I've seen it. No doubt it's related too.

But not sure they expected to sell much Han Solo story stuff.

True. But I think Rogue One merch bombed too.

Dekker_Lentz said:

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True. But I think Rogue One merch bombed too.

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Per Wikipedia, gross budget was ~$250 million and box office was ~$1.05 billion. I don't know if I'd consider that a bomb, even with merchandizing.

Objectively, Rogue One has made more money on box office totals alone than Solo has. And Solo had a higher budget.

Belton Ag said:

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CJS4715 said:

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I am going to keep this short, but I'm just debating the point that the force talk scenes did nothing for Rey's character. Defending TLJ as a whole is difficult, but I did enjoy the Rey / Kylo sequences. The challenge is that these two characters needed to develop a relationship (not romantic) somehow without trying to kill each other. While backstory on Rey would be interesting, I liked the decision to focus on her emotions and motives.

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But her main motive the whole time leading up to this was trying to find out who she was and what her lineage was. These scenes are fine on their own but Johnson used them to switch gears on us and ignore the mystery about Rey set up in TFA. It became all about her coming from "nothing", which fit in line with Johnson's theme of "you can be a nobody and still be special" which was hammered home at the end with the stable boy using the force to pick up the broom and then stare at the stars.

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It may be petty, but that scene is god awful

PatAg said:

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Belton Ag said:

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CJS4715 said:

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I am going to keep this short, but I'm just debating the point that the force talk scenes did nothing for Rey's character. Defending TLJ as a whole is difficult, but I did enjoy the Rey / Kylo sequences. The challenge is that these two characters needed to develop a relationship (not romantic) somehow without trying to kill each other. While backstory on Rey would be interesting, I liked the decision to focus on her emotions and motives.

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But her main motive the whole time leading up to this was trying to find out who she was and what her lineage was. These scenes are fine on their own but Johnson used them to switch gears on us and ignore the mystery about Rey set up in TFA. It became all about her coming from "nothing", which fit in line with Johnson's theme of "you can be a nobody and still be special" which was hammered home at the end with the stable boy using the force to pick up the broom and then stare at the stars.

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It may be petty, but that scene is god awful

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I felt like I was watching a Star Wars version of Cinderella. *********it Disney, stay in your lanes.

so let us play "what if".

JJ is back, and likely has carte blanche to do whatever he wants to "fix" thing
The "A Star Wars Story" series is on hold, likely terminated
There is a percentage of the fan base that is still angry and no longer interested in Episode IX

What amount of $ for Ep IX would be considered "bad"?
TLJ crapped out at 1.3B.
Is 1.3B for Ep IX enough to stay the course or does it have to make more.

AND

if Ep IX stays disappoints or stays status quo, what do you think will happen to the other 3 trilogies in development?
Which series (or both) would be put on hold, or do you think neither, since Disney wills till want to be churning out "Star Wars".

jabberwalkie09 said:

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Dekker_Lentz said:

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True. But I think Rogue One merch bombed too.

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Per Wikipedia, gross budget was ~$250 million and box office was ~$1.05 billion. I don't know if I'd consider that a bomb, even with merchandizing.

Objectively, Rogue One has made more money on box office totals alone than Solo has. And Solo had a higher budget.

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Once all costs are taken into consideration Deadline has the profits estimate at $319MM.

I do not consider > 1B revenues, and $319MM profit a "bomb".

But you aren't Disney who seems to get greedier by the day.

Quote:

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I think any sort of drop off in revenue from TLJ gets Kennedy fired. I think one big change you will see regardless is Disney will require a director/ producer to sign on for the entire trilogy. I think allowing Johnson to come in and change everything for one movie really screwed the trilogy. I'd be surprised if at the end of everything it all has a cohesive feel. I think it will likely just feel like three movies rather than a trilogy. They need to have someone who can oversee the entire story arc.

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Yeah, I agree that if there's a relatively significant drop off with IX, that's when Kennedy is canned. No way it's before.

And I'm not defending Johnson at all - you're right that his ignoring/changing so much was a big issue - but I'd argue that Abrams didn't tee everything up nearly as well as he could have. I like Finn and I like his character in TFA, but he kind of had no where to go at the end of that movie. There was really nothing at all compelling for him left dangling in any way. IMO, he and Poe should have been the same character - a character that starts out as a pilot for The First Order but ultimately pilots for the Resistance by the climax. That, and The First Order should have "won" at the end of TFA. Or, rather, the Resistance should have at least been forced to retreat, not only leaving "Pinn" (Poe/Finn) with unfinished business, but a more dire situation for the Resistance in general where it makes more sense to seek out Luke for help. As is, with Starkiller base destroyed, and a seemingly tiny contingent of The First Order left and on the run, that whole beat feels off with Rey/The Resistance in desperate need of Luke at the very end. Besides, TLJ opens with that basic angle anyway - The First Order attacking a retreating Resistance - rendering the end of TFA completely moot. But in that case, I think Johnson was simply and quickly taking it to a place where the story should have already been. And with Finn, yes, the whole team up with Rose was terrible, but I honestly don't know what else Johnson could have done. Any story he gave Finn would have felt tacked on, because Finn's arc was basically already complete a third of the way into TFA. Which goes back to my point of Finn and Poe needing to be the same character, and then giving "Pinn" something else entirely to do in TLJ outside of that whole Holdo fiasco, which should have been handled differently as well. Anyway, enough fanfic, but my point is, Abrams kind of left Johnson in a sh*tty position to being with. Johnson definitely shouldn't have taken it where he did, but I also can't blame him fully.

All that said, you realize that Johnson is the person overseeing the next trilogy, right? They're doing what you're rightly suggesting, it's just with the guy who certain fans aren't happy with. I'm not super pumped on him shepherding the next trilogy either, but at the same time, I'm willing give to give him another chance with a completely blank slate. Not having to adhere/ignore already-established plot lines could definitely free up Johnson to deliver the greatness I know he's capable of.

SeattleAgJr said:

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if Ep IX stays disappoints or stays status quo, what do you think will happen to the other 3 trilogies in development?
Which series (or both) would be put on hold, or do you think neither, since Disney wills till want to be churning out "Star Wars".

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Just FYI, there are only two other "trilogies" in development, not three. And while Johnson's has officially been referred to as a trilogy, the Beneiff & Weiss series has only been referring to as just that - a series, not a trilogy. So two other "stories" might be the best way to put it.

But to answer your question specifically, if IX somehow truly bombs, I still don't know that that changes anything, save for Kennedy's job. She'll be gone for sure, but by the time IX hits theaters, the first installment in Johnson's trilogy will likely be in full-on preproduction, and six or so months away from filming, if that. It sounds like all hands are already on deck to ensure that that trilogy is not only as good as it possibly can be, but that the stories for all three movies are planned far in advance as well. In other words, Disney is having to bet heavily on it, and there's almost no way the plug gets pulled at this point.

As for the Benioff & Weiss series of movies, I think their pedigree is so high that that series moves forward no matter what as well. That, and Disney has already made too many promises to both fans and shareholders that it's Star Wars every year from here on out, so I don't think they'll have any choice but to alternate whatever this series is every other year with Johnson's trilogy.

Still, I just don't see Episode IX failing. I know right now everyone's sour on TLJ, and things look bleak, but 18 months from now - with a massive break - people are going to be craving another Star Wars movie, especially one that will be billed as finally wrapping up Rey and Kylo's storylines. Remember, Abrams' trailers - for nearly all of his movies - are almost always phenomenal, and I'm sure it'll be no different for IX. 10 months from now, when that first trailer drops, all previous franchise sins will be wiped away, I guarantee you that. Whether the movie itself is actually good and has legs is another issue altogether of course, but something about this feels like they're finally going to get it right. Abrams has hopefully learned from his mistakes the last go around, and for the first time in years, he actually had a completed, signed-off script months before shooting. I could be way off, but as I said a few days ago, I think TLJ's wrapping up of nearly every storyline (Luke dying, no more Snoke, no Leia, etc) will be a blessing in disguise, allowing IX to really stand on its own and shine as the finale of the Skywalker saga.

You say that everyone will be drawn to the next installment because it'll be the finale of the Rey/Kylo storyline, but here's the issue with that....I honestly don't care that much about them anymore. After TLJ my interest in either one of them (or Poe or Finn for that matter) is really nonexistent.

After Empire I really HAD to know what happened (were they going to save Han?! And what about Vader being Luke's father?!). But after TLJ? Meh. Honestly if I see it in theaters it'll only be because my young son wants to, and even he is kind of soured on TLJ.

SeattleAgJr said:

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jabberwalkie09 said:

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Dekker_Lentz said:

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True. But I think Rogue One merch bombed too.

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Per Wikipedia, gross budget was ~$250 million and box office was ~$1.05 billion. I don't know if I'd consider that a bomb, even with merchandizing.

Objectively, Rogue One has made more money on box office totals alone than Solo has. And Solo had a higher budget.

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Once all costs are taken into consideration Deadline has the profits estimate at $319MM.

I do not consider > 1B revenues, and $319MM profit a "bomb".

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No doubt the movie was profitable. As noted above, I was not questioning that. But I doubt Disney cut a check to its merchandising partners from the movie's profits.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-18/-star-wars-toy-sales-fall-in-2017-as-movie-tie-fatigue-sets-in

What I am more referring too, is since TFA Star Wars merchandise sells have dropped.

Disney did not buy Star Wars to just make money on the Box Office. They bought to make money on retail, the parks, their streaming services, kids cartoons, and so on.

I think one of the understated aspects of Star Wars is the bond between merchandising and the content of the films.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/lukethompson/2017/12/21/why-arent-star-wars-toys-selling-as-well-this-year/

As this article discusses, Star Wars went from the number 1 brand to behind Pokmon and Nerf. This matters.

Serious question from a guy whose kid is only 9 months old. Do kids play with action figures?

CJS4715 said:

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AliasMan02 said:

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Serious question from a guy whose kid is only 9 months old. Do kids play with action figures?

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Nope.

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I'll disagree... to some extent.

My son still buys and builds tons of Lego SW and Marvel figures and sets - he's 23. I think Lego is still big. Look in any Lego store it will be packed with kids usually and at Christmas the Lego aisles are heavily picked thru..

I don't recall kids playing with traditional action figures much though. I recall them wanting light sabers and some helmets and costumes, and themed board games, and of course video games.

I edited. The lego stuff is huge in my house, and it cost a ton of $. I bought my kid some Rebels action figures and a ship, and it entertained him for a few days.

TCTTS said:

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I agree with you 100%. Exactly where I am as well. But that's right now. My point is, 10 months from now, when that first Abrams trailer hits, if I were a betting man... you, me, and everyone else is going to get sucked right back in. There'll be some bad ass shot of the Knights of Ren, some cool story angle hinted at that none of us thought of, or a bit of audio that reddit swears is Qui-Gon Jinn, and because of all that, combined with that signature Abrams energy, each and every one of us is more than likely going to be saying things like, "I wasn't going to see this opening weekend, but now I'm ALL IN."

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Agree with every word of this.

Quote:

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What amount of $ for Ep IX would be considered "bad"?

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All IMO.

< $1.0 B would be disastrous. The saga finale being below Rogue One is a very bad sign.

$1.0 - 1.3 B would be "bad". This would indicate a consistent negative trend in the main saga films.

$1.4 - 1.5 B would be considered "decent" money. It did what it's supposed to do, but didn't blow away anyone's expectations. It's still HUGE blockbuster money obviously, just not Star Wars saga finale money.

$1.6 - 2.0 B would be great for just about everyone. Doesn't break TFA's record but is still a massively successful, "Star Wars"- like success. Clear-cut sign to Disney / Lucasfilm that the franchise is back on track.

$2.0+ B (Unlikely) - All of the above, plus would likely greenlight all halted productions, including Obi-Wan. This is TFA / Avatar / Infinity War territory.

I guess you're talking Worldwide BO.....

I tend to focus on domestic.

The third film tends to do better than the second but not as good as the first.

Somewhere between 620-936M then is expected. Id' say

<500 is a disaster
510 - <620 is bad
620 - <700 is barely acceptable
700 - <780 is good
780 - <860 is great
860 - <930 is awesome
930+ is incredible

I expect about $750M

I adjusted slightly as my 10M blocks were leaving out some numbers.

yeah 700 is the bar really.
I put 620 not 600 acceptable based on TLJ doing $620M

I think that without Luke, Han, Leia or Snoke there to draw people back, and with how TLJ did little to develop Finn and Poe, it's going to the appeal of Rey and Kylo that draws in viewers.

As much as I really like Rey, I just don't see her being that kind of popular.

Belton Ag said:

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I think that without Luke, Han, Leia or Snoke there to draw people back, and with how TLJ did little to develop Finn and Poe, it's going to the appeal of Rey and Kylo that draws in viewers.

As much as I really like Rey, I just don't see her being that kind of popular.

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as TCTCSTSTS stated above, they're going to need a killer trailer... something that will make the fans geek out.

Maybe Kylo should go full psycho and put on the Vader outfit and melted mask and go kill some gungans.

TCTTS said:

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SeattleAgJr said:

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if Ep IX stays disappoints or stays status quo, what do you think will happen to the other 3 trilogies in development?
Which series (or both) would be put on hold, or do you think neither, since Disney wills till want to be churning out "Star Wars".

---

Just FYI, there are only two other "trilogies" in development, not three. And while Johnson's has officially been referred to as a trilogy, the Beneiff & Weiss series has only been referring to as just that - a series, not a trilogy. So two other "stories" might be the best way to put it.

But to answer your question specifically, if IX somehow truly bombs, I still don't know that that changes anything, save for Kennedy's job. She'll be gone for sure, but by the time IX hits theaters, the first installment in Johnson's trilogy will likely be in full-on preproduction, and six or so months away from filming, if that. It sounds like all hands are already on deck to ensure that that trilogy is not only as good as it possibly can be, but that the stories for all three movies are planned far in advance as well. In other words, Disney is having to bet heavily on it, and there's almost no way the plug gets pulled at this point.

As for the Benioff & Weiss series of movies, I think their pedigree is so high that that series moves forward no matter what as well. That, and Disney has already made too many promises to both fans and shareholders that it's Star Wars every year from here on out, so I don't think they'll have any choice but to alternate whatever this series is every other year with Johnson's trilogy.

Still, I just don't see Episode IX failing. I know right now everyone's sour on TLJ, and things look bleak, but 18 months from now - with a massive break - people are going to be craving another Star Wars movie, especially one that will be billed as finally wrapping up Rey and Kylo's storylines. Remember, Abrams' trailers - for nearly all of his movies - are almost always phenomenal, and I'm sure it'll be no different for IX. 10 months from now, when that first trailer drops, all previous franchise sins will be wiped away, I guarantee you that. Whether the movie itself is actually good and has legs is another issue altogether of course, but something about this feels like they're finally going to get it right. Abrams has hopefully learned from his mistakes the last go around, and for the first time in years, he actually had a completed, signed-off script months before shooting. I could be way off, but as I said a few days ago, I think TLJ's wrapping up of nearly every storyline (Luke dying, no more Snoke, no Leia, etc) will be a blessing in disguise, allowing IX to really stand on its own and shine as the finale of the Skywalker saga.

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I'm trying hard not to think about how drastically different these discussions would be... how much more optimistic I would be about IX had Carrie Fisher not drugged herself to death, God rest her soul.