The Debt said:

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What spin I'm seeing from the Ds is that inflation is hurting every country right now. And 9.1% is comparatively low.

I don't know how thats a comfort for the average working family. They arent benefiting from the relative purchasinng power, or if they are its spending $4.90/gal instead of $5.10/gal. It's still 2x the price from 2 years ago.

America is in a good position to weather the 2022-2024 bad times, but it seems this administration is hellbent on slow playing our recovery.

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My company contributes to the PPI (like many companies do). We primarily distribute food products and other general merchandise and light equipment products related to supplying restaurants and convenience stores. Do you want to know their methodology? They wanted the top unit volume item from each of our product categories (we have 10). They just wanted monthly pricing on each top item. What we buy it for and what we sell it for.

I offered to give them the data by a more granular level like product family (about 55) or product class (about 700). They said that was too much data and to just keep it simple. ONLY the highest volume item in each category. Well those products are actually the stickiest priced products, because they're the highest volume and those are what customers pay attention to the most on an invoice. For us, even those products showed 12% increases. We just had a supplier that provides 4 of those 10 products announce another 15% increase.

9.1% CPI is a lie and so is the 11.3% PPI. I tried sending them our entire basket of goods with volumes to show a weighted PPI number for us by category and they rejected it saying it wasn't in the right format and they only needed the one item data from us. They almost seem annoyed. A weighted approach shows over 24% core inflation in our industry.

They have their fingers in their ears about the real numbers. Garbage in, garbage out.

Has OP gotten in touch with the administration to let them know the Inflation Reduction Act isn't necessary?

Has there ever been a worse take on this board than the OP?

TITLE
Fed tackles inflation with its most diverse leadership ever

QUOTE
"Leadership at the Federal Reserve has become its most diverse ever. There are more female, Black and gay officials contributing to the central bank's interest-rate decisions than at any time in its 109-year history."

LINK
https://apnews.com/article/inflation-united-states-jackson-wyoming-economy-935581a0036858b89bcb2ca6c72b498d


Inflation is our strength.

Redstone said:

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"Leadership at the Federal Reserve has become its most diverse ever. There are more female, Black and gay officials contributing to the central bank's interest-rate decisions than at any time in its 109-year history."

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Please make it stop

Mr. AGSPRT04 said:

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Redstone said:

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"Leadership at the Federal Reserve has become its most diverse ever. There are more female, Black and gay officials contributing to the central bank's interest-rate decisions than at any time in its 109-year history."

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Please make it stop

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We don't care about your color and we damn sure don't care about your sexuality! What we care about, is your intelligence and your ability to make good decisions regarding monetary policy. Clearly, that seems to be an area of weakness, which leads me to believe we need someone else making these decisions.

SteveBott said:

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I've followed inflation since I got into mortgage in 2002. It directly affects my business. We have not had significant inflation since then even after 2008-9 QE and stimulus. This will be the same.

And the same nervous nellies are out like they were then

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OP (OldAg2020) and SteveBott be gettin a lifelong dose of humbleness by now.

Oldag2020 said:

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Demand is temporarily outpacing our production(supply). Due to covid shut downs and supply chain disruptions. Ex. Lumber prices were inflated, now they are correcting themselves.

Once our supply chains are back up to full capacity, the added demand created by the stimulus will not cause long lasting inflation.

Our productive capacity is so high, in fact, I believe our biggest fear should be deflation, not inflation. Our productivity growth is not disappearing any time soon. The inputs to production are 1. Technological advancements and 2. Increase in labor force. Our computing power doubles every 18 months. Clearly this growth will not disappear.

It's no accident that we have continued to spend more and more throughout the last several decades with little to zero long term negative consequences.

In fact, the fed has struggled the last decade to maintain their inflation level goal of 2%. This even Despite massive spending in 2008 and artificially low interest rates.


Another reason we should not be concerned by the massive spending is that $1 in government spending = greater than $1 in gdp growth.
Gdp growth = 1/ the propensity to save
The propensity to save is currently ~ 20%
Therefore every dollar spent today grows our gdp tomorrow by $5

This $5 of gdp growth then increases tax revenue by $5.
This increase in tax revenue is used to service the debt.

Basically, we can spend as much as we want with little to zero negative consequences. Long term inflation is not on the way.

Be sure to allocate portfolios accordingly.

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Sometimes I just need a good laugh during the day and revisit this....


Labor force increasing: check
Computational beep bop boop doubling drivel: check
Money tree theory without harm: check

Quote:

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Another reason we should not be concerned by the massive spending is that $1 in government spending = greater than $1 in gdp growth.
Gdp growth = 1/ the propensity to save
The propensity to save is currently ~ 20%
Therefore every dollar spent today grows our gdp tomorrow by $5

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This is just the biggest bunch of BS ever. Its hardly worth debating, but here goes:

In order to spend $1 the government either has to tax $1 or create the dollar in debt. Either way, it gets it from the private sector -- it takes from the economy by taking the dollar out of the economy or crowds out by raising debt that would otherwise be raised in another way. Sure, at least up until now, government debt is considered more secure than other debt, but it also has much lower rates of return. And the rates of return of taxation is far lower -- like negative -- compared to what would be invested. So coming up with the future GDP increase of $5 is not only laughable, it is demonstrably false. If anything, it is negative $5.

The spending the government does is usually far less efficient than that done in the private sector. $1 spent is a dollar spent you say? Hardly. Private sector spending includes business spending which, by definition includes bank lending and the money multiplier effect. That doesn't happen with government spending. So GDP growth, even if it isn't negative with more govt. spending, is far lower than it would be if the funds stayed in the private sector.

Again, this really isn't arguable. The keyensean models clearly ignore where government money comes from in the first place.

1. There is no inflation
2. There is inflation, but it's transitory
3. Inflation is good for you
4. There is no recession
5. Recession is good for you 🤡 pic.twitter.com/yLqynM8yOY

— Dr. Eli David (@DrEliDavid) September 29, 2022

Quote:

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$1 in government spending = greater than $1 in gdp growth.

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What strikes me about this comment, is that we all know this is very difficult to accomplish in private industry...where corporations are trying to maximize every ounce of revenue.

The Government gives so much away, subsidizes so many functions, and adds layers upon layers of cost...it's as close to an impossibility as you can get.

If it was that simple, we'd have endless wealth created into perpetuity. But if you have endless wealth, and the supply of money is simply grown continually by spending...you devalue your money (ie, what happens when you print more). This of course would create.....inflation.....the very thing the comment claims govt spending solves.

evan_aggie said:

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Bunch of idiot genZ (or maybe Millenial like me '83) that don't know their ass from their brain.

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Millennial here. I blame the Boomers for allowing universities (yes, even Texas A&M) to be filled with professors pushing garbage like modern monetary theory. Brainwash the future to believe that stuff and they will.

evan_aggie said:

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SteveBott said:

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I've followed inflation since I got into mortgage in 2002. It directly affects my business. We have not had significant inflation since then even after 2008-9 QE and stimulus. This will be the same.

And the same nervous nellies are out like they were then

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Funny thing: it probably still hasn't and won't impact your business/job.

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I bet his job is a dumpster fire now. Everyone I know in that business is flailing