The problem is that it makes too much sense and it fixes problems without creating any new ones and so it really isn't feasible.

bobinator said:

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I sort of wonder this year if they're going to try even harder to keep teams closer to home. There is a significant charter plane shortage right now partly due to the government using them to deport people and partly due to the partial government shutdown affecting flights. The NCAA sent a warning out a couple of weeks ago that travel for this year's tournament could be a problem.

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Exactly. Hold onto your butts.

Drama in the WAC still.

A statement from the WAC Board of Directors pic.twitter.com/Rq2djx5Nqb

— The Western Athletic Conference (@WACsports) March 10, 2026

Utah Valley went conference hopping and they owe the WAC a $1MM exit fee. So far, UV is refusing to pony up.

I am sure they will get an injunction.

ColleyvilleAg06 said:

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bobinator said:

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Agree, you'd want at least some flexibility with the matchups even if you might have to pre-determine who can be on the road and who can be at home for ticketing purposes.

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If you did 2 "challenges" you could set it up where A&M is the home for the big 12 team on Feb 21 and on the road for the big 10 challenge on Feb 28. That way you can go ahead and do the event planning, ticket sales and know the media rights.

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OR you do mini-regionals where you divide the leagues into neutral site hosts and play multiple games in NBA arenas. Find 3-4 with an empty Saturday and then play 3-4 games on that day. Would be a blast to attend and gotta figure the kids would like to play in those gyms.

Captn_Ag05 said:

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I am sure they will get an injunction.

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They have until Thursday when the tourney starts. It's a one bid league and not playing means not dancing.

It's an interesting game of chicken.

Virginia Tech and Stanford evidently do not want to be part of the Big Dance and would rather be in the NIT.

OP updated officially eliminating Stanford and all but with Virginia Tech. Still getting ramped up with Conference Tournament bubble games with Tuesday being the 1st day with a full slate of action and a few bubble teams with chances to score a big win (and a few others trying to avoid a bad loss)

Waiting for Buzz snd Solo (Payne still out with injury - right?) to PUNCH some BIG teams in the EYES this week - specifically to knock off the HawkEYES and then the BuckEYES... so that the Texas Aggie BuckEES can move up in NCAAT seeding with a few wins in the SECT. :-D

(in before someone comments that they're sure this sounded better in my mind before I actually wrote it)

If Utah Valley gets an injunction, they should just foul out their entire team in the first half.

Utah Valley to play in WAC tournaments after settling $1M exit fee dispute

Fanatic15...Drs2B! said:

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Waiting for Buzz snd Solo (Payne still out with injury - right?) to PUNCH some BIG teams in the EYES this week - specifically to knock off the HawkEYES and then the BuckEYES... so that the Texas Aggie BuckEES can move up in NCAAT seeding with a few wins in the SECT. :-D

(in before someone comments that they're sure this sounded better in my mind before I actually wrote it)

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Yes! It was late! Meant Solo.

Interesting article about the "Wins Above Bubble" Metric that's become a part of the committee's discussion recently.
https://sports.yahoo.com/mens-college-basketball/article/how-a-professional-gamblers-hatred-turned-into-the-key-data-point-for-evaluating-ncaa-tournament-bubble-teams-153022435.html

Quote:

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Wins Above Bubble has rapidly become the key data point used by the NCAA selection committee to determine the final at-large berths

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Quote:

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On Feb. 1, 2015, Burn wrote a blog post introducing a new rsum-based metric that he created to help objectively compare the achievements of teams that played vastly different strengths of schedules. Wins Above Bubble measures a team's total number of victories compared to how many wins the average bubble team would be expected to rack up against the same schedule.

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I stand by what I said in that that other thread, I kinda think the NET WAB is so good they should just use it as the starting point to seed the tournament. And then from there maybe a human committee can tweak it a little bit based on some human factors that aren't considered in the WAB. Like "this team was much better both before and after this significant injury so maybe we move them up a couple of spots" or whatever.

bobinator said:

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I stand by what I said in that that other thread, I kinda think the NET WAB is so good they should just use it as the starting point to seed the tournament. And then from there maybe a human committee can tweak it a little bit based on some human factors that aren't considered in the WAB. Like "this team was much better both before and after this significant injury so maybe we move them up a couple of spots" or whatever.

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I agree

It seems they finally came up with a metric that really works

Wednesday afternoon small update - Iowa moves to lock.

Results from the committee's initial ballot are in. 22 teams received enough support (all but 3 eligible votes) to get voted into the field as at-large while 35 got at least 4 votes to make it to the under consideration board. Combined with 12 AQs, we have 34 teams in the field.

— David Worlock (@DavidWorlock) March 11, 2026

Really interesting tweet here which explains why it is not viable for teams like Oklahoma State, Arizona state, West Virginia, seton hall etc to play their way in.

They have 57 teams that are either already in or under consideration for 46 spots (after 22 auto bids are done from what will be 1 bid leagues.

They do this every year. By essentially creating the universe of teams that can get in on Wednesday, it completely ignores teams that make miraculous runs to the championship game and then lose.

I have 56 at large teams that I felt were under consideration at the start of the day. I suspect their list is pretty close and maybe includes Stanford or USC.

They will take a look at this 56 and by their process keep voting another 4-6 in at a time until their field is essentially set by Friday and really at no point in time are they going to re run the numbers to see who they missed.

Posted mine then looked at yours. 100% agreement. When it is this flawed just do everyone a favor and don't say anything and let us believe that every team is getting the right amount of consideration and they are taking this seriously.

ColleyvilleAg06 said:

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Posted mine then looked at yours. 100% agreement. When it is this flawed just do everyone a favor and don't say anything and let us believe that every team is getting the right amount of consideration and they are taking this seriously.

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Agreed most years, but this year, if you asked me to name 56 teams that had a chance at making it, I would nail any team that made the dance.

Bah I didnt see this post before starting the thread about it. I think i started following that dude last season.

Insanity.

Possible that these fringe bubble teams were fringe because they are not very good and were fringe bubble because they had not played the better teams in their conference.

I live in Albuquerque - so Lobos are my "second team".

Hoping New Mexico can win the Mountain West Conference Tournament Championship for the autobid, as Utah State will surely then get an at large invitation.

Colleyville Ag - what other potential bid thieves might emerge this week and cause enough chaos to push the t-sips out of getting an at large bid?

The potential bid stealers are:

- anyone but Miami of Ohio winning the MAC
- anyone but Utah State winning the Mountain West
- anyone but St Louis or VCU winning the Atlantic 10

And then anyone huge shocker winning one of the big tournaments. The most likely of these is the Big East where anyone but Villanova, St John's or UConn would be a bid stealer.

No bid stealers left in the Big12 assuming UCF is in

CDub06 said:

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Interesting article about the "Wins Above Bubble" Metric that's become a part of the committee's discussion recently.
https://sports.yahoo.com/mens-college-basketball/article/how-a-professional-gamblers-hatred-turned-into-the-key-data-point-for-evaluating-ncaa-tournament-bubble-teams-153022435.html

Quote:

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Wins Above Bubble has rapidly become the key data point used by the NCAA selection committee to determine the final at-large berths

---

Quote:

---

On Feb. 1, 2015, Burn wrote a blog post introducing a new rsum-based metric that he created to help objectively compare the achievements of teams that played vastly different strengths of schedules. Wins Above Bubble measures a team's total number of victories compared to how many wins the average bubble team would be expected to rack up against the same schedule.

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yea Auburn and LSU would've essentially dropped us to even

Fair enough.

Is tu in a precarious enough position that one bid stealer might be all it takes? Or two? Or will it take three?

Just love the idea of those guys having to settle for a NIT appearance.

I'd love it myself but I fear we're going begging on that one. They're not leaving the golden child out. Especially when they have a (slightly) better resume than they did last year when they "somehow" made it to Dayton. Plus this year we've got bubble teams dropping like flies. Sip is in unfortunately. And undeservedly

I think they need at least three.

People can cry conspiracy all they want but Texas resume is definitely better than several of the teams between them and the cut line. So we'd need the cut line to move toward them AND some teams behind them to jump them and there's only a couple teams left that even have that possibility.

But we'll have a better idea in the morning when the numbers run and see where they likely shake out against all the other teams that lost today.

OP is updated.

Cincy, Cal and Boise State officially eliminated. UCF moves into lock status.

I have Texas as #66 meaning 3 teams would need to pass them (and/or 3 bids stolen). Feels like they can likely start packing their bags for Dayton once again.

Will update a bit more throughout the morning adding in what to watch for today and also a bid thief tracker now that it is starting to get down to a manageable number.