Good news about Omicron

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StandUpforAmerica
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10:41a, 12/17/21
I'm not sure that tracking cases anymore is the most helpful if this strain becomes dominant.

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AggieAuditor
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11:01a, 12/17/21
AG
Man I hope this holds up. Millions of folks with a quick cold and a crap load of antibodies.
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YouBet
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11:04a, 12/17/21
AG
Hopefully, we can retire that now.

The EU CDC has reported no deaths from it yet.

This development is great news.
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ramblin_ag02
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11:04a, 12/17/21
AG
Hopefully that holds up. It's been really frustating to read about the high case numbers in places like England with no mention of the hospitalization rates.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
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Another Doug
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11:18a, 12/17/21
AG
Good thing about South Africa they have plenty of data and discussion. I hate getting facts from tweets, so I like to look for the actual data that back them up.

https://www.facebook.com/HealthZA/videos/904765956837972/

This point is discussed at around 36:53

Probably need to pick and choose data to get to the 1.7% and 19% numbers. Just eyeballing and some quick math it looks more like 5% and 11%

That being said, this is also the situation in terms of admissions.

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aspaggies
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12:22p, 12/17/21
S
Thanks
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Proposition Joe
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1:22p, 12/17/21
Old Buffalo
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In reply to Another Doug • 1:50p, 12/17/21
AG
Quote:
The number of Covid-19 hospitalizations in this wave is also being inflated by the fact that milder patients are being admitted because there is room to accommodate them. Many are there for other complaints but are routinely tested, according to health officials.

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Aggie95
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2:08p, 12/17/21
AG
Yet, companies, cities, states, and media are im FULL panic mode
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St Hedwig Aggie
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2:17p, 12/17/21
AG
No worries…pi is next…I'm sure someone is furiously looking for it and articles pre written.
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Gordo14
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In reply to Old Buffalo • 2:30p, 12/17/21
Old Buffalo said:
Quote:
The number of Covid-19 hospitalizations in this wave is also being inflated by the fact that milder patients are being admitted because there is room to accommodate them. Many are there for other complaints but are routinely tested, according to health officials.



I'm optimistic about Omicron being better, but given there is a multiweek lag between deaths and cases and cases have spiked to recors highs basically in 2 weeks, I'm not sure that graph is particularly valuable. It's the same **** as July 2020 when people were pretending that the CFR was actually 0 now because cases were going up but deaths hadn't yet. CFR dtops at the start of every infection wave.

My biggest concern is that South Africa's population is not a great representation of western populations. It skews both younger and less overweight than western populations.

I think CFR will be lower for Omicron when the dust settles. However, the risk to western societies is everybody will catch this variant in the span of 7 weeks. Even if CFR is much lower that can cause immense strain on resources.
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Another Doug
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In reply to Gordo14 • 2:41p, 12/17/21
AG
Gordo14 said:
Old Buffalo said:
Quote:
The number of Covid-19 hospitalizations in this wave is also being inflated by the fact that milder patients are being admitted because there is room to accommodate them. Many are there for other complaints but are routinely tested, according to health officials.



I'm optimistic about Omicron being better, but given there is a multiweek lag between deaths and cases and cases have spiked to recors highs basically in 2 weeks, I'm not sure that graph is particularly valuable. It's the same **** as July 2020 when people were pretending that the CFR was actually 0 now because cases were going up but deaths hadn't yet. CFR dtops at the start of every infection wave.

My biggest concern is that South Africa's population is not a great representation of western populations. It skews both younger and less overweight than western populations.

I think CFR will be lower for Omicron when the dust settles. However, the risk to western societies is everybody will catch this variant in the span of 7 weeks. Even if CFR is much lower that can cause immense strain on resources.
That data is legit from what I can tell. The chart has a 10 day lag built into it. I think the sheer number of positive tests is crazy so. I wouldn't have thought that 4 waves in you would be able to see such a high number. The hopeful thing is that omicron is just that weak, the worrisome thing is like you said what factor does the younger, healthier population play with this death rate so far.
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amercer
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In reply to Gordo14 • 2:42p, 12/17/21
AG
Shhhhh, no one likes math.

Good news is no matter if it's less severe than previous variants, if you are vaccinated (and under 75) it probably no big deal. Plus the spike will be fast. So if you turn off the news for the next couple weeks you can let the super maskers and anti vaxxers beat each other's brains out and miss the whole thing.
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Old Buffalo
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2:44p, 12/17/21
AG
Good thing TexAgs has an ignore feature so I don't have to read stupid replies
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End Of Message
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In reply to amercer • 2:47p, 12/17/21
AG
amercer said:
Shhhhh, no one likes math.

Good news is no matter if it's less severe than previous variants, if you are vaccinated (and under 75) it probably no big deal. Plus the spike will be fast. So if you turn off the news for the next couple weeks you can let the super maskers and anti vaxxers beat each other's brains out and miss the whole thing.
yet, here you are
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amercer
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In reply to End Of Message • 2:52p, 12/17/21
AG
End Of Message said:
amercer said:
Shhhhh, no one likes math.

Good news is no matter if it's less severe than previous variants, if you are vaccinated (and under 75) it probably no big deal. Plus the spike will be fast. So if you turn off the news for the next couple weeks you can let the super maskers and anti vaxxers beat each other's brains out and miss the whole thing.
yet, here you are


And here I will remain
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94chem
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In reply to ramblin_ag02 • 11:45p, 12/17/21
ramblin_ag02 said:
Hopefully that holds up. It's been really frustating to read about the high case numbers in places like England with no mention of the hospitalization rates.


It's the same thing in every article I see. Skyrocketing positivity rates, and buried deep in the story are the low hospitalization rates, even moreso among the vaccinated. Delta was well on its way to infecting everybody. Omicron looks like Delta x 10 or more. The story which should be the lead, and not buried, is that the vaccines work. Maybe they won't cook breakfast for you or get you a date with a model, but they still work. And yet, we still have everybody obsessing over testing. I do hope that once the pill is approved, rapid testing will be available so it won't be useless like Tamiflu.
94chem,
That, sir, was the greatest post in the history of TexAgs. I salute you. -- Dough
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AG @ HEART
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In reply to YouBet • 5:41a, 12/18/21
YouBet said:
Hopefully, we can retire that now.

The EU CDC has reported no deaths from it yet.

This development is great news.


But yet they still want to foment panic.
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coolerguy12
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In reply to ramblin_ag02 • 6:37a, 12/18/21
AG
ramblin_ag02 said:
Hopefully that holds up. It's been really frustating to read about the high case numbers in places like England with no mention of the hospitalization rates.


It's very easy to infer data by what is left out of an article. Covid is all about fear so they aren't going to print something that reduces fear.

HTH.
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ttu_85
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In reply to ramblin_ag02 • 9:01a, 12/18/21
ramblin_ag02 said:
Hopefully that holds up. It's been really frustating to read about the high case numbers in places like England with no mention of the hospitalization rates.
Interesting. To make the doom and gloom forecast claims the UK gov is making you'd think that data would be front and center.
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scd88
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9:38a, 12/18/21
AG
And yet our government is plowing forward with threats of limiting human contact as if this is like the other variants. They are the ones that clap about "follow the science;" but they aren't walking that walk.

If this symptomatically mild, then let the numbers spike. Who cares about new cases? It's a tired statistic.
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94chem
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In reply to coolerguy12 • 10:00a, 12/18/21
coolerguy12 said:
ramblin_ag02 said:
Hopefully that holds up. It's been really frustating to read about the high case numbers in places like England with no mention of the hospitalization rates.


It's very easy to infer data by what is left out of an article. Covid is all about fear so they aren't going to print something that reduces fear.

HTH.


You made a couple of good points in the middle of all of that hyperbole.
94chem,
That, sir, was the greatest post in the history of TexAgs. I salute you. -- Dough
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KidDoc
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11:28a, 12/18/21
AG
I'm actually very optimistic that this is going to really smash the whole pandemic. A super contagious very mild variant that should give comprehensive protection that exceeds and supplements the vaccines. As long as the governments don't over-react this could be a real blessing.

My only concern is the at risk population that still refuses vaccine, they could be hit harder than delta but only time will tell.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
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94chem
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In reply to KidDoc • 11:31a, 12/18/21
KidDoc said:
I'm actually very optimistic that this is going to really smash the whole pandemic. A super contagious very mild variant that should give comprehensive protection that exceeds and supplements the vaccines. As long as the governments don't over-react this could be a real blessing.

My only concern is the at risk population that still refuses vaccine, they could be hit harder than delta but only time will tell.


Yep, the severity is the question, isn't it? This Omicron could be God's grace to everyone...or something really bad. Either way, taking a COVID test before entering Canada ain't gonna fix anything.
94chem,
That, sir, was the greatest post in the history of TexAgs. I salute you. -- Dough
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KidDoc
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In reply to 94chem • 11:43a, 12/18/21
AG
I think overtesting is going to cause major economic challenges that we are seeing this weekend starting with the NFL. I can easily see parents refusing testing for their kids with minor colds because if they flip positive, which I expect MOST children will over the next 2 months, that means the entire family is on 2 week lock down per current guidelines (that I think are dumb).
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
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wbt5845
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11:58a, 12/18/21
AG
Let it rip. Now that all the vulnerable who want the vaccine have gotten it, let er rip.
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94chem
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In reply to KidDoc • 1:03p, 12/18/21
KidDoc said:
I think overtesting is going to cause major economic challenges that we are seeing this weekend starting with the NFL. I can easily see parents refusing testing for their kids with minor colds because if they flip positive, which I expect MOST children will over the next 2 months, that means the entire family is on 2 week lock down per current guidelines (that I think are dumb).


As usual, our leaders will lag months behind as they lament the availability of testing. The reality is that testing now is pointless for asymptomatic people. I think testing will become more important once the pill is approved. It should be OTC with a positive test.
94chem,
That, sir, was the greatest post in the history of TexAgs. I salute you. -- Dough
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wessimo
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In reply to KidDoc • 2:19p, 12/18/21
AG
KidDoc said:
I'm actually very optimistic that this is going to really smash the whole pandemic. A super contagious very mild variant that should give comprehensive protection that exceeds and supplements the vaccines. As long as the governments don't over-react this could be a real blessing.

My only concern is the at risk population that still refuses vaccine, they could be hit harder than delta but only time will tell.


Dream scenario. Hope it comes true.
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aggieduke
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In reply to 94chem • 5:21p, 12/18/21
AG
94chem said:
KidDoc said:
I think overtesting is going to cause major economic challenges that we are seeing this weekend starting with the NFL. I can easily see parents refusing testing for their kids with minor colds because if they flip positive, which I expect MOST children will over the next 2 months, that means the entire family is on 2 week lock down per current guidelines (that I think are dumb).


As usual, our leaders will lag months behind as they lament the availability of testing. The reality is that testing now is pointless for asymptomatic people. I think testing will become more important once the pill is approved. It should be OTC with a positive test.


What pill?
TIA
Philippians 4:13
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KidDoc
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In reply to aggieduke • 5:27p, 12/18/21
AG
Pfizer says its COVID pill reduces risk of hospitalization or death by 89%. When will it be available? - CNET
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
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fightingfarmer09
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In reply to KidDoc • 6:14p, 12/18/21
KidDoc said:
I think overtesting is going to cause major economic challenges that we are seeing this weekend starting with the NFL. I can easily see parents refusing testing for their kids with minor colds because if they flip positive, which I expect MOST children will over the next 2 months, that means the entire family is on 2 week lock down per current guidelines (that I think are dumb).


This is already true. I have opted out of having my kids testing 3 total times. All three times the reason they were in was ear infections (which happen all the time). My wife is a teacher and a positive test instantly costs her 10 days vacation. If she doesn't have the days it's docked pay. So it will take something major to cause her to opt for a test.
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2wealfth Man
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In reply to KidDoc • 6:19p, 12/18/21
AG
KidDoc said:
Pfizer says its COVID pill reduces risk of hospitalization or death by 89%. When will it be available? - CNET
Quote:
Pfizer in November asked the FDA for emergency-use authorization for its antiviral drug and Bourla said he expected the FDA to make a decision by the end of 2021. If approved, Paxlovid is ready to go: "We have already shipped product into the US," Bourla said, "so product will be available this month if it's approved."
This should be a game changer
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AgsMyDude
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7:45a, 12/19/21
AG
I realize that hospitalizations and deaths lag a bit but looking at the last 2 spikes in South Africa, shouldn't they be rising already if it as deadly as the previous? Or maybe I'm too optimistic?

It's clearly WAY more infectious based on how quickly that rose up, impressive tbh.
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Jabin
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In reply to AgsMyDude • 8:26a, 12/19/21
The scientists I follow are cautiously optimistic about the SA data, but all agree that it's too limited a data set to extrapolate from it to the entire world.

For example, the growth rate of Omicron in SA is now plummeting. No one is sure why.

Also, could the low death and hospitalization rates in SA be due to factors other than the possible lower severity of Omicron? Such factors might include the age and health of people in SA, prior exposure, etc.

I've noticed that people love to get to the bottom line immediately, but in cases such as widespread disease we, unfortunately, seem to have to wait for the data to get in.
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AgsMyDude
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In reply to Jabin • 9:23a, 12/19/21
AG
Yeah same here as far as what scientists I follow seem to believe.

And you're absolutely right about waiting to make a sweeping generalizations like the initial reports out of Italy were 10% CFR.

However it does look promising.
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