Well if you want one, we hope to be in UConn's. I don't want to face UConn, but if we get to choose, they would be my pick.

Torvik metrics has us moved up to a 9 overnight. Would prefer the 10 to get to Sweet 16.

https://barttorvik.com/tranketology.php

It's pretty wild that ESPN still has us in their "should be in" category rather than a lock. In what world is a 21-win team that finished in 6th in a 10 or 11 bid league not guaranteed?

Scotts Tot said:

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It's pretty wild that ESPN still has us in their "should be in" category rather than a lock. In what world is a 21-win team that finished TIED FOR 4TH in a 10 or 11 bid league not guaranteed?

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FIFY before the tiebreakers. Gonna stick with this scenario.

https://barttorvik.com/tranketology.php

What's the difference between Torvik's "IN%" (Chances of Making Tourny and the "Bid%" (Estimated Chance of Receiving an At-Large Bid). Former is 99% and the latter is 85.8%. That seems to be a large difference between two values that seem to be saying the same thing. What subtlety has escaped me?

Theoretically winning the conference tournament but I don't see those same numbers

agent-maroon said:

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https://barttorvik.com/tranketology.php

What's the difference between Torvik's "IN%" (Chances of Making Tourny and the "Bid%" (Estimated Chance of Receiving an At-Large Bid). Former is 99% and the latter is 85.8%. That seems to be a large difference between two values that seem to be saying the same thing. What subtlety has escaped me?

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I'm guessing the spread would imply we have a 14% chance of receiving the SEC auto bid?

Luigi Vampa said:

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agent-maroon said:

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https://barttorvik.com/tranketology.php

What's the difference between Torvik's "IN%" (Chances of Making Tourny and the "Bid%" (Estimated Chance of Receiving an At-Large Bid). Former is 99% and the latter is 85.8%. That seems to be a large difference between two values that seem to be saying the same thing. What subtlety has escaped me?

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I'm guessing the spread would imply we have a 14% chance of receiving the SEC auto bid?

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This

Maybe I am misunderstanding, but we finished 9-9 in conference that year. OU is 4 games under at 7-11. I fail to see how OU should get in without the autobid.

Yeah that team was 20-11 heading into the tournament. OU would need to win this, I think.

Thanks!

AggieJ2002 said:

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Maybe I am misunderstanding, but we finished 9-9 in conference that year. OU is 4 games under at 7-11. I fail to see how OU should get in without the autobid.

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Chiming in. I believe we were in similar spots as being first four out. If Oklahoma makes a run to the conference final but loses, do they get in?

I say no. You got 5 teams vying for 4 spurs and then there is a significant drop-off. Meaning OU would have to win the tourney to get in.

I think OU is a little closer to the cut line than we were in 2022. People are at least talking about the possibility.

The metrics involved are a little different now too. I don't think there's any way Rutgers gets in in the post-WAB world.

Of course they shouldn't have gotten in anyway.

Everyone else on the bubble keeps losing and they have to fill the bracket. They're out now, but if they win 3 games in the SEC tournament, they could find their way in

So we go from a 12-seed or not in the tourney, to a 9-seed because we beat 3-win LSU.

Major conference teams are no longer 12 seeds. If LSU wins the SEC, they're an 11. We were a projected 10 before UK assuming 10-8. We won. Everyone else lost. Now we're an 8/9. Not sure how this is hard to understand.

LSU actually might be a 12 depending on who wins a few of these small conference tournaments and what winning the SECT did for their metrics.

CapCityAg89 said:

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Major conference teams are no longer 12 seeds. If LSU wins the SEC, they're an 11. We were a projected 10 before UK assuming 10-8. We won. Everyone else lost. Now we're an 8/9. Not sure how this is hard to understand.

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I hate being a 9. But glad we are in.

Method Man said:

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CapCityAg89 said:

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Major conference teams are no longer 12 seeds. If LSU wins the SEC, they're an 11. We were a projected 10 before UK assuming 10-8. We won. Everyone else lost. Now we're an 8/9. Not sure how this is hard to understand.

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I hate being a 9. But glad we are in.

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Honestly, I feel like being a 9 wouldn't be the end of the world. If we get Arizona/Duke/Michigan who have one day to prep for us I feel like we could make some magic happen.

Either way, two years ago Bucky proved that his system is really hard to prepare for, so I think we'd give a lot of really good teams a great game.

It is just nice that we can enjoy the SECT and not sweat it - even if SC beats Okie Wednesday and then somehow beats us Thursday night (which would be our first and only Quad 3 loss).

Though I think that such a scenario would probably drop us to the 10 or 11 seed while still probably avoiding Dayton. Of course, that lower seed is what many on here would like in order to avoid the 1 seed in the first two rounds of the NCAAT.

OP is updated, a few very slight seeding changes after reviewing the metrics this morning. No impact to A&M.

I rarely do this but - pulling Saint Louis off the lock line. Their Saturday loss was more damaging than anticipated. I believe they are still pretty firmly in but another bad loss next week with an early exit would make me nervous and could drop their WAB from 40 to ~45.

Moved Virginia Tech back from 68 to 70. I didn't think their loss to Virginia would hurt at all but it did actually move them down in a few metrics, based on that and where Auburn and Indiana are, moving VT back 2 spots and Auburn and Ind up 1 each, Aub re-enters the field at #68.

Fanatic15...Drs2B! said:

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It is just nice that we can enjoy the SECT and not sweat it - even if SC beats Okie Wednesday and then somehow beats us Thursday night (which would be our first and only Quad 3 loss).

Though I think that such a scenario would probably drop us to the 10 or 11 seed while still probably avoiding Dayton. Of course, that lower seed is what many on here would like in order to avoid the 1 seed in the first two rounds of the NCAAT.

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If Scar beats OU and then us that will probably be a Quad 2 loss. They are currently #110 and top 100 is quad 2 on a neutral court. If they win 2 games they likely move up 10 spots

I think we're due for bid stealers in the MAC and MWC, which should hopefully take care of Auburn.

FWIW, DraftKings has taken us off the books for Bubble props, so no longer really considered on the bubble. We were -800 to make the tournament before the LSU game. tu is -380.

Legendary thread! I admire you removing the lock from a team when they lose by 30 to a mid-conference team haha

Small cleanup edit to reflect Santa Clara getting by Pacific.