May be a coincidence but I think all those states got a real blast of winter-like weather 2-3 weeks ago.Gumby said:After looking more at the state by state data, it looks like the Midwest states + MT, ND, SD, OK, AR are the ones that are currently experiencing record hospitalizations. East Coast, West Coast, and South are well below the peak hospitalization levels.Fitch said:
Gotcha. Yeah, that's strange it would be different across platforms.
Covid explosion
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Marcus Aurelius said:
What is your COVID census at Parkland? Curious. We're at 40. UAB at 80-90.
I miss Parkland BTW. Was hell training there but fond memories.
The hospital COVID census is >100 right now
It's bad
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plain_o_llama said:May be a coincidence but I think all those states got a real blast of winter-like weather 2-3 weeks ago.Gumby said:After looking more at the state by state data, it looks like the Midwest states + MT, ND, SD, OK, AR are the ones that are currently experiencing record hospitalizations. East Coast, West Coast, and South are well below the peak hospitalization levels.Fitch said:
Gotcha. Yeah, that's strange it would be different across platforms.
I've noticed similar timing with cases jumping west of I35 in areas seemingly more affected by cold fronts. Maybe a coincidence but does seem to make some sense.
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Another reason to move to Florida!!!
Fitch said:plain_o_llama said:May be a coincidence but I think all those states got a real blast of winter-like weather 2-3 weeks ago.Gumby said:After looking more at the state by state data, it looks like the Midwest states + MT, ND, SD, OK, AR are the ones that are currently experiencing record hospitalizations. East Coast, West Coast, and South are well below the peak hospitalization levels.Fitch said:
Gotcha. Yeah, that's strange it would be different across platforms.
I've noticed similar timing with cases jumping west of I35 in areas seemingly more affected by cold fronts. Maybe a coincidence but does seem to make some sense.
It is also why i think Houston hasnt really had the next wave. Maybe in January.
Not really a coincidence. The human coronaviruses are one of the causes of the cold and infections are very seasonal similar to the flu. One theory for cold and flu season is that as cold pushes people indoors, closer contact and recirculated drier air all contribute to increased spread.Fitch said:plain_o_llama said:May be a coincidence but I think all those states got a real blast of winter-like weather 2-3 weeks ago.Gumby said:After looking more at the state by state data, it looks like the Midwest states + MT, ND, SD, OK, AR are the ones that are currently experiencing record hospitalizations. East Coast, West Coast, and South are well below the peak hospitalization levels.Fitch said:
Gotcha. Yeah, that's strange it would be different across platforms.
I've noticed similar timing with cases jumping west of I35 in areas seemingly more affected by cold fronts. Maybe a coincidence but does seem to make some sense.
We would expect covid follows a similar pattern, but that pattern has been masked somewhat by the high susceptibility during the pandemic/epidemic phase and the pattern to become more distinct as we move to the endemic phase.
The movement indoors during temperature extremes also explains the midsummer spike across the south.
I've posted this chart before
https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/pdf/10.1146/annurev-virology-012420-022445
It seems possible the relative novelty of the virus contributed to spread during Summer when an otherwise endemic virus would be held in check. The interplay of testing for and identifying asymptomatic cases may also be an aspect of all of this. My non-expert suspicion is there is a seasonal difference in susceptibility that leads to a difference in disease progression and severity.
All that is just speculation from a member of the peanut gallery.
https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/pdf/10.1146/annurev-virology-012420-022445
It seems possible the relative novelty of the virus contributed to spread during Summer when an otherwise endemic virus would be held in check. The interplay of testing for and identifying asymptomatic cases may also be an aspect of all of this. My non-expert suspicion is there is a seasonal difference in susceptibility that leads to a difference in disease progression and severity.
All that is just speculation from a member of the peanut gallery.
Why in the name of all that is holy didn't we have plans in place for this? Every expert and his cousin was screaming that the winter would see a huge spike. Shouldn't there have been convention centers set up with beds, tents set up with beds, ships set up with beds, etc.?
Good points, and as I posted on another thread - all you have to do is look at the curves of Chile and Argentina to want to tap the brakes on declaring any seasonality to this.
They share a massive N-S border along the same range of latitude and their case curves are quite different in terms of both timing and steepness.
There certainly may prove to be seasonality, but it's way too early to tell.
They share a massive N-S border along the same range of latitude and their case curves are quite different in terms of both timing and steepness.
There certainly may prove to be seasonality, but it's way too early to tell.
Well, during the initial spikes early on in places like New York, there were some field hospitals set up that ended up seeing only a handful of patients. While useful exercises, there were massive outcries about government waste and unneeded capacity, etc.AggieAuditor said:
Why in the name of all that is holy didn't we have plans in place for this? Every expert and his cousin was screaming that the winter would see a huge spike. Shouldn't there have been convention centers set up with beds, tents set up with beds, ships set up with beds, etc.?
Hindsight is always 20/20, and in the fog of war that was New York's massive surge, I don't blame anyone in setting up those hospitals that went unutilized. That being said, again, with everything trending down people lowered their guard. If a month ago someone were to say we need to start standing up field hospitals they would've been laughed at, fiscal conservatives would've pointed to the massive unused capacity in the spring and called any plan to increase hospital capacity crazy.
I see the logic in your post but to me this all boils down to a numbers game. You have X number of beds and the (updated) predictions are Y number of cases. I think most experts agreed that the Y was going to be a big number in the winter. I'm not a big mask guy (I do comply, though) and I don't believe you can stop humans from being humans via lockdowns and Karen-shaming, but I was sure hoping our experts would have taken human nature into consideration and then prepared the hospitals and facilities accordingly. However, as my grandpa told me, s*#t in one hand and hope in the other and see which one fills up first.bigtruckguy3500 said:Well, during the initial spikes early on in places like New York, there were some field hospitals set up that ended up seeing only a handful of patients. While useful exercises, there were massive outcries about government waste and unneeded capacity, etc.AggieAuditor said:
Why in the name of all that is holy didn't we have plans in place for this? Every expert and his cousin was screaming that the winter would see a huge spike. Shouldn't there have been convention centers set up with beds, tents set up with beds, ships set up with beds, etc.?
Hindsight is always 20/20, and in the fog of war that was New York's massive surge, I don't blame anyone in setting up those hospitals that went unutilized. That being said, again, with everything trending down people lowered their guard. If a month ago someone were to say we need to start standing up field hospitals they would've been laughed at, fiscal conservatives would've pointed to the massive unused capacity in the spring and called any plan to increase hospital capacity crazy.
Just look around this forum. Many of the predictions of higher case loads, more deaths, etc. are treated as either the liberal scientists trying to make this look worse than it is, or the media making it look worse than it is.AggieAuditor said:I see the logic in your post but to me this all boils down to a numbers game. You have X number of beds and the (updated) predictions are Y number of cases. I think most experts agreed that the Y was going to be a big number in the winter. I'm not a big mask guy (I do comply, though) and I don't believe you can stop humans from being humans via lockdowns and Karen-shaming, but I was sure hoping our experts would have taken human nature into consideration and then prepared the hospitals and facilities accordingly. However, as my grandpa told me, s*#t in one hand and hope in the other and see which one fills up first.bigtruckguy3500 said:Well, during the initial spikes early on in places like New York, there were some field hospitals set up that ended up seeing only a handful of patients. While useful exercises, there were massive outcries about government waste and unneeded capacity, etc.AggieAuditor said:
Why in the name of all that is holy didn't we have plans in place for this? Every expert and his cousin was screaming that the winter would see a huge spike. Shouldn't there have been convention centers set up with beds, tents set up with beds, ships set up with beds, etc.?
Hindsight is always 20/20, and in the fog of war that was New York's massive surge, I don't blame anyone in setting up those hospitals that went unutilized. That being said, again, with everything trending down people lowered their guard. If a month ago someone were to say we need to start standing up field hospitals they would've been laughed at, fiscal conservatives would've pointed to the massive unused capacity in the spring and called any plan to increase hospital capacity crazy.
It is rare in this country for scientists to make and execute policy on their own. It's far more common for politicians to do it, sometimes with scientist input, sometimes not.
Also, most people under age 30 and/or without a health condition or someone they love that is vulnerable, has pretty much stopped caring about infection control and wants life to go back to normal. It's hard to promote a policy that people no longer care about.
Gumby said:After looking more at the state by state data, it looks like the Midwest states + MT, ND, SD, OK, AR are the ones that are currently experiencing record hospitalizations. East Coast, West Coast, and South are well below the peak hospitalization levels.Fitch said:
Gotcha. Yeah, that's strange it would be different across platforms.
Nationwide we are now at peak hospitalization due to the increase in the Midwest, however many other states appear to be in good shape relative to earlier hospitalization levels. I found the below chart to be really helpful - if you hover over each state you can see the history of hospitalizations. Look at the data per million instead of absolute. NJ / NY got up to 1,000 hospitalizations per Million and the highest state is currently SD at 614 per Million.
https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/currently-hospitalized-by-state
I don't think it's a coincidence either. If you look at the NYT graph, almost all of the red (outside of Laredo) is above 31N.
One of the reasons you don't lie to people is because they are much less likely to believe you the next time. We were told:
1. We need a few weeks to flatten the curve
2. Masks don't help
3. Masks do help
Sorry if I have little concern.
1. We need a few weeks to flatten the curve
2. Masks don't help
3. Masks do help
Sorry if I have little concern.
public health messaging has been completely disastrous
every mention of covid fatigue now makes me angry about how terribly they've managed the crisis
every mention of covid fatigue now makes me angry about how terribly they've managed the crisis
AggieAuditor said:
Why in the name of all that is holy didn't we have plans in place for this? Every expert and his cousin was screaming that the winter would see a huge spike. Shouldn't there have been convention centers set up with beds, tents set up with beds, ships set up with beds, etc.?
Those were setup at great expense and went unused during the first wave. That pretty much guaranteed they would not be used again.
I found out yesterday that the son of a family friend who lives in Iowa passed away. 38 years old, healthy, and active with no known underlying conditions. His wife had a positive COVID test 5 days ago. He started to feel bad two days ago, went to get a COVID test that day (results still pending) and died in his sleep that night of heart failure.
Anecdotal cases shouldn't dictate public policy and we need to let our college-age and younger kids live their lives given the small risk for their age group. This was a wake up call for me to be more prudent in my personal choices, though.
God bless our healthcare workers and those working to develop treatments and a vaccine.
Be safe, y'all.
Anecdotal cases shouldn't dictate public policy and we need to let our college-age and younger kids live their lives given the small risk for their age group. This was a wake up call for me to be more prudent in my personal choices, though.
God bless our healthcare workers and those working to develop treatments and a vaccine.
Be safe, y'all.
Sorry.
I just saw a 40 y/o male transferred to us. COVID. No underlying conditions. Maxed on vent. Severe acute renal failure. Renal is going to try to dialyze him. Don't think he will make it. Sad.
I just saw a 40 y/o male transferred to us. COVID. No underlying conditions. Maxed on vent. Severe acute renal failure. Renal is going to try to dialyze him. Don't think he will make it. Sad.
has the CDC updated their IFR numbers for age groups?
"Lie" is a very strong word.queso1 said:
One of the reasons you don't lie to people is because they are much less likely to believe you the next time. We were told:
1. We need a few weeks to flatten the curve
2. Masks don't help
3. Masks do help
Sorry if I have little concern.
The messaging has been inconsistent, and contradictory, as scientists, doctors, statisticians, etc., poured through the data, but I don't think anyone was being duplicitous.
That's very strange. Curious on test results. 2 days would be about the quickest covid death I've heard of.
Fauci admitted to a noble lie on masking.
They straight up lied or omitted to avoid a run on masks a la toilet paper back in March. When supplies were secured the message reversed. Damned either way, but doesn't make it right.
Fitch said:
They straight up lied or omitted to avoid a run on masks a la toilet paper back in March. When supplies were secured the message reversed. Damned either way, but doesn't make it right.
Yup, they didn't treat people like adults and at least advise wearing cloth masks. Instead, they said no masks work. Dumb.
Beat40 said:Fitch said:
They straight up lied or omitted to avoid a run on masks a la toilet paper back in March. When supplies were secured the message reversed. Damned either way, but doesn't make it right.
Yup, they didn't treat people like adults and at least advise wearing cloth masks. Instead, they said no masks work. Dumb.
To be fair, Americans have demonstrated little ability to behave like adults en masse in a very long time. It's difficult to fault policy makers from assuming that will continue, especially in a scenario where the predominant public emotions will be anger and fear.
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Beat40 said:Fitch said:
They straight up lied or omitted to avoid a run on masks a la toilet paper back in March. When supplies were secured the message reversed. Damned either way, but doesn't make it right.
Yup, they didn't treat people like adults and at least advise wearing cloth masks. Instead, they said no masks work. Dumb.
Dumb would have been telling the brainless huddled masses that masks were necessary during a time when they were in short supply, and watching them be hoarded and unavailable in the hospitals where they were desperately needed.
Thanks, Marcus. This stuff sucks.
Yeah...I thought the same. Maybe just a coincidence?
I was talking with a doc friend about it and they weren't surprised. Has anyone else heard of heart issues just a day after showing symptoms?
Aggie95 said:
That's very strange. Curious on test results. 2 days would be about the quickest covid death I've heard of.
Yeah...I thought the same. Maybe just a coincidence?
I was talking with a doc friend about it and they weren't surprised. Has anyone else heard of heart issues just a day after showing symptoms?
weird to approach a problem that requires public trust by betraying it right off the bat
reminds me of this
https://www.commentarymagazine.com/articles/james-meigs/elite-panic-vs-the-resilient-populace/
reminds me of this
https://www.commentarymagazine.com/articles/james-meigs/elite-panic-vs-the-resilient-populace/
you know there's a third way here
I expect there will be no post-pandemic "what we did wrong" out of the expert class
all I've heard so far is that people are stupid what did you expect, as if their trained job isn't to navigate the world as it is
luckily, I think I've learned a lesson. I'll never not have PPE in emergency stock.
all I've heard so far is that people are stupid what did you expect, as if their trained job isn't to navigate the world as it is
luckily, I think I've learned a lesson. I'll never not have PPE in emergency stock.
Girlfriend's dad was released from the hospital just two days ago. He tested positive, was in the ER 3 days later, admitted to the hospital 2 days later, and in the ICU for several days. It was pretty rough for a few days, but keeping him on his stomach was just enough to keep him off a vent. He is still nowhere near 100%, but he is progressing slowly.
hell, now CDC guidance has changed to state your mask actually does protect you
so did we really not understand the effectiveness of PPE with regard to viral spread in February?
so did we really not understand the effectiveness of PPE with regard to viral spread in February?
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