I'm not promoting that people follow suit. it's warning. People are a holes....

I didn't think you were, just trying to be light and witty. Sorry.
Peeps are gross yall.

Mr.Infectious said:

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Watch out when going outside.

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That person got smoked to the ground

really cool tool someone shared on another thread from University of Washington:
https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

And the paper is interesting reading too:
http://www.healthdata.org/sites/default/files/files/research_articles/2020/covid_paper_MEDRXIV-2020-043752v1-Murray.pdf

My zip code is still purple for now.

Mr.Infectious said:

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University Park the highest. People back from Italy?

IrishTxAggie said:

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Toptierag2018 said:

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Once again deaths are multiplying by the day. 200 deaths in a day, another new record. If anyone thinks this won't hit 1000 dead a day they have another thing coming.

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1000/day in the US? Bet ya a bottle of bourbon it won't

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I'm a addict and I don't have my sports betting, I'll take that bet for <$100 bottle.

And let me add, I like some whom you rightfully mock on here, I genuinely hope I am wrong here but the trend is scarily logarithmic and we're only a few days into massive action. Hopefully what we have done starts to bend the curve sooner and I am wrong here. If you're in Houston I'd meet you for a drink either way.

k2aggie07 said:

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really cool tool someone shared on another thread from University of Washington:
https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

And the paper is interesting reading too:
http://www.healthdata.org/sites/default/files/files/research_articles/2020/covid_paper_MEDRXIV-2020-043752v1-Murray.pdf

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Thanks, those (especially the first) are great... but sobering.

Mr.Infectious said:

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75225 zip that is pink is Preston Hollow, where W lives

Well yeah, celebrities' tests were done a week ago and processed in a day. Anyone who drove to get in a 400-car long line will probably have results in a week.

Jesus.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2005689?query=TOC

k2aggie07 said:

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Jesus.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2005689?query=TOC

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What's the current ratio of positive test to hospitalization needed in the US right now?

around 15-20% I believe. Haven't checked cdc numbers in a few days.

A 3D printed part can convert one respirator to serve about 9 people. FDA approved.

Is it FDA approved? Just saw NY approved splitting. Regardless, it's stupid we're having these discussions.

k2aggie07 said:

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around 15-20% I believe. Haven't checked cdc numbers in a few days.

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So 180k to 450k needing ventilation and not all at one time, we'll be ok. The article doesn't account for the splitting, new ones being made and the lag in time of when they're needed.

He did get a "Jesus" out of it though.

Please go find me the last time Nature was publishing an article making recommendations on triaging patients.

We talk about numbers a lot. I don't know man, for me that made it real. That stuff doesn't happen here.

I'm a little hesitant to re-post this given some prior COVID-19 website models being developed by silicon valley tech guys w/o significant virology experience. The chart that was circulated when Dallas County went under the SIP is a direct product from that team.

This one seems more accredited, but, as with any forecast model, take it with a grain of salt: https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

DX2011 said:

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IrishTxAggie said:

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Toptierag2018 said:

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Once again deaths are multiplying by the day. 200 deaths in a day, another new record. If anyone thinks this won't hit 1000 dead a day they have another thing coming.

---

1000/day in the US? Bet ya a bottle of bourbon it won't

---

I'm a addict and I don't have my sports betting, I'll take that bet for <$100 bottle.

And let me add, I like some whom you rightfully mock on here, I genuinely hope I am wrong here but the trend is scarily logarithmic and we're only a few days into massive action. Hopefully what we have done starts to bend the curve sooner and I am wrong here. If you're in Houston I'd meet you for a drink either way.

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I believe some betting sites now let you bet on the weather now

Cellular data tracking CV. Pretty damn powerful tool.

Encouraging news from Washington state: Leveling Off

IrishTxAggie said:

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It's the flu. Know how many people died of the flu in the US last year; About 56,000... This is nothing. Just fear mongering.

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You're right Irish. Two + months later and a large majority are locked in their homes with a death count if ~1300 compared to the average flu deaths at 50,000 yearly. Something doesn't add up.

Fitch said:

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I'm a little hesitant to re-post this given some prior COVID-19 website models being developed by silicon valley tech guys w/o significant virology experience. The chart that was circulated when Dallas County went under the SIP is a direct product from that team.

This one seems more accredited, but, as with any forecast model, take it with a grain of salt: https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

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This model seems pretty reasonable.

The potential for 81,000 deaths line up pretty well with the newer estimates being put out.

The one variable I'm not as confident in is they have us effectively in a full decline on the death rate from here on out.

Given how big the US is, I'm less confident that we won't have a flair up somewhere. On the flip side, we are hitting 90 degrees in Houston today and I guess we'll see if that plays a role as well.

interesting thread

YouBet said:

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While I live in Dallas (a liberal city), this whole event has absolutely convinced me beyond doubt that I will never live in a blue state, large city and living in a large city period is not in my long term interests.

Blue governments are proving to the world their desire and plan for an Orwellian society. They are/were just waiting for the right event or crisis to enact it for the "greater good".

My next home will be out and away.

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Yeah. Dallas should really be ashamed of themselves. To use the covidactnow data as gospel is borderline criminal.

Sure hope yall remember it when it comes to voting.

https://int.nyt.com/data/documenthelper/6819-covid-19-response-plan/d367f758bec47cad361f/optimized/full.pdf

interesting

Beat the Hell said:

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BTH's List of Mr. Infectious statements:

• Warm weather theory debunked (link)
• CV may bankrupt the health insurance industry (link)
• CV will cost Trump the re-election (link)
• CV may make BOTH parties will be reconsider their choices (link)
• This is shaping up to be a once in 100 years storm

Looking forward to the silver... link

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Got any others to add to this list?

Let it play out to the end.....we are still really early In the game.

AgLiving06 said:

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YouBet said:

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While I live in Dallas (a liberal city), this whole event has absolutely convinced me beyond doubt that I will never live in a blue state, large city and living in a large city period is not in my long term interests.

Blue governments are proving to the world their desire and plan for an Orwellian society. They are/were just waiting for the right event or crisis to enact it for the "greater good".

My next home will be out and away.

---

Yeah. Dallas should really be ashamed of themselves. To use the covidactnow data as gospel is borderline criminal.

Sure hope yall remember it when it comes to voting.

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We won't. You can't get elected as a Republican in Dallas proper anymore. Those days are gone. Almost every elected position is a Democrat.

YouBet said:

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AgLiving06 said:

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YouBet said:

---

While I live in Dallas (a liberal city), this whole event has absolutely convinced me beyond doubt that I will never live in a blue state, large city and living in a large city period is not in my long term interests.

Blue governments are proving to the world their desire and plan for an Orwellian society. They are/were just waiting for the right event or crisis to enact it for the "greater good".

My next home will be out and away.

---

Yeah. Dallas should really be ashamed of themselves. To use the covidactnow data as gospel is borderline criminal.

Sure hope yall remember it when it comes to voting.

---

We won't. You can't get elected as a Republican in Dallas proper anymore. Those days are gone. Almost every elected position is a Democrat.

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Your one Republican county commissioner hasn't been any better. He has been fully behind all of the draconian measures, including his condescending rants on Facebook.

cone said:

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interesting thread

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This is impossible to implement in the US and I mean that with all sincerity. Japan is a high trust, homogeneous society where everyone behaves in a similar manner. The US is a diverse, low trust society where disparate groups of people do not trust other disparate groups of people. We are extremely racially stratified, which has been repeatedly proven to cause significant problems with social interactions and much more. Further, we have significant portions of the population with much lower IQs than anything seen in Japan.

Our government could try this and ask citizens to do it but large portions of the population would either not listen or not care at all.

These behavior changing measures absolutely will not work in a highly diverse population. Despite no one really talking about it, our diversity is a massive net negative with regards to controlling disease spread.