bobinator said:

---

The bubble out here like Jonestown

---

It's a bloodbath

I can't imagine teams like Stanford, Cal, New Mexico, Virginia Tech could possibly jump us - and especially not enough of them to push us out. Seems like a very high number of bid thieves would be required for us to be out. Going to Dayton seems plausible, but completely being left out just seems unreasonable at this point. I know there's still a chance the committee gets silly though.

The thing that could still torpedo us is losing that 9/16 game. Why we need to stay clear of it.

Are there still scenario(s) where we fall to the 9 seed? Playing around with it here and can't find it: https://bball.notnothing.net/sec.php?sport=mbb

Edit: Okay I needed to change Georgia to a L. So Auburn, Kentucky, Miss St, Texas all win in addition to us losing would put us at 9.

Yeah, there's one, but Georgia winning would eliminate it.

A few more updates to reflect TCU now a lock, Cincy at large hopes pretty much dead.

NC State falls to the last 4 in. The top 65 in feel pretty safe to me at this point barring bid stealers. Santa Clara, Auburn, Indiana, New Mexico all have a chance in the next day or 2 to get massive wins to get up into that group and make teams like Missouri, NC State and losers of tonights bubble games feel less safe.

bobinator said:

---

Yeah, there's one, but Georgia winning would eliminate it.

---

Are we fighting with UGA for a bubble spot?

Nah, Georgia is probably a lock at this point

Method Man said:

---

bobinator said:

---

Yeah, there's one, but Georgia winning would eliminate it.

---

Are we fighting with UGA for a bubble spot?

---

Georgia already a lock, even if they lost this one given how weak the bubble is and their #29 WAB. There is plenty of room for both of us.

St Louis currently down big to George Mason. Not the Atlantic 10 tournament so won't affect the bubble, but showing they are definitely beatable in their league.

Watch for a potential bid stealer coming out of the A-10.

VCU could help there

Is there really no chance St Louis could fall out even if obliterated by George Mason and then losing the 1st round of the A10 tourney vs a 8/9 seed?

bobinator said:

---

The thing that could still torpedo us is losing that 9/16 game. Why we need to stay clear of it.

---

And now Florida murdering Kentucky to put that to bed.

Nah. Bubble is just way too soft

Georgia might end it first

With Georgia and Florida wins nearly locked up, getting more certain that with a win against LSU we'd be the 6 seed playing either Auburn, OU, or South Carolina. Then Arkansas.

Georgia closes it out so the 9 seed is off the table

bobinator said:

---

Georgia closes it out so the 9 seed is off the table

---

Florida still has to win according to Luke's chart, right?

No, we do still want Florida to win but the 9 is off the table with the Georgia win

bobinator said:

---

No, we do still want Florida to win but the 9 is off the table with the Georgia win

---

Yeah I just saw his updated chart. Good!

Gigemags382 said:

---

With Georgia and Florida wins nearly locked up, getting more certain that with a win against LSU we'd be the 6 seed playing either Auburn, OU, or South Carolina. Then Arkansas.

---

If we fafo at LSU what is the tiebreaker for SEC tourney?
Would be 4 or 5 team tie at 10-8. We beat 2, lost 1, and split with t.U.

Was today so bad for everyone that OU is back in the mix if they win this? Surely not right?

bobinator said:

---

Was today so bad for everyone that OU is back in the mix if they win this? Surely not right?

---

Yeah that sounded like some marketing with that comment.

II didn't even hear a comment just trying to predict the numbers. Some teams took some BRUTAL losses today.

I still think they're too far gone without some kind of miracle run next week

With all the bubble losses, we may be at risk of being a 9 seed, which id love to avoid.

Captn_Ag05 said:

---

With all the bubble losses, we may be at risk of being a 9 seed, which id love to avoid.

---

My guess right now is 9.

OP has been updated

1) Phew - still trying to get my heart rate to normal after the LSU game. Just win. Love you Agee. I have moved A&M to lock status. Particularly with how bad the rest of the bubble was, there is no scenario where A&M is not in the tournament.

2) Also moving to lock is TCU, Utah State and Ohio State. Several bracketoligst will hold off on moving OSU there but the numbers are what they are. They are too solid for them to be in any real danger. I have A&M as a solid 9 and closer to an 8 than a 10.

3) Eliminating USC after getting blown out at home tonight.

4) Man what a brutal day for the last 4 in / first 4 out. just about everyone lost. Virginia Tech was #70, lost and is now in the field. Teams that it looked like took a devastating loss are still only a spot or 2 from being in. Teams way off the bubble like Stanford and Oklahoma are absolutely in striking distance now (see Bobinator - i told you!)


Seeds may still be tweaked up or down a spot or 2 based on how much movement there is in the various metrics tomorrow morning.

If Stanford gets in they should cancel the First Four.

bobinator said:

---

If Stanford gets in they should cancel the First Four.

---

What makes you say that? Was it their home loss to Notre Dame where they only scored 40 points? No? hmmm the home loss to UNLV? still no? oh i see...it must have been the home loss to Seattle U...ok ya that makes sense now.

Seriously this is the level of bubble contender we are talking about this year. Big gap imo between the top 64-66 and the bubble contenders behind them.

bobinator said:

---

If Stanford gets in they should cancel the First Four.

---

That resume is gross

Minor updates based on Saturday late night action and updating the next up for each team for what the tournament path looks like.

Good night all!