelosi used to come up with the 500 million a month job losses?

k2aggie07 said:

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FriscoKid said:

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Does one person on a plane infect the whole plane? That's much more "shared air".

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Actually that's probably not true. Airplanes use HEPA filters and frequent air changes. Much more likely to get infected in the airport.

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Exactly. Airplanes have not been good vectors for transmission in a long time due to the heavy filtration used on the recirculated air. As an example, the Boeing 787 has 15 HEPA filters installed in its air system. This is in addition to using less recirculated air than other models of aircraft due to the bleedless air intake system.

The people most at risk of contracting something on a plane are the flight attendants, or those sitting next to a sick person.

WHO report saying that about 1-5% chance to infect others that a covid positive person comes in close contact with.

So about one in every 20-100 people a sick person comes in close contact will catch this.

WHO report also saying mainly transmitted by breathing, not even really coughing.

k2aggie07 said:

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No, he means if one person infects 20-30 at a game it could weak havoc. And that is very true.

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If 20-30 people could get infected from one person at a basketball game, we are effed each year this virus pops up from her on out. We will basically all get this thing if it is even half THAT easily spread.