Good news about Omicron

30,787 Views | 142 Replies | Last: 2 yr ago by 98Ag99Grad
Coates
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In reply to Jabin • 10:34a, 12/19/21
Jabin said:
The scientists I follow are cautiously optimistic about the SA data, but all agree that it's too limited a data set to extrapolate from it to the entire world.

For example, the growth rate of Omicron in SA is now plummeting. No one is sure why.

Also, could the low death and hospitalization rates in SA be due to factors other than the possible lower severity of Omicron? Such factors might include the age and health of people in SA, prior exposure, etc.

I've noticed that people love to get to the bottom line immediately, but in cases such as widespread disease we, unfortunately, seem to have to wait for the data to get in.


There are other countries with the same data, Denmark, France, the UK.

Maybe Omicron has been spreading much longer than people thought and those with no symptoms or very mild symptoms never got tested. Or maybe people now with mild symptoms aren't getting tested.
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Jabin
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In reply to Coates • 10:37a, 12/19/21
Quote:
Maybe Omicron has been spreading much longer than people thought and those with no symptoms or very mild symptoms never got tested. Or maybe people now with mild symptoms aren't getting tested.
Exactly - "maybe". We just don't know yet.
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WoMD
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In reply to Jabin • 11:06a, 12/19/21
Jabin said:
Quote:
Maybe Omicron has been spreading much longer than people thought and those with no symptoms or very mild symptoms never got tested. Or maybe people now with mild symptoms aren't getting tested.
Exactly - "maybe". We just don't know yet.

But we can hope it's worse than it looks now, right?
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Jabin
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In reply to WoMD • 11:23a, 12/19/21
Why, you got money on it being worse?
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Coates
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In reply to Jabin • 11:39a, 12/19/21
Jabin said:
Quote:
Maybe Omicron has been spreading much longer than people thought and those with no symptoms or very mild symptoms never got tested. Or maybe people now with mild symptoms aren't getting tested.
Exactly - "maybe". We just don't know yet.


There is data from multiple countries that hospitalizations and deaths are substantially lower.

My comment was directed to yours that it doesn't make sense that the cases are dropping so fast. Not sure why that even matters, counting cases hasn't been a good metric since the beginning.
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Jabin
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In reply to Coates • 11:47a, 12/19/21
Quote:
There is data from multiple countries that hospitalizations and deaths are substantially lower.
I was not aware of that, especially hospitalizations more than 10 days after the onset of the new surge, and deaths more than 21 or so days later. For example, the big surge in cases in the UK has only been underway for 2-4 days.

Do you have links to that data?
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Old Buffalo
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In reply to Jabin • 12:26p, 12/19/21
AG
It's literally on the first page of this thread....
“The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command.”
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Jabin
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In reply to Old Buffalo • 12:35p, 12/19/21
Old Buffalo said:
It's literally on the first page of this thread....
I literally don't see it, other than data for SA. Can you help an old guy out and point me to it?
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amercer
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12:35p, 12/19/21
AG
Some studies say it's milder, some say it's the same as delta. All of them are too early to tell. It does seem pretty clear that only the miRNA vaccines offer protection against infection.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-03794-8

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2021/12/19/health/omicron-vaccines-efficacy.amp.html


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RAB91
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In reply to amercer • 2:33p, 12/19/21
amercer said:
Some studies say it's milder, some say it's the same as delta. All of them are too early to tell. It does seem pretty clear that only the miRNA vaccines offer protection against infection.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-03794-8

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2021/12/19/health/omicron-vaccines-efficacy.amp.html



I think you meant to say 'vaccines or natural immunity'.
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amercer
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In reply to RAB91 • 3:00p, 12/19/21
AG
We will see if delta infection helps against omicron. Can't tell that from SA since they didn't have much delta. Infection with other earlier variants probably won't.

Again I'm just discussing infection, not severe disease.
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cavscout96
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In reply to KidDoc • 10:05a, 12/20/21
AG
KidDoc said:
I'm actually very optimistic that this is going to really smash the whole pandemic. A super contagious very mild variant that should give comprehensive protection that exceeds and supplements the vaccines. As long as the governments don't over-react this could be a real blessing.

My only concern is the at risk population that still refuses vaccine, they could be hit harder than delta but only time will tell.
KD

Have you changed your thoughts on kids/teens and Vax?

IIRC you were previously in the risks from vax to teens outweigh the rewards. Is there any new data out that changes your stance or that confirms it?

seems like the early data had a higher risk to boys than girls.. still valid?

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KidDoc
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In reply to cavscout96 • 10:10a, 12/20/21
AG
cavscout96 said:
KidDoc said:
I'm actually very optimistic that this is going to really smash the whole pandemic. A super contagious very mild variant that should give comprehensive protection that exceeds and supplements the vaccines. As long as the governments don't over-react this could be a real blessing.

My only concern is the at risk population that still refuses vaccine, they could be hit harder than delta but only time will tell.
KD

Have you changed your thoughts on kids/teens and Vax?

IIRC you were previously in the risks from vax to teens outweigh the rewards. Is there any new data out that changes your stance or that confirms it?

seems like the early data had a higher risk to boys than girls.. still valid?

Yes boys are much higher risk of complications from vaccine, 90% of the myocarditis cases are boys/men.

They are still looking at possible lower dosing in that population.

If your kid has risk factors, including BMI > 85% for age, it is well worth the tiny risk of myocarditis. If your kid has no risk factors it likely isn't worth the risk. If you want your teen to get the vaccine to prevent them from getting Omicron it likely isn't worth doing as it probably won't really do much vs that variant in a patient who already has well under 1% chance of a hospitalization.

Dr Saphire and I really agree on this and she is more articulate than I am (and easier on the eyes). Dr. Nicole Saphier: Let's pause COVID vaccination for our kids -- here's my take as a physician and mother | Fox News
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
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ramblin_ag02
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4:03p, 12/20/21
AG
Well, we'll know by Christmas just how bad Omicron really is. UK registering 500,000 new cases, mostly omicron, in the last week. So far only 900 admissions per day and 100 deaths per day. With alpha and delta days 8-14 were where the bad cases got bad. So we'll be smack in that range by this time next week for Britain.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
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Demo_Slug
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4:06p, 12/20/21
AG
The explanation I got was that omicron breeds on the surfaces higher in the lungs. So you get bronchitis. And because it's in your bronchia it's easier to cough up and spread. It also makes it less serious because it's not deep in the lungs.

Fwiw I'm an idiot, so treat anything I say as wild speculation
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PatAg
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In reply to KidDoc • 10:09p, 12/20/21
AG
KidDoc said:
Pfizer says its COVID pill reduces risk of hospitalization or death by 89%. When will it be available? - CNET
What should we expect the cost for this pill to be?
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KidDoc
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In reply to PatAg • 7:55a, 12/21/21
AG
PatAg said:
KidDoc said:
Pfizer says its COVID pill reduces risk of hospitalization or death by 89%. When will it be available? - CNET
What should we expect the cost for this pill to be?
According to Biden it is "free".

Aka a taxpayer transfer to Pfizer, again.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
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AgsMyDude
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In reply to Demo_Slug • 9:16a, 12/21/21
AG
Demo_Slug said:
The explanation I got was that omicron breeds on the surfaces higher in the lungs. So you get bronchitis. And because it's in your bronchia it's easier to cough up and spread. It also makes it less serious because it's not deep in the lungs.

Fwiw I'm an idiot, so treat anything I say as wild speculation


That's exactly what this retired nurse (PhD) is describing and he's usually spot on


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cavscout96
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In reply to KidDoc • 6:50p, 12/21/21
AG
TY
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cc_ag92
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In reply to Coates • 7:41a, 12/22/21
AG
Coates said:
Jabin said:
Quote:
Maybe Omicron has been spreading much longer than people thought and those with no symptoms or very mild symptoms never got tested. Or maybe people now with mild symptoms aren't getting tested.
Exactly - "maybe". We just don't know yet.


There is data from multiple countries that hospitalizations and deaths are substantially lower.

My comment was directed to yours that it doesn't make sense that the cases are dropping so fast. Not sure why that even matters, counting cases hasn't been a good metric since the beginning.
"For example, the growth rate of Omicron in SA is now plummeting. No one is sure why."

I returned to Jabin's statements and don't see where he said that. He also didn't edit. No one is SURE why does not equal "it doesn't make sense." Did I miss his hyperbole or is it yours?
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Fashionably Late
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In reply to AgsMyDude • 8:47a, 12/22/21
AgsMyDude said:
Demo_Slug said:
The explanation I got was that omicron breeds on the surfaces higher in the lungs. So you get bronchitis. And because it's in your bronchia it's easier to cough up and spread. It also makes it less serious because it's not deep in the lungs.

Fwiw I'm an idiot, so treat anything I say as wild speculation


That's exactly what this retired nurse (PhD) is describing and he's usually spot on


wow, I really like the way this guy gives information
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AggieZUUL
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6:21p, 12/22/21
AG
loved the way he pronounced "trachea"

across the pond, indeed.
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AgsMyDude
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In reply to AgsMyDude • 7:03p, 12/22/21
AG
South Africa still looking really good and spike coming down?
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ramblin_ag02
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7:24p, 12/22/21
AG
https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/22/health/omicron-delta-covid-hospitalization-risk/index.html

Looking good so far! 80% less hospitalizations than delta in South Africa. 66% less in Scotland. Still early but this is encouraging
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
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AgsMyDude
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In reply to Fashionably Late • 7:27p, 12/22/21
AG
Fashionably Late said:
AgsMyDude said:
Demo_Slug said:
The explanation I got was that omicron breeds on the surfaces higher in the lungs. So you get bronchitis. And because it's in your bronchia it's easier to cough up and spread. It also makes it less serious because it's not deep in the lungs.

Fwiw I'm an idiot, so treat anything I say as wild speculation


That's exactly what this retired nurse (PhD) is describing and he's usually spot on


wow, I really like the way this guy gives information


Yeah he's excellent, been following him since last March. Very subjective, politics free, great explanations and critical when needed.
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amercer
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7:27p, 12/22/21
AG
All the news seems promising.
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StandUpforAmerica
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2:50p, 12/28/21
Stolen from another thread.....

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AgsMyDude
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3:28p, 12/28/21
AG
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Coates
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3:34p, 12/28/21
Reports out now that the CDC screwed up again (shocker) and must less % of cases are Omicron. Curious if that is mostly northern states since the south had a big delta spike over the summer.

Can any local docs at hospitals here confirm the Omincron numbers vs delta numbers?
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Aggie95
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In reply to Coates • 3:40p, 12/28/21
AG
Maybe CDC realizes that if majority of cases are Omicron....the game is almost over and they won't be as powerful.
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ramblin_ag02
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5:22p, 12/28/21
AG
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/current-covid-patients-hospital?country=GBR

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

Data regarding Omnicron and hospitalizations is looking great for the UK. Huge spike in cases and barely a blip in hospitalizations. Looks similar to the South Africa data, and so far Omnicron looks like a much weaker variant. It if provides immunity to other strains, then it will probably end the pandemic
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
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Fido04
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In reply to ramblin_ag02 • 6:41p, 12/28/21
AG
It does appear to enhance neutralizing immunity against the Delta variant.

Source PDF
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KidDoc
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7:16p, 12/28/21
AG
In Aggieland the health department is saying 90% omicron.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
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OldArmy71
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In reply to KidDoc • 7:40p, 12/28/21
AG
Just want to remind you that I and others follow your responses very closely and deeply appreciate your expertise and willingness to help.
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DadHammer
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In reply to KidDoc • 7:45p, 12/28/21
AG
KidDoc said:
In Aggieland the health department is saying 90% omicron.
Omicron took over pretty quickly, yes? Impressive spread capability.
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