QUESTION: Anyone that purchases food, energy sources, and various material possessions has noticed massive inflation. Or have they? I need to know.
Can anyone deny this?
Can anyone deny this?
The reason we should not be concerned about inflation
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Last: 1 mo ago by Redstone
mazag08 said:
Crickets in here.
Are there not any more 23 year olds who think the FED can beat thousands of years of economics, history, and human nature?
Amazing question. It is my also my second one of the night!
My gas and grocery bills are getting pretty high. Can OP please let me know when this transitory inflation is going to end?
I am your completely average Joe who doesn't understand economics on the scale y'all are discussing here.
My consumer goods bill is up across the board and no can deny it at this point. I'll let y'all argue the how's and why's. I just know I am paying more and I hate it. Everything from fuel to the same food I've been eating for years and even my f'ing cat litter went up 20% overnight.
Just a small person's data point.
Carry on!
My consumer goods bill is up across the board and no can deny it at this point. I'll let y'all argue the how's and why's. I just know I am paying more and I hate it. Everything from fuel to the same food I've been eating for years and even my f'ing cat litter went up 20% overnight.
Just a small person's data point.
Carry on!
I don't fault the OP here - it usually takes a while for a newly-minted Mays grad to realize their degree is worthless, but quicker the better!mazag08 said:
Crickets in here.
Are there not any more 23 year olds who think the FED can beat thousands of years of economics, history, and human nature?
We did a small order of staples from Shipt in SA last night. Our shopper started shopping and immediately started sending pics of bare shelves/alternatives where possible. We had several items we didn't get because no alternatives.
Remember, this is just the beginning and the probability is it will get much much worse before it gets better.
Remember, this is just the beginning and the probability is it will get much much worse before it gets better.
Not worthless. Just not a substitute for experience.RockOn said:I don't fault the OP here - it usually takes a while for a newly-minted Mays grad to realize their degree is worthless, but quicker the better!mazag08 said:
Crickets in here.
Are there not any more 23 year olds who think the FED can beat thousands of years of economics, history, and human nature?
I don't think Mays is the problem.. unless that's where he learned the idiocy that the FED has won and can do no wrong.RockOn said:I don't fault the OP here - it usually takes a while for a newly-minted Mays grad to realize their degree is worthless, but quicker the better!mazag08 said:
Crickets in here.
Are there not any more 23 year olds who think the FED can beat thousands of years of economics, history, and human nature?
The FED historically follows the market. They are more useless than wings on a duck.
In fairness the inflation crybabies have been wrong for decades
lmao this thread delivers, good job op /s
It helps when inflation starts to rear its head…. and the government changes how they measure it.
If the FED was so great at it all these years, then why are they failing now?ifeelold said:
In fairness the inflation crybabies have been wrong for decades
And what happened to your previous username? Banned again so soon?
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Guys I think you should leave the OP alone. He had an opinion and that turned out to be wrong. He's young and still learning. It's not like he was an ass and made >75 posts arguing his opinion during one week and spammed multiple TA boards with them.
Depends on what your definition of "is" is.
Commodity price changes over the last year...
— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) January 12, 2022
Coffee: +95%
Lumber: +91%
Heating Oil: +61%
Natural Gas: +54%
WTI Crude: +53%
Gasoline: +52%
Aluminum: +49%
Brent Crude +48%
Cotton: +42%
Copper: +23%
Sugar: +17%
Corn: +16%
Wheat: +16%
CPI: +7%
Gold: -1%
Soybeans: -2%
Silver: -10%
SteveBott said:
I've followed inflation since I got into mortgage in 2002. It directly affects my business. We have not had significant inflation since then even after 2008-9 QE and stimulus. This will be the same.
And the same nervous nellies are out like they were then
Funny thing: it probably still hasn't and won't impact your business/job.
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AG
Not off to a good start in the 2022 prediction either.Oldag2020 said:
Unfortunately, I no longer believe inflation is transitory. I do think it will decrease to around 3%, and may even turn deflationary at the end of 2022, but will quickly reverse and remain in the 3-4% range over the next decade.
inflation protection, for example - TIPS, real estate, stocks(hopefully) will provide protection for those living off the income in their portfolios. Anyone with long time horizons not living off income from their portfolio will likely survive
Looks like my golf swing today.
Does the OP work for Bernie Sanders in Vermont?
Didn't read this thread but the title alone made me spit out my coffee.
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aggiedaniel06 said:
Didn't read this thread but the title alone made me spit out my coffee.
When aggiedaniel speaks, us Stock trading thread followers listen.
Listen listen...by the end of 2023 we'll be back to 2.8-3.2%. That's what he meant by temporary.
I love the fact that CA is getting hammered by near $5 gas. Sucks that we are up to $3 and my brisket is $5 a lb.
I love the fact that CA is getting hammered by near $5 gas. Sucks that we are up to $3 and my brisket is $5 a lb.
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evan_aggie said:
Listen listen...by the end of 2023 we'll be back to 2.8-3.2%. That's what he meant by temporary.
I love the fact that CA is getting hammered by near $5 gas. Sucks that we are up to $3 and my brisket is $5 a lb.
Where the hell are you finding $5/lbs brisket? Was at Costco and it was $7 for just certified. I didn't buy cause I've got a couple frozen briskets but I was in pain seeing the prices. Paid $8.99/lbs for some NY strips. Maybe I'm doing it wrong….
Yeah you're buying meat. Our elite have told us that meat is unnecessary. Being outpriced is just doing our part comrade.
Huh? Costco and HEB were both about $4.89-$5.00/lb untrimmed. Trimmed might me $7+
No way actual inflation gets down to 2.8-3.2% by end of 2023. The government numbers may say it, but actual real world inflation will be much higher. Just like real world inflation is much higher than the 7.5% they are reporting right now.
*note- I was being sarcastic "listen listen".
It is interesting: they don't count new rent prices or home prices bc 90% of the population isn't churning on a new lease or buying at new prices.
But they are expecting a 1% impact by the end of this year and I think next too. So I wouldn't be surprised if it is closer to 4% (using their CPI calc).
It is interesting: they don't count new rent prices or home prices bc 90% of the population isn't churning on a new lease or buying at new prices.
But they are expecting a 1% impact by the end of this year and I think next too. So I wouldn't be surprised if it is closer to 4% (using their CPI calc).
21st straight month of MoM (non-transitory) increases in consumer prices?
This seems bad.
This seems bad.
Just want this on record for future review that Goldman Sachs thinks inflation will drop to 3.3% by 4Q 2022.
Same company was "surprised by inflation" in 2021 and was predicting inflation of 2.5% in 1Q 2022 (right now) as late as 4Q 2021.
Same company was "surprised by inflation" in 2021 and was predicting inflation of 2.5% in 1Q 2022 (right now) as late as 4Q 2021.
That isn't too much of a stretch because the 3.3% increase is year over year - above the already inflated prices of 4Q2021.
100 percent or more inflation on many items/ supplies in the last 18 months. Gas, diesel, all lumber products, lumber, steel, most metals, fertilizer. Just to name a few I'm familiar with.
Thought experiment: What if prices are not really "going up," but instead our dollar is getting smaller?
Oldag2020 said:
Demand is temporarily outpacing our production(supply). Due to covid shut downs and supply chain disruptions. Ex. Lumber prices were inflated, now they are correcting themselves.
Once our supply chains are back up to full capacity, the added demand created by the stimulus will not cause long lasting inflation.
Our productive capacity is so high, in fact, I believe our biggest fear should be deflation, not inflation. Our productivity growth is not disappearing any time soon. The inputs to production are 1. Technological advancements and 2. Increase in labor force. Our computing power doubles every 18 months. Clearly this growth will not disappear.
It's no accident that we have continued to spend more and more throughout the last several decades with little to zero long term negative consequences.
In fact, the fed has struggled the last decade to maintain their inflation level goal of 2%. This even Despite massive spending in 2008 and artificially low interest rates.
Another reason we should not be concerned by the massive spending is that $1 in government spending = greater than $1 in gdp growth.
Gdp growth = 1/ the propensity to save
The propensity to save is currently ~ 20%
Therefore every dollar spent today grows our gdp tomorrow by $5
This $5 of gdp growth then increases tax revenue by $5.
This increase in tax revenue is used to service the debt.
Basically, we can spend as much as we want with little to zero negative consequences. Long term inflation is not on the way.
Be sure to allocate portfolios accordingly.
how are those supply chains doing now? Covid has been over for months now,
and yet inflation is getting WORSE!
and the effects from the Russian invasion have not even started.
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