titan said:
John Francis Donaghy said:
TAMUallen said:
There could be a massive revolt but the timing isnt ideal for either side. However, if the party starts to be viewed as the protected (from the virus or as the cause itself) while the citizens start falling off in massive numbers then threatened people act in extraordinary ways
I'm not arguing that there's going to be a revolt. I'm arguing that quarantining a few cities of people for a couple of weeks is not an unusually heavy-handed response for the Chinese.
We in the US would see that as an unheard of response to an apocalyptic scenario. China routinely imprisons it's own citizens hundreds of thousands at a time. Having a few cities of people stay home for a week or so is not the Defcon 1 level reponse some in this thread are assuming it is. They run their country very differently than a western power, and you have to view their actions in light of their norms, not ours.
Now THAT is very illuminating observation. So you do see that here, or in Europe, or even South America---that response would be off the dial in its implication. I even think it would be for Russia. But you are saying no, not for China. The bold then is true? If that is true, then it might explain some of their ire at us "making it bigger than it is" -- without them grasping that to us such shut downs are mind-boggling. Hmmm....
I've been struggling with how to respond to these types of questions. Is it outside the norm to think the Chinese gov't apparatus would forcibly quarantine 400 million people; I think the answer is no. Given their absolute lockdown on power and the threat to social stablity; and ultimately Party stablity; they have both the governmental will, the Party will and ability (Local and Federal police structures; and Security police structures) to execute such broad reaching actions. Is it unusual that they have seen the need to take such sweeping actions affecting 1/3 of their nation; yes. Signaling there is a significant issue that requires this extreme reaction is far from normal. They don't like admitting something got away from them and that they are not 100% in control of their destiny. I don't think there is any doubt that this is highly unusual and disruptive. They are obviously gravely concerned. Xi and his chronies; and the nation in general, fears social disruption and chaos. All Xi's actions have been to centralize power under him and reduce local/regional autonomy.
I have 22 years of experience working inside of China; lived their for a year back in 2006 in what was at the time the southern manufacturing hub for the country prior to things moving inland to Chengdu or Chongqing; and lived in Japan during SARS. During SARS, I never experienced a forced quarantine from entering China. They did not execute sweeping national or regional quarantines of anything near what we are seeing now. There were airport screenings both entering and exiting China and countries in the region at the time.
I have seen what they are willing to do to force their will on their people. Tibet, the Sichwan region and Xinjiang; all under Xi have undergone a massive transformation. Millions have been "relocated". These are massive geographical areas. In the Tibetan areas; they have moved millions out of their traditional isolated mountainous homes into villages of minimally about 60k people. Entire cities that didn't exist in my 1st trip to Sichuan, sprung up overnight within 2 years. Complete infrastructure, hotels, train stations, HDB's, et al; and fully populated. Dozens of these cities. In all three of these regions, Security Police presence is very visible in all public areas. It is normal for armed Security police in hotel lobbies 24/hrs; patrolling the streets, etc. In Tibet and Sichuan, the Llama's are the main source of trouble for them. In general, there are checkpoints about every 50 miles that require you to pull over and the vehicle and occupants to be inspected. I have been denied entry to entire counties due to local "unrest". I have seen the security police convoys being rushed in to address issues. In Xinjiang, the Muslim populations are the issue. Traveling in Xinjian is still relatively unhindered in the northern parts; this is beautiful Alpine country similar to what you see in Switzerland or Northern Italy...but not the South where the camps have been built. Similar to regions in Tibet and the Tibetan plateau, the further you approach those areas; the more restricted the travel.
Whether we ever get the truth of the virus origins; I would doubt. Transparency with the outside world on something like this would likely only come accidentally with the translation of some internal discussion that was not meant for outside consumption. In Xi's writings, he is quite specific on his taboos; like freedom of the press, inalienable rights apart from the states, western style democracy, etc. Xi is an absolute dictator who has been consumed with centralization of power in Mao-ist fashion since he came to power.
Sorry for the long winded response.
“It was miraculous. It was almost no trick at all, he saw, to turn vice into virtue and slander into truth, impotence into abstinence, arrogance into humility, plunder into philanthropy, thievery into honor, blasphemy into wisdom, brutality into patriotism, and sadism into justice. Anybody could do it; it required no brains at all. It merely required no character.”
Joseph Heller, Catch 22
