GCP12 said:

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Of @ESPNLunardi's last seven at-large teams and his first five teams out of the field, nine were in action today.

All nine lost.

Missouri
Texas
SMU
Indiana
New Mexico
Auburn
Virginia Tech
Cincinnati
California

0-9 today.

— Jeff Borzello (@jeffborzello) March 8, 2026

Sheesh

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I certainly did not have that on my bingo card.

Really interesting but most of those outcomes were expected, i.e., the favored team won. Realizing the conference tournaments are still to come and some implications have been covered in posts from last night, what are the real world effects of those nine teams losing? Not suggesting a team-by-team analysis but what would be a couple quick takeaways? Is Auburn now out of the NCAA tournament unless they win next week? The Texas loss was unexpected (and welcome!) but are they still likely to make the Big Dance regardless of what happens in the SEC tournament? Just trying to foster the good discussion.

BubblesMcGee said:

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Really interesting but most of those outcomes were expected, i.e., the favored team won. Realizing the conference tournaments are still to come and some implications have been covered in posts from last night, what are the real world effects of those nine teams losing? Not suggesting a team-by-team analysis but what would be a couple quick takeaways? Is Auburn now out of the NCAA tournament unless they win next week? The Texas loss was unexpected (and welcome!) but are they still likely to make the Big Dance regardless of what happens in the SEC tournament? Just trying to foster the good discussion.

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Honestly, they were all bunched really close in my model. Haven't checked it this morning... yet, but if the committee decides to leave a team out, I have to say, the team has their chance and blew it.

I would think if your loss was on the road against a top team, then maybe that makes you look better?

Thanks. I don't have anything approaching the insight you and CoffeyvilleAg06 have on the bracket and am no fan of Joe Lunardi. But I've found the periodic summaries by the ESPN writer (Neil Paine) posted below helpful. Looking at my Auburn and Texas questions, it seems those losses didn't affect their placement in his groupings (locks, etc.). They just made their sutuations more precarious (which I suppose is obvious). I was also interested in his comment on the effect of our win over LSU compared to a loss, basically a 20% (80 vs 60%) difference, in our chance to make the tournament. Although, it seems the vast majority of bracketologists now have us as a "lock."

https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/47809690/bubble-watch-mens-ncaa-tournament-march-madness-bracket-predictions-2026

Beating LSU is more than just a road win against a bad team IMO

Moving to the 6 seed , winning 2 in a row , being four games over 500 has a cumulative affect that all resulted from this very important win

Taken together and the collapsing bubble Reluctantly the guys at ESPN had to move us to lock. I don't buy into the the world hates A&M but this team
with the bad OOC results
the hot start against bad teams
the mid season fade
the ugly style we occasionally play
the lack of star power
Makes A&M is an easy team to dislike and it sometimes felt that ESPN wanted to put
Mizzou, Auburn Kentucky and tu firmly ahead of us and that would put us close to the bubble
Bucky and the team got it done and rose to number 6 and eventually you have to look at the record and 11-7 gets you in every time

BubblesMcGee said:

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Thanks. I don't have anything approaching the insight you and CoffeyvilleAg06 have on the bracket and am no fan of Joe Lunardi. But I've found the periodic summaries by the ESPN writer (Neil Paine) posted below helpful. Looking at my Auburn and Texas questions, it seems those losses didn't affect their placement in his groupings (locks, etc.). They just made their sutuations more precarious (which I suppose is obvious). I was also interested in his comment on the effect of our win over LSU compared to a loss, basically a 20% (80 vs 60%) difference, in our chance to make the tournament. Although, it seems the vast majority of bracketologists now have us as a "lock."

https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/47809690/bubble-watch-mens-ncaa-tournament-march-madness-bracket-predictions-2026

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Yeah, no one took the bull by the horns and are leaving it up to the judges. NET WAB hasn't updated this morning yet, but I think the final four spots will be determined from 5 teams: VCU, SMU, Texas, Auburn, and Indiana. Virginia Tech is outside this group.

GCP12 said:

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I checked the KenPom archives (1997-Present).

There has never been a team from the #1 ranked conference finish at least 4 games above .500 in conference play and be left out of the NCAA Tournament.

Road wins are like gold, and Texas A&M finishes the 2026 regular season an… https://t.co/0EpdTjXOLf

— JBR (@JBRBracketology) March 8, 2026

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We are two games above .500 though.

Tony beat me to the point

aggietony2010 said:

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11-7 = 4

That's how games over .500 work.

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9-9 is 500. We have won 2 more games over a .500 team and if we lost 2 more games than we did we would have been .500. Two games over a .500 record.

Thanks! It makes more sense to say it the "sports world" way when there are games remaining to be played. Like during a baseball season with plenty of games to play up 4 games then you would have to lose 4 more to get to .500 then you're "up 4 games on .500". It's at the end of the season when it sounds weird to me.

I'll go back to being happy about our win and tu's loss now!

TombstoneTex said:

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Thanks! It makes more sense to say it the "sports world" way when there are games remaining to be played. Like during a baseball season with plenty of games to play up 4 games then you would have to lose 4 more to get to .500 then you're "up 4 games on .500". It's at the end of the season when it sounds weird to me.

I'll go back to being happy about our win and tu's loss now!

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Failure to win incurs the additional penalty of taking an L. Now take yours and carry on.

TombstoneTex said:

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Can always count on you for a snarky comment.

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It was my minor. Should have minored in bartending, way more lucrative.

TombstoneTex said:

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Can't argue with the Math Guy!

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Username checks out.

Is there any chance we can play our way to a 7 seed or drop to a 10? It's seems a 10 seed for us would be better than an 8-9

AFarmer95 said:

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Is there any chance we can play our way to a 7 seed or drop to a 10? It's seems a 10 seed for us would be better than an 8-9

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I think we'll be a 10

I think we end up in the 8/9 game. Not where we want to be, but at least we are in.

AFarmer95 said:

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Is there any chance we can play our way to a 7 seed or drop to a 10? It's seems a 10 seed for us would be better than an 8-9

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There is a pretty big gap from where I have us versus the last 7 seed and I have us as an 8 seed currently. I think we would need to win the tourney or make it to Sunday to have a chance. If we got a double bye, then that might be a possibility. But I don't see us having a chance at winning the conference tourney.

LouisvilleAg said:

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AFarmer95 said:

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Is there any chance we can play our way to a 7 seed or drop to a 10? It's seems a 10 seed for us would be better than an 8-9

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There is a pretty big gap from where I have us versus the last 7 seed and I have us as an 8 seed currently. I think we would need to win the tourney or make it to Sunday to have a chance. If we got a double bye, then that might be a possibility. But I don't see us having a chance at winning the conference tourney.

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What needs to happen to drop to a 10 seed besides the obvious of dropping OU game?

Also do you see any scenarios where we fall to the 11 seed but not the play in game ?

bullard21k said:

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LouisvilleAg said:

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AFarmer95 said:

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Is there any chance we can play our way to a 7 seed or drop to a 10? It's seems a 10 seed for us would be better than an 8-9

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There is a pretty big gap from where I have us versus the last 7 seed and I have us as an 8 seed currently. I think we would need to win the tourney or make it to Sunday to have a chance. If we got a double bye, then that might be a possibility. But I don't see us having a chance at winning the conference tourney.

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What needs to happen to drop to a 10 seed besides the obvious of dropping OU game?

Also do you see any scenarios where we fall to the 11 seed but not the play in game ?

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We know the ingredients. We don't know the recipe. But I don't see in any dimension we could be in the play in game. High of an 8 seed, low as a 10 seed.

If Dominguez hits the 3 against Tennessee, we're solidly on the 7 line. So I'll take 10. Same thing.

Seeding means absolutely nothing. What matters is location of games and matchups

Gotta beat a one seed eventually to win the national title, might as well try it with them on a short prep

LouisvilleAg said:

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bullard21k said:

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LouisvilleAg said:

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AFarmer95 said:

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Is there any chance we can play our way to a 7 seed or drop to a 10? It's seems a 10 seed for us would be better than an 8-9

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There is a pretty big gap from where I have us versus the last 7 seed and I have us as an 8 seed currently. I think we would need to win the tourney or make it to Sunday to have a chance. If we got a double bye, then that might be a possibility. But I don't see us having a chance at winning the conference tourney.

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What needs to happen to drop to a 10 seed besides the obvious of dropping OU game?

Also do you see any scenarios where we fall to the 11 seed but not the play in game ?

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We know the ingredients. We don't know the recipe. But I don't see in any dimension we could be in the play in game. High of an 8 seed, low as a 10 seed.

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No I'm saying NOT in the play in game but still an 11 seed

No possibility of falling that far?

I don't think so either unless the conference tournaments are really off the rails in several leagues.