HumbleAg04 said:

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Over reacting = preparation.

Rather be prepared than dead.

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How old are you?. Smoker? Bad immunity? Then yes prepare. If not live your life

Mr.Infectious said:

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Back on topic.... at some point we'll have to decide if we just need to let it run it's course or try to quarantine everyone and everything.


The constant unexpected disruptions could be worse than the disease. I'm starting to think we say **** it and let it run free.

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This is my thinking, but sadly I don't think it's an option at the moment. Eventually this thing is going to run wild whether we like it or not. It may be only fractionally worse than other illnesses of its kind, but not by much.

However the media and the public have way overhyped this thing now. So if a large group of people get it in a developed western country, mass panic will ensue and people will get hurt from the panic. So the government is kind of backed into a corner, they have to try to quarantine. Until the vaccine is developed and the public has something to psychologically latch onto this unreasonable hysteria over every new case will remain.

claym711 said:

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You referenced taking a crash course in virology.what have you learned about covid?

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1. I don't claim to be an expert... at all.
2. Most of my research was basic virulogy to understand the context of the virus
3. We have no natural immunity to covid... means longer time before symptoms meaning more time for unknown contact transmission. We have natural immunity to flu... so we have symptoms much earlier in the process. This is big reason for concern
4. The spike structure of the attachment proteins is possibly far more efficient than other sars viruses. Meaning higher probably of attachment, meaning infection rate is higher which probably also affects efficiency of spread.
5. The permissive cells (target cells) are in the lungs, heart and kidneys... so those organs will see damage.
6. If I understand correctly, the lack of natural immunity can cause an overreaction by the adaptive immunity system of immune systems that are compromised causing a cytokine storm in effected areas, most critically the lungs... resulting in inflammation (pneumonia)
7. Its a RNA virus making it unstable (flu is as well), the severity of mutation I believe is debatable... this could have effects on vaccination effectiveness.

Smarter folks than me can feel free to rip this apart. I welcome it. I want to know the truth... I can handle being proven wrong. Doesn't bother me.

Think of it this way.

A vaccine is a pipe dream. Same w the hope of summer. Warm weather will only drop the R0 a little. Flu slows because of the R0 around 1. This is in the 3 to 6 range. Way above pandemic levels.

Even if they had a 100% cure vaccine today, it will take months to produce and distribute enough to make any sort of impact. And truth be told no one other than First Responders, healthcare, critical infrastructure workers, and military are getting it in the first wave. Texags folks won't be high on the priority list...

Vaccine trials take time and what are the chances that they nail it with the first thing they try to develop. Pretty low....



It's going to spread no matter what, might as well focus all efforts on home based anti-viral treatment options for mild cases and get really good and efficient at processing severe cases in hospitals.

Dr. Drew tells the media to shut up about Coronavirus. Interesting interview.

What does Rosie have to say about it?

Seems like to me a lot of doctors are saying the same thing. All the gloom and doom seems to be media spin and opinions (based on false information) just my opinion

Safe at Home said:

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Dr. Drew tells the media to shut up about Coronavirus. Interesting interview.

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isn't that old? China had 300 deaths weeks ago.

cisgenderedAggie said:

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What does Rosie have to say about it?

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Eh, at least Drew is an actual physician. Rosie is only an expert on twinkies.

Safe at Home said:

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Dr. Drew tells the media to shut up about Coronavirus. Interesting interview.

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That was taped 26 days ago.

cisgenderedAggie said:

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What does Rosie have to say about it?

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What does Ja Rule have to say about this?

JJMt said:

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Quote:

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6. If I understand correctly, the lack of natural immunity can cause an overreaction by the adaptive immunity system of immune systems that are compromised causing a cytokine storm in effected areas, most critically the lungs... resulting in inflammation (pneumonia)

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If this is true (probably is), then would taking stuff to enhance immunity actually be counterproductive?

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Interesting thought... I have no idea. From a vaccination standpoint, if the virus were stable enough that the vaccine were actually effective, that would make the future adaptive response more efficient... possibly reducing the chance of said storm? I don't know... like I said, I'm no expert. Hopefully other, more trained folks, can tutor us in the science of it.

There goes the warm weather theory.

How so?

PJYoung said:

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Safe at Home said:

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Dr. Drew tells the media to shut up about Coronavirus. Interesting interview.

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That was taped 26 days ago.

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This was yesterday. A lot of facts and truth in the first 5 or so minutes.

Eh, warm weather will only diminish the transmission due to people being further apart and not couped up indoors.

Interesting article on how contagious it is....
https://www.popsci.com/story/health/how-diseases-spread/

Mr.Infectious said:

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There goes the warm weather theory.

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what does it say? I don't speak hot female.

Experts in this site were saying R0 is between 3 and 6....

TheCougarHunter said:

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Living in Japan, few things to note:

Almost all major museums, stadiums and tourist attractions closed until further notice.

Schools are being closed for the next month at least throughout the country.

I'm in Yokohama and the city is far less busy than usual. Almost everyone wearing masks.

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Have they not been notified that this is just a vast liberal media conspiracy and just the flu?

I don't think there's any true experts in this thread. Numbers have been cited from many places, some better than others.

The correct answer is probably "Not enough information to know for sure."

Mr Infectious- how does a case in Ecuador negate the warm weather theory?

I know of no warm weather theories that state it cannot exist in warm weather. This is your thread and dismissing "warm weather theories" based on a limited number (1 in this case) is myopic.

Slowing from R0 of three to two is still pandemic level.... this thing maybe in the 6 range.

Got to be below 1 to stop.

And I've said it a number of times in this thread, the average American spends 90% of their time indoors..... gyms, offices, grocery stores, concerts, airports, homes, trains, buses, subways, schools, etc. that is where the virus spreads, not on the wind blowing across the country......

the best thing about summer is that the Sun helps boost vitamin D. Use it.

Almost everything I've seen estimates R0 between 2-4. NCoV has launched well past SARS on like timeline, so I assume it's gonna be well above other coronaviruses

Today's high in Quito is 15 degrees colder than Montgomery County's. Singapore is literally the only country this is in now with consistently warm/hot weather this time of year and we have seen extremely slow spread there.

what we need is data for the measure of severity.
How many patients with the virus have mild symptoms only? ie some coughing sneezing runny nose etc.
I have read 80-90% have these mild symptoms only.

That data would do as much to calm the panic short of a vaccine announced.
Chinese need to provide some data on that (but will they). Right now based on news coverage it looks as tho
everyone has to go sit in an infirmary or hospital w doctors and nurses in hazmat suits.
These look like scenes out of Chernobyl which is the main source of fright.

I don't understand Dr. Drew's logic.

Hysteria in the media is contributing to supply chain problems with medicines made in China?

There was just an interview on fox with a couple who has it. The husbands exact words were that we need to all just calm down. How much more factual can you get than that?

Whiskey Jacket said:

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There was just an interview on fox with a couple who has it. The husbands exact words were that we need to all just calm down. How much more factual can you get than that?

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Easy to say when he's accepted his fate.

The guy who was released from quarantine and hacking on air while sharing a water bottle with his kid? Haha. I'm sure we will find out within a couple of weeks that he has it.

they were likely shills paid by Trump to say that. (liberal conspiracy mongers)

B-1 83 said:

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Agnzona said:

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Swine flu killed 12k Americans, it cost 1% of GDP, this is a huge nothing burger. Likely will not be as bad as swine flu or influenza, taking precautions, smart, over reacting dumb. The media is certainly over reacting. Any company limiting travel in the US is Likely over reacting.

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Sure, now combine Corona illness/deaths with the normal flu illnesses/deaths and there is a potential problem not to be ignored

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This is what drives me crazy about the "it's just the flu" people.

This is INCREMENTAL to the flu, and everything else, with a higher mortality rate. People will now die of BOTH.

MATH, people, MATH!

Whiskey Jacket said:

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My wife and I have a trip to Italy coming up the first week of May. We are trying to determine if we should go ahead and cancel or wait and see.

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Where are y'all going? We're supposed to be there the first week of May also.