Warning: This post is going to be almost as bad as some of the YouTube SW Theory videos out there. Just letting you know.
So, after sleeping for 10 or 15 minutes last night, I've gone back to thinking about the Mandalorian pretty much non stop. Lost in my initial viewing of the episode last night is the issue that the Armorer has been lying to Din about Mandalore. Specifically that it's uninhabitable and that the mines were destroyed. Seeing as how she's the keeper - unofficial or official - of all their lore, and seems to have some sort of leadership mantle among the Children of the Watch, that seems pretty significant that she's inventing a narrative to keep everyone away. from their ancestral home.
With Din now having bathed, albeit briefly in the Living Waters, I have no doubt he'll be making a beeline straight back to whatever planet the rest of the Mandos are on to be integrated back into the clan, but because he's a dumb dummy, he's almost certainly also going to spill the beans about Mandalore not being cursed, the air being breathable, things living on and below the surface, and the existence of the Mythosaur. I'm sure he's convinced that the Armorer was just mistaken, not making it up. Considering that the Armorer is the one who told him that the return of the Mythosaur would symbolize the rise of a new Mandalore, and the importance of the Darksaber, which he happens to have, you would have to assume that if the rest of the CotW believed him, the Armorer's days of running the show would be short lived.
While she's a bad ass character, it's very sus that doesn't have a real name. All of the Mandos are like characters on Game of Thrones, very proud of their houses. Her not having one doesn't fit in with any part of their culture. The visual clues about her probable allegiance with Maul's faction of Death Watch during the Clone Wars doesn't do her many favors either.
Now, if Mando convinces Bo Katan to return with him to where the Watch is holed up to convince them that Mandalore is inhabitable and the Mythosaur still lives, things seem like they might get really nasty. The Armorer knows who Bo is, and my gut tells me that Bo knows who the Armorer is too, but maybe doesn't realize she's alive and running that faction, since she washed her hands of the Watch way back when.
Bo associates that red armor and the horns with the faction that murdered her sister. She won't be happy to see it again. especially with big boy Vizla a relative of Pre Vizla who led the overthrow of Satine's rule (with Bo's support), only to lose the Darksaber to Maul.
Rewatching Chapter 17 and that long pause that the Armorer takes after Din says he'll be able to come back and be redeemed if he bathes in the Mines before she says "This is the Way" makes me think she sent him to Mandalore assuming he'd get killed - either by the monsters, or the weirdo cyborg droid thing, or even the Mythosaur itself - and 2 of those 3 would have happened if not for Grogu/Bo Katan. Sacrificing Din allows the Armorer to keep control over the Watch.
That also makes me wonder if she tasked him with returning Grogu to the Jedi because she perceived him to a threat to her power as well. A Mandalorian with a Jedi utterly loyal to him would be a powerful force if he chose to be.
The "why" behind the Armorer's decisions are a little more cloudy, but I do think there's something to the suddenly frequent references to Concordia, where the Watch was when Mandalore was razed by the Empire and where Din was raised. The proximity of the moon to the planet makes me question why the Empire wouldn't just go bomb the **** out of the moon after they destroyed Mandalore. It's right there and if Moff Gideon was in charge, which I assume is likely since he wound up with the Darksaber, given his massive propensity for information, it seems he would have been well aware there was a faction of hardcore warriors right around the corner that could be wiped out as well.
But they didn't. And that leads me to quadruple down on the Armorer as the antagonist of the season. Maybe the Empire didn't destroy Concordia because they made a deal with the Watch - stay underground, don't warn the government on Mandalore, don't help them, and we won't kill you too. Maybe the Armorer even went so far as to break down the story of the Darksaber to the Empire and help them know where to find it so they could remove that piece from the board and take away basically any chance of Mandalore ever uniting again.
Crazy? Probably. But then consider what happened in the "Return of the Mandalorian" episode of BOBF. Hal an hour after Mando shows back up at the new conclave with the Darksaber and a fresh wound on his leg, big boy Vizla challenges him for ownership of it. Din wins the fight, but 30 seconds later the Armorer asks the question about the helmet, and then outllaws him from their order. She couldn't get the saber away from him, so she finds another way to get him out of the way.
The season previews show DIn appearing to lead several mandos in a cave/desert scenario that looks similar to the same planet that we see at the opening of Season 1. We've also seen both big boy Vizla firing his gun on what looks to be Nevarro and Bo Katan and the Night Owls jumping out of a ship over what also looks to be NEvarro.
Both of these shots could be the Mandalorians teaming up to save Nevarro from an attack by the Dread Pirate HR Puffenstuff from the first episode, but what if it's more a Mando v Mando battle when Bo/Din expose the Armorer's lies and lines get drawn in the sand?
If Bo and Din show up to confront the Armorer, I could totally see Episode 3 being called "The Heretic"
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