A look ahead to the draft and roster for next year

31,380 Views | 210 Replies | Last: 10 yr ago by jkag89
Foxo
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Logan Taylor @LTaylor_005
2h2 hours ago

Beyond excited to be a Mariner! God is good and His timing is perfect; thankful for everyone who has supported me through it all!
MINNESOTAAGGIE
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Good to see Gandy get drafted he had a great season at West Alabama!!

2015: All-GSC and All-Region recognition ... Named to All-South Region Tournament Team ... Made 14 starts as member of weekend pitching rotation ... Finished season with 7-3 record and 1.82 ERA ... Pitched 84 innings, striking out 71 and walking 29 ... Allowed just 17 earned runs and 62 hits ... Opponents batted just .203 against him ... Allowed just two home runs ... Averaged 6.0 innings pitched per outing ... Had a 2.4 strikeout to walks ratio ... Averaged 7.61 strikeouts per nine inning game.
WGann3
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quote:
Logan Taylor @LTaylor_005
2h2 hours ago

Beyond excited to be a Mariner! God is good and His timing is perfect; thankful for everyone who has supported me through it all!
Soooooo.... He gone?
Bunk Moreland
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quote:
Good to see Gandy get drafted he had a great season at West Alabama!!

2015: All-GSC and All-Region recognition ... Named to All-South Region Tournament Team ... Made 14 starts as member of weekend pitching rotation ... Finished season with 7-3 record and 1.82 ERA ... Pitched 84 innings, striking out 71 and walking 29 ... Allowed just 17 earned runs and 62 hits ... Opponents batted just .203 against him ... Allowed just two home runs ... Averaged 6.0 innings pitched per outing ... Had a 2.4 strikeout to walks ratio ... Averaged 7.61 strikeouts per nine inning game.

Yep! Congrats to Gandy!
Foxo
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Clay Cox @CoachCox19
5m5 minutes ago

Big S/O to Gandy Stubblefield (@Agbaseball23) of @uwa_baseball selected in the 28th Round of the MLB Draft by the Philadelphia Phillies!
JeffHamilton82
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baseball has partial scholarships so these guys are not leaving a lot of $ on the table by signing for a pro signing bonus. Also many can negotiate for the MLB club to commit to paying for their remaining college if they wash out of pro ball.

A player can apply his money to paying for his future college, but the club isn't going to pay that in addition to what they were already willing to pay him unless we are talking about early rounds picks. A player in round 10 is going to have appx $130,000 gross to work with. He has to pay payroll taxes, income taxes and agent fees, which are higher than the 3% mentioned above. A 20th round pick has about $50,000 gross and a 30th round pick has about $30,000 gross.

Keep in mind that these are 7 year contracts, that are one-sided. A player will receive $5-15k/yr in minor league ball. So you need to spread that money out over 7 years! But honestly, if you haven't made AAA ball or better after 5 years, then you're 99% going to be leaving baseball for the real world.
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Q. How long are Minor League players required to remain with the team that drafted them before they are eligible to negotiate with another team?

A. According to Major League Rule 3(b), "All Minor League Uniform Player Contracts between either a Major or a Minor League Club and a player who has not previously signed a contract with a Major or a Minor League Club shall be for a term of seven Minor League playing seasons."


There is no pot of gold here. Not even a pot of silver. There is no HUGE monetary benefit to "going pro" (which really means you're a minimum wage worker at a ballpark that makes TCU's park look like the Taj Mahal).

It boils down to where do you want to spend the next 12 months of your life?

JeffHamilton82
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Beyond excited to be a Mariner!

Not trying to be mean, just being real. You're an Everett AquaSox and next year you will be a Clinton Lumberking. If some years down the road you become a Tacoma Ranier (AAA) then you've beaten the odds. Congrats!
Tex100
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Yeah, but some do make it to MLB, and if you wait too late, you have no shot at all.
WGann3
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Aqua socks are badass for central Texas river trips.
Lefty96
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We are now at round 23, up in the 670's.

Hoping that we are pretty close to safely being able to assume anyone not drafted at this point is going to return.

I guess if there's one other guy who hasn't been drafted that I'd worry about, it'd be Vinson. But even that perceived concern may not be one at all.
Hopefully we can hold on to at least 2 of the following: Kent, Stubblefield and Vinson. And we should be able to hold on to incoming recruits Kolek and Ivey as well. If so, I think we'll be fine next year on the mound given the return of Ecker, Hendrix, Simonds, Martin and Larkins.
JeffHamilton82
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Yeah, but some do make it to MLB, and if you wait too late, you have no shot at all.

Playing for the Aggies instead of the AquaSox is not going to lower your already superslim chances of making MLB one bit. In my opinion, it will raise them slightly.
Bunk Moreland
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Yeah, but some do make it to MLB, and if you wait too late, you have no shot at all.

Playing for the Aggies instead of the AquaSox is not going to lower your already superslim chances of making MLB one bit. In my opinion, it will raise them slightly.

So staying in school, playing in a summer league, then working out in fall ball, and playing your senior season in college with metal bats is raising your slim chances of making the MLB over going now, playing 50+ games in A ball from now until September, learning how to better handle the wooden bat, playing against consistently better guys than you see on a college schedule, and learning how to live in a different city on your own, adjust to life as an adult and get experience with a more pro style feel to the game?

I disagree. Logan is not an 18 year old freshman having to make the go or wait 3 year decision. It's only a one year thing, and I don't see what staying at A&M has to offer him that's better than starting the clock now. If he comes back and mashes for the Ags, then most likely he'll go mash for the low A ball team he start with, and he can begin moving up the ranks, or begin figuring out how long baseball will be in his future.

And we've explained multiple times...coming back as a senior drastically reduces his ability to command big signing money. So he'd have to hit .400, 20 HR, 60 RBI's or something ridiculous to truly earn major life-changing money. Or, he can maybe try to negotiate a little extra now, and start his career.

Now staying, graduating, and all that...yeah there's something to be said there. But as has been said so many times on this board...these guys have different mindsets about college that many on here want them to have.
Mr.Ackar07
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To put in perspective, about 200-250 players make their MLB debut each season. 1,215 players are drafted each year. That does not include foreign player signees.

Many of those 200-250 debuts don't stick.
Mr.Ackar07
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Debuts by year/Players on 2015 rosters

2010: 203/81
2011: 239/107
2012: 206/105
2013: 230/121
2014: 234/142
PlayToWin2000
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Nick Banks isn't listed.
Nick Banks isn't draft eligible.


Can someone explain why Banks isn't draft eligible?
Mr.Ackar07
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quote:
quote:
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Nick Banks isn't listed.
Nick Banks isn't draft eligible.


Can someone explain why Banks isn't draft eligible?
He's a sophomore in college and not 21 years of age. College students (non-Junior College students) are only eligible if they are juniors or 21 years of age.
MAROON
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A player can apply his money to paying for his future college, but the club isn't going to pay that in addition to what they were already willing to pay him unless we are talking about early rounds picks.
http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/official_info/scholarship.jsp?content=guide_post_20041003

Baseball has a scholarship plan. I know of a 20+ rounder who got this last year. Its not just for the early round picks.
Sex Panther
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Once again Jeff Hamilton is talking completely out of his ass


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A player can apply his money to paying for his future college, but the club isn't going to pay that in addition to what they were already willing to pay him unless we are talking about early rounds picks.

This is a very common addendum


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agent fees, which are higher than the 3% mentioned above.

Oh? So tell me Jeff... how much is it?



Logan made his decision. It was a very reasonable one to make. You sound like a kid who didn't get his way. This is how the system is set up. You have to be an Everett Aquasox before you can be a Seattle Mariner. He's ready to go.
Tex100
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To put in perspective, about 200-250 players make their MLB debut each season. 1,215 players are drafted each year. That does not include foreign player signees.

Many of those 200-250 debuts don't stick.
Do you think these guys don't know this. You never make it if you don't try, and after a certain age, your chances are dwindling. Happens in other careers, too.
Lefty96
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Interesting... Astros draft Conor Biggio in the 34th round and Kody Clemens in the 35th.
Tex100
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I think those are courtesy picks. Kenny Hill was drafted by Rangers out of HS, I think.
Tex100
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http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1219356-examining-the-percentage-of-mlb-draft-picks-that-reach-the-major-leagues/page/7


Here is a link with the percentage of players by draft who reach the pros.


My son and I were having this discussion last week. If you are a Taylor or a Kent, and it says you have only an 11% of making MLB. vs. staying for an extra year and maybe getting the Ags to Omaha, what do you do?
JeffHamilton82
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quote:
quote:
A player can apply his money to paying for his future college, but the club isn't going to pay that in addition to what they were already willing to pay him unless we are talking about early rounds picks.
http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/official_info/scholarship.jsp?content=guide_post_20041003

Baseball has a scholarship plan. I know of a 20+ rounder who got this last year. Its not just for the early round picks.
I'm doing a poor job of communicating. I'm sorry. Yes, a guy not drafted in the first 10 rounds can get "college money". But that money is coming out of the maximum $100,000 a club can pay him (yes, there are some exceptions to the $100k max, but not many). What I was trying to say about early round draftees is that the coub will pay slot money and pay the school money on top of the slot money. Sorry I confused you into thinking late round guys can't get college money

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Signing bonuses are capped at $100,000 per player from rounds 11-40 of the MLB Draft. Source
Tex100
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http://www.si.com/mlb/strike-zone/2014/06/09/mike-piazza-keith-hernandez-albert-pujols-late-round-draft-picks


But some of the late rounders who made it were really good.
atm0812
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If you are as good as Taylor or Kent, you believe you are the 11%, statistics or not. These guys aren't successful without that mindset.
JeffHamilton82
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quote:

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quote:agent fees, which are higher than the 3% mentioned above.

Oh? So tell me Jeff... how much is it?
Maybe you're thinking NFL and NBA
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Commission LimitsAn agent's commission varies, based on the sport he represents. Generally, a sports agent earns between 4 and 10 percent of an athlete's playing contract, though some leagues place limits on what percentage an agent can charge in commission. For example, the National Football League states that an agent can't receive more than 3 percent of player salaries. The National Basketball Association places the limit at 3 percent too. Major League Baseball and the National Hockey League don't have any limits on agent commissions, however.
Source

Keep in mind on these small contracts that often a player has to pay the minimum commission which can be more than the standard 5%.
Sex Panther
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Maybe you're thinking NFL and NBA

No, I'm not...


Jeff, just trust me on this. Max a baseball agent is taking is 4%.

If a player is dumb enough to give them more, they should've stayed in school longer.
JeffHamilton82
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Here is a new development due to the recent players union contract

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Interestingly, college seniors could engage in a cat-and-mouse game whereby they gain extraordinary leverage in the new system created by the Collective Bargaining Agreement. While all 57 college seniors drafted within the first 10 rounds of the 2013 MLB Draft signed their offer sheets, a college senior who fails to sign at an amount well below slot could serve as a huge detriment to the selecting team. Because the recommended slot value will be counted against the team's entire spending allocation, the team has an incentive to sign the college senior
The numbers attached to each slot within the first 10 rounds are added up to compute an overall spending allocation per team. The lightest penalty exists when a team goes less than 5% over its allocation and must pay a luxury tax of 75% of the amount over the threshold. On the other end of the spectrum is a 100% luxury tax and forfeiture of its next 2 first round picks for any team that goes at least 15% over its allocation.
The rules of the game have changed and a lot of you guys are hanging onto outdated info and ways of doing things.
Mr.Ackar07
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With 100 picks to go, the SEC 1st team DH, Mitchell Nau, still remains on the board.
Tex100
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Here is an article that shows the average age of getting to the MLB. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=13018


I would say that in general, it is a mistake to come back for your senior year because you need to the time to develop. OTOH, I do recall hearing an analyst say recently that under the new rules, teams are starting to like to draft seniors in rounds 7 - 10 because they can pay them less from the pool and have more to spend on other round 1 - 10 players.

And they can get better. I guess one shining example is Allemand. I don't know what his projection was last year but I can't imagine it was anywhere close to the 5th round. Mikey Reynolds was helped a great deal too. He went from like the 20th to the 5th.
txag614
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quote:
With 100 picks to go, the SEC 1st team DH, Mitchell Nau, still remains on the board.
Foxo
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With 100 picks to go, the SEC 1st team DH, Mitchell Nau, still remains on the board.
Already 1174 players chosen. What did Nau have to do to get noticed? Leading a good SEC batting team in average. Batting in the 3 hole for the entire year. I just don't get it.
Chuck Gay
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I'd look at it from the flip side. You can improve your money significantly next year by moving up in the draft. But guys like Taylor or Kent are unlikely to be drafted lower.

Upside of coming back is bigger than the downside.
dirkjones
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like to draft seniors in rounds 7 - 10 because they can pay them less from the pool and have more to spend on other round 1 - 10 players.

Yes, as an example look at Troy Stein from last year. Drafted in the 10 th round, slot pay was $140k. Signed for only $10 k, probably a take it or leave it deal.





dirkjones
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Foxo, where would you play Nau at the next level? I'll agree he had an outstanding year at Dh this year. But has a below average arm at catcher, not a lot of power that most MLB dh's have, and not a lot of speed. I would have thought Krey Bratsen would have projected much better as a next level player than Mitchell.
 
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