You're not a contestant on survivor who has spent 6 weeks with the guy.

So? I wouldn't vote for my best friend to win something just because she's pregnant. What's the point of even playing a game then?

I think if Jeremy makes it - he wins against any of them for his game play - not just because Val is pregnant. He hasn't gotten a single vote the whole game, I think he's the only one left who hasn't. That says something right there.

While I like Kelley - her game play is so under the radar she'd have to deliver an amazing speech at the final tribal. That - or these last few game moves before the final would have to all go her way. She and Jeremy only have 2 more tribals left to play their idols. I'd love to see them both play them at the Final 5 - get rid of Keith or Kimmi at 6.

Kimmi has no shot. Tasha seems to have rubbed a lot of people the wrong way - so I'd be surprised to see her win.

Out of who's left, I'd say those with the best chances are Jeremy, Spencer and Kelley. Love Keith - but that jury isn't going to give it to him.

Kelley may not have the best game play but she is responsible for a few people getting voted out. Not to mention she has found 2 idols and won II. I think Jeremy is a threat because of his story and the others need to realize that.

I don't think Jeremy will win. Besides findings 2 idols and using one to save an Stephen he had been a non factor in the show. He hasn't won any contest yet and hasn't made any moves to vote people out.

When he is at tribal he hardly contributes to the conversation. I get that he is doing that so that he doesn't put his foot in his mouth, but I'm afraid the jury won't see that as good game play.

I'd put my money on either Kelley or Spencer.


How awesome of a final vote would it be if the final 3 were Spencer, Kelley, & Jeremy though!

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I'd put my money on either Kelley or Spencer.

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How much, exactly?

Jeremy made some moves. In particular, he played an HII to save Stephen. It was a waste, but a move that affected the game.

I think that Spencer, Kelley, and Jeremy all have a decent shot of winning if they are in the final three. Keith, Kimmi and Tasha don't have a chance against any of the other three (maybe Tasha if she's with Kelley and Kimmi/Keith). Those three would have to band together to have a chance at winning.

I think Spencer has played the best game by far to this point, but I don't think his social game is as good as the others so that could hurt him some. Kelley has a decent shot because of who she has from her group on the Jury, but it will depend on who she is there with. Jeremy has played the best social game of Kelley, Spencer, and himself.

Will be an excellent finale with this current group remaining.

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Jeremy made some moves. In particular, he played an HII to save Stephen. It was a waste, but a move that affected the game.

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It saved Stephen and got out Sierra, which effectively broke up the Sierra-Kelley-Abi voting block.

Saving an ally to knock out an opposing power player is never a waste, even if your ally is eliminated shortly thereafter.

yeah, that move was anything BUT a waste

if kelley is in the finale, she'll win.

tasha and kimmi will not win

keith will win only if he's in the finale with tasha and kimmi

jeremy and spencer have the best chance as long as they are not in there with kelley

I know they won't respect Keith's "go with the flow game", but I'm still pretty impressed he has navigated to this point and he is more of a challenge threat than Jeremy ever has been. Only Spencer can beat him unless they have one more of those 500 yard swim/run challenges that tax his age.

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I know they won't respect Keith's "go with the flow game", but I'm still pretty impressed he has navigated to this point and he is more of a challenge threat than Jeremy ever has been. Only Spencer can beat him unless they have one more of those 500 yard swim/run challenges that tax his age.

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Keith has been very impressive in challenges. If he had Job's young age, he might have even beaten Joe in most of them. He has always been in the running to win any given challenge.

Jeremy, not so much.

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Love Keith - but that jury isn't going to give it to him

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Keith may not play the game with a common strategy well, but he is one of the most likable guys I've ever seen on the show. I could see jury votes going his way because people just like him so much. I've said it before, but just being likable is a pretty good strategy.

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I don't think Jeremy will win...........He hasn't won any contest yet........

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For being as ripped as Jeremy is, he is extremely un-athletic. A step above Fishbach

Anyone notice that the first challenge without Joe was the first that want balance/endurance?

Guys, a couple of corrections to the standings, both point increases, one for Longhorn Nation and one for tx1c.

) LHIOB 70

2) gravy97 68


3) CheeseSndwch 67
double aught 67
Quinn 67
Ronnie 67

8) TheSheik 65.5

9) AcctAg11 63
MooreTrucker 63
Bobcat06 63

12) zap 61.5

13) kpaggie05 61

14) Longhorn Nation 60.5

15) MuckRaker96 60



16) tallgrant 57

17) jdgilberg 56
Moxie 56
Pro Ag 56

20) txaggiefarmer05 54

21) hurleyag 51.5

22) BlackLab 48

23) Unthought Known 47

24) salvatore_ditmars 45

25) tx1c 41

26) ChipFTAC01 35

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Anyone notice that the first challenge without Joe was the first that want balance/endurance?

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Yeah, there was no question Joe wins that going away. Tasha probably swallows half the seawater she did if Joe is there to put everyone out of their misery

Also you have 4 people tied for 3rd (I am one of them). I assume we all have the same people picked or something for us to keep getting the same points.

Question: is there something else we can pick to decide a tiebreaker?

Next episode is the finale, so now would be the time to put a tiebreaker together like "What do you predict the vote for final tribal to breakdown among the finalists?" or "who do you predict wins the final immunity challenge?" or something like that?

Also, is it even possible for us to catch LHIOB or gravy97? If you are sitting at 67 and they have the same people picked but have been getting a 0.5 pt bonus because they never changed their pick from the get-go, the 3rd placers probably have no chance. It would be interesting to know the scenarios and how that would affect the outcome. I'm not volunteering to figure this out but if someone has been double checking the scoring then maybe they could do this too?

I'm in 3rd with bonus points Wentworth left. There is a link to a google doc that shows everyone's picks a few pages back if ya want to check.

Tasha really should have blindsided either Jeremy or Spencer last time. By breaking up the girls' alliance, she can't win if either Spencer or Jeremy makes the final 3 with her. She effectively lost the votes of Abi, Kimmi, and Kelley by doing so.

Jeremy hasn't won any challenges but he has used an immunity idol to save an ally and bounce out someone who was trouble, and will probably use a second idol to save himself, and the funny thing is, after used the first idol, no one said, "Dang, Jeremy kept an HII from him, that's get him out while we can!"

I think if he gets to the final 3 he will craft the best argument, on how he used his second chance to evolve his game where he was never the target, but at the heart of subtly guiding the game's flow from start to finish.

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Also you have 4 people tied for 3rd (I am one of them). I assume we all have the same people picked or something for us to keep getting the same points.

Question: is there something else we can pick to decide a tiebreaker?

Next episode is the finale, so now would be the time to put a tiebreaker together like "What do you predict the vote for final tribal to breakdown among the finalists?" or "who do you predict wins the final immunity challenge?" or something like that?

Also, is it even possible for us to catch LHIOB or gravy97? If you are sitting at 67 and they have the same people picked but have been getting a 0.5 pt bonus because they never changed their pick from the get-go, the 3rd placers probably have no chance. It would be interesting to know the scenarios and how that would affect the outcome. I'm not volunteering to figure this out but if someone has been double checking the scoring then maybe they could do this too?

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Break down of the top contenders:

LHIOB - 70 pts
Spencer & Wentsworth

gravy97 - 68 pts
Spencer & Joe

Quinn - 67pts
Wenstworth & Joe

doubleaught - 67 pts
Spencer & Wentsworth

Cheese Sandwch - 67 pts
Wentsworth & Joe

The Shiek - 65.5 pts
Wentsworth & Keith


Can't win:
gravy97
Quinn
doubleaught
Cheese Sandwch

I think The Shiek can catch him if Keith wins and probably some other things happen to Spencer and Wentsworth.

So close.....

It really depends on where your people place. I was in 12th place last year going into the final and won.

I agree that Tasha should have gone with an all girls alliance to the end. Whichever poster said that those all girl alliances never last is right - that one only lasted one day!

I didnt want to bring up being dormie because that never goes well

How disappointing. I have my Final 4 in-tact and my "double down 2" intact and not only can't I win . . . I don't even get mentioned amongst the "can't win"s. How about "others receiving votes"??

If Kelly gets voted off at the next tribal, this game is wide open. Most of the people at the top had either Joe or Kelley. Joe won't be getting anyone any more points. If Kelly gets blindsided, the standings change dramtically.

So will Thursday be three tribal councils, or two and a final four?

Wednesday actually, but the TV listing says a final three. So I bet they'll just speed it up with back-to-back immunity challenges in the first hour or so, no reward challenge, and be down to the final 4 by the hour mark.

Then have the big sprawling "Kimmi you might as well sit your fat ass down" obstacle course with climbing and ropes and slides final immunity challenge to determine the final 3, and my money says if Jeremy is still alive, that's where he puts in the total effort so lacking the whole season and wins the immunity to get into the final 3.

Just a friendly bump that tomorrow night is the big finale. I checked out last year's thread the other day - I won the overall title by 0.5 points, but I was in 6th place and 8 points down entering the final episode, and there were a lot fewer people playing, and a lot greater disparity among the points back then. Keep hope alive!

So you're saying I have a chance?

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Just a friendly bump that tomorrow night is the big finale. I checked out last year's thread the other day - I won the overall title by 0.5 points, but I was in 6th place and 8 points down entering the final episode, and there were a lot fewer people playing, and a lot greater disparity among the points back then. Keep hope alive!

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So you're saying that I'm 7 points out and still have Jeremy and Kelley, so I still have a chance?

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quote:

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Just a friendly bump that tomorrow night is the big finale. I checked out last year's thread the other day - I won the overall title by 0.5 points, but I was in 6th place and 8 points down entering the final episode, and there were a lot fewer people playing, and a lot greater disparity among the points back then. Keep hope alive!

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So you're saying that I'm 7 points out and still have Jeremy and Kelley, so I still have a chance?

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Since Jeremy is going to win, you definitely have a chance, just like I do!

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quote:

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quote:

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Just a friendly bump that tomorrow night is the big finale. I checked out last year's thread the other day - I won the overall title by 0.5 points, but I was in 6th place and 8 points down entering the final episode, and there were a lot fewer people playing, and a lot greater disparity among the points back then. Keep hope alive!

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So you're saying that I'm 7 points out and still have Jeremy and Kelley, so I still have a chance?

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Since Jeremy is going to win, you definitely have a chance, just like I do!

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I'm actually hoping that Kelley wins, for whatever that's worth to my chances.

Anyone want to predict the order of finish tonight? Here is my sure to be wrong guess, though I feel pretty good about Kimmi finishing 3rd.

1. Wentworth
2. Jeremy
3. Kimmi
4. Tasha
5. Keith
6. Spencer

1. Jeremy
2.Spencer
3. Tasha
4. Kelley
5. Kimmi
6. Keith

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1. Jeremy
2.Spencer
3. Tasha
4. Kelley
5. Kimmi
6. Keith

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So you're banking on the JST alliance sticking together? I guess I could see that.