agree with you that there need to be calibrated triggers

clearly Italy waited too long to do certain things

the problem is we don't have the diagnostics to verify where we are in the epidemic

maybe the virologists can model it accurately enough to make the recommendation

Quote:

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• Texas A&M University-Sponsored Travel Outside the US

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Unfortunately this is inaccurate. There are several groups which went to Europe within the last week.

A&M only banned travel to the worst hit countries.

PJYoung said:

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I just got the tail end of the governor of Colorado on CNN

He said their state tests have a turn around time of 24 days!

But the good news is they are ramping up private testing that is currently 3-4 days.

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And some of you want government ran healthcare? Ridiculous!!!

Or stoned

KorbinDallas said:

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DSAg44 said:

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i'm gonna set the o/u on this thread to 400 pages. buckle up.

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ill take over

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I'm here to collect

Edit: I'm not a gambler, do I have to wait for 401?

Edit: Thought the post I replied to was about a post I made in which the quote function failed.

So I am not 100% anti-quarantine. I think it wouldnt be terrible if people were allowed to work from home or even maybe keep their kids home from school if they so choose.

Seems like if you do 100% quarantine and things slow / stop here....great....but what happens when that one plane arrives with a sick passenger and he coughs on a flight attendent and we are back to square one.

Do we stop all international travel?

I just struggle to see how this thing is stopped with the # of cases (known and unknown)

that's fine

put me down with 95% confidence of one outbreak in a major US city/region by May 1 that requires strict quarantine to break the epidemic

similar to North Italy

But you said the hospitals would be overrun by mid-April?

Whiskey Jacket said:

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But you said the hospitals would be overrun by mid-April?

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See, washing hands is helping!

cone said:

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that's fine

put me down with 95% confidence of one outbreak in a major US city/region by May 1 that requires strict quarantine to break the epidemic

similar to North Italy

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So now we've gone from we're only a few weeks away from Italy to May 1 to enforce a similar quarantine?

You must be getting tired from pushing that goal post back more and more each day..

KorbinDallas said:

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Here is a good example of hysteria.

Flight diverted after passengers became unruly when passenger started sneezing

https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/flights/2020/03/10/flight-diverted-after-passengers-became-disruptive-over-someone-coughing/5009043002/

If people were educated on the true symptoms they would know sneezing is not one of them. It's either end of the world or just the flu with most people. We need to come to a middle ground FAST before this gets out of hand.

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A bunch of us called this in first couple pages of this thread -back in January. It is high allergy season right now - lots of colds, coughs, sniffles. Expect more flights diverted/quarantined for the hypochondriacs.

Whiskey Jacket said:

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So...how many people do you think are going to get sick in the US? Deaths?

Since you are certain our healthcare system is going to get overrun at some point? When do you think that will be?

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I think we'll have 1%ish mortality. Probably tens of millions of cases. So hundreds of thousands of deaths.

Now, if people quarantine, take **** seriously, I think we can avoid a lot of that.

Y'all don't understand that most ICUs are operating at close to max capacity and that all of the other diseases that put people in the ICU aren't taking a break while this thing is going on. There's going to be collateral damage as well. That's where the danger is. Not that we can't take care of these people, but we don't have enough people and resources to handle the surge.

If we could ecmo every single one of these people, we may have a death rate of 0.1% but we won't be able to

An actual good thread on Twitter that isn't panicking. Good info on what's happening on the front lines.

Swine flu had 12,000 deaths...you think this is going to be 15-20X more? Everyone is entitled to their opinions, I am just trying to understand the rationale for coming to this conclusion.

For the record, I think we will see 5-8M confirm infected (all cases not just severe)

I'm about 70% confident that at least one regional system will be overrun by mid-April

when we say hospitals, it's not everywhere all at once

but the west coast is a really big, populated area. Western Washington having to lockdown to alleviate a mass senior death event would be highly traumatic.

Whiskey Jacket said:

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Swine flu had 12,000 deaths...you think this is going to be 15-20X more? Everyone is entitled to their opinions, I am just trying to understand the rationale for coming to this conclusion.

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Well, during testimony before Congress this morning, Dr. Fauci (Head of Natl Inst of Infection Diseases) said that if the U.S. remains complacent, there will be millions of infected individuals.

What raised my eyebrow is that he said "remains complacent"...as if everything done so far falls under the "complacent" category. (this was my translation of what he said...he may not have meant it that way)

not trying to be overly alarmist, but i do believe we are largely blind to the size of the iceberg in some metro areas and at some point the contract tracing isn't going to be enough to stave off the epidemic. you would need wide-scale diagnostics.

and i do think if you do some seemingly severe actions now, you can save pain later. two weeks now to save May/June.

that's my take. feel free to bookmark. i've been hoping to be wrong for almost two months now.

Looks like Montgomery ISD just cancelled school for tomorrow and Friday. Their Spring break is next week

lunchbox said:

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Whiskey Jacket said:

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Swine flu had 12,000 deaths...you think this is going to be 15-20X more? Everyone is entitled to their opinions, I am just trying to understand the rationale for coming to this conclusion.

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Well, during testimony before Congress this morning, Dr. Fauci (Head of Natl Inst of Infection Diseases) said that if the U.S. remains complacent, there will be millions of infected individuals.

What raised my eyebrow is that he said "remains complacent"...as if everything done so far falls under the "complacent" category.

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Minimal testing, no screening at airports, multiple diagnosed cases throughout the US and quarantines unlikely until the spread is exponential (which we don't really know because we don't test). The only thing we did correct was shut down travel early on, but it's here now, and we need to continue to get ahead of this.

**** just got real

Officials confirmed the Montgomery County case was not travel related & could be the first known case of community spread in the area. Montgomery ISD is shutting down for Spring Break early for cleaning. Seems related.

Also, Corpus Christi ISD is notifying parents that there could have been an exposure. Corpus is having a press conference at noon.

Democrats.

Bo Darville said:

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Proposition Joe said:

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Bo Darville said:

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PJYoung said:

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Bo Darville said:

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That's what I don't understand. If the closings aren't staggered and occur only in the next few weeks whats the point?

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https://www.vox.com/2020/3/10/21171481/coronavirus-us-cases-quarantine-cancellation


It's epidemiology 101 - everything we are doing now it an attempt to flatten this curve and move cases out to wider period of time so hospitals don't get over run like they are in Iran and Italy.

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I get that. But if we are all closing at the same time and for the same duration then I think we are shifting the curve rightward rather than flattening it.

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?

The whole point of closing is that you stop the spread and x% of people who get it and would have spread it are instead able to be identified and properly quarantined.

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But unless you get most or all, it will still just pop back up a few weeks later and you're back at square one.

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Ignoring that it gives you a chance to get most or all, the biggest upside to containment is simply easing the burden on the health care system all at one time.

cone said:

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**** just got real

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Good lord. Mr. I'm not an alarmist.

JJMt said:

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Quote:

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Cones shctick has become old. It's pretty easy to guess who posts each posts on this thread without reading who it was first

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Disagree - Cone's posts seem fairly straight forward and factual without emotion or hyperbole.

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During a crisis, the best choice is to blame the bearer of bad news.

This is the real damage the overdone panic can cost. People will lose jobs, expected income, from cancelling this. There is basically zero evidence of any community spread in Houston right?

Turner is an idiot. Not surprised.

J. Walter Weatherman said:

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This is the real damage the overdone panic can cost. People will lose jobs, expected income, from cancelling this. There is basically zero evidence of any community spread in Houston right?

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There seems to be one in Montgomery County.

But once again, tests aren't typically being run unless you have some sort of travel history.

as of this morning I have reason to believe that is inaccurate

cone said:

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I'm about 70% confident that at least one regional system will be overrun by mid-April

when we say hospitals, it's not everywhere all at once

but the west coast is a really big, populated area. Western Washington having to lockdown to alleviate a mass senior death event would be highly traumatic.

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Well I am about 99% confident you pull stuff out of your ass. You have no way of projecting this. If you are going to make such claims at least try to make a case.

J. Walter Weatherman said:

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This is the real damage the overdone panic can cost. People will lose jobs, expected income, from cancelling this. There is basically zero evidence of any community spread in Houston right?

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https://www.khou.com/mobile/article/news/health/coronavirus/montgomery-county-patient-tests-presumptive-positive-for-coronavirus/285-f451a96e-c9d0-47b1-9903-12ed7434fa30

Confirmed community spread in Montgomery county. Also, the Egypt river cruise people have been back in Houston since before Ash Wednesday. No way there isn't community spread going on elsewhere. We're just not testing enough yet.