In the last 2 years LUV has grown their revenue by 9.2%. In the same time UAL has grown their revenue 23.78%. For LUV Q2 2024 EPS were 16% higher than Q2 2022. For UAL Q2 2024 EPS were 47.3% higher than Q2 2022. In the same time. DEL has grown their revenue 20.5% and EPS 57%.

Ah ****, my bad. Don't see how I missed that.

No worries at all. BA actually owes UAL more planes than LUV. So the BA issue is causing a drag on earnings but UAL seems to have figured out the secret sauce to get by until things return to normal. LUV hasn't and the cracks are starting to show.

Bayou City said:

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They posted a loss in Q1 2024 and likely again in Q3 2024. No other major US legacy carrier is expected to post a quarterly loss in Q3 of 2024. Only LUV. That'll be 4 out of the last 8 quarters they post - eps

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Just out of curiosity (I don't follow the P&L of the airline industry) - have any of their losses been tied to the Christmas meltdown? That was in 2022, but weren't they fined pretty heavily for that? Just wondering if some of the losses associated with that were deferred.

At least where I am, UAL ticket prices are up significantly this year. I haven't done a direct comparison, but I wonder if their increases were ahead of their competitors - it seems like SW is just now catching up on their fare increases (these are just anecdotal observations).

Luv is the highest fare of the major carriers a majority of the time for us and UAL is the cheapest. No we aren't by a hub for either.

No.

Fare's aren't increasing across major carriers. They are actually decreasing due to oversupply of routes.

I don't doubt you because you've obviously done a deep dive into this, but that's not at all what I'm seeing out of IAH and HOU. That's why I said "anecdotally".

Several of the routes I'm flying this year are the same ones I've flown for the past several years (at around the same travel dates) and fares are up significantly. And this is across multiple carriers (UA, WestJet, AA, and SW).

One route on AA (IAH to PHL to BGR) went up from $400-ish to $700-ish in two years.

Route from IAH to YYC is up from $300-ish to $575 (that's on WestJet; UA was significantly more expensive).

A third flight on SW from HOU to JAN is double what I paid a little over a year ago.

IAH to EWR is up from $600-ish last year to over $700-$800 around Thanksgiving (that's always an expensive ticket, but even more so this year). I just had to buy a one way from EWR to IAH, and it was almost as much as a round trip.

I'm sure there are deals to be found if your travel dates are "flexible", but let's face it - most people want to travel around weekends and holidays.

I am also one of those people who will fly on Thanksgiving Day and Christmas Day - those tickets this year are not discounted, and in some cases are much more expensive (both on SW and UA). I'm also seeing Thursday and Monday tickets priced at a premium like weekend fares (particularly on SW).

SWA opened their calendar through April 7, 2025. No word on assigned seating.

And flights to anywhere for Spring Break are insane.

The CEO is involved in a proxy fight with an activist investor so he is just saying anything he can to keep his job. Zero chance they make any progress for this change until that threat is gone (either because the investor moves on or the CEO gets replaced)

Seeing posts about people excited about charging ports slowly showing up in the SWA fleet. Imagine that being what gets you excited in 2024