Woods Ag said:

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Hey... I"m buying!

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Heineken-Ashi said:

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and Powell himself has been the single biggest seller over the last 6 months.

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This part is irrelevant. He's about 87 with an insane amount of money living on his ranch. I would put zero stock into his trades. He's not doing it because of the outlook of the company.

Wow tech investors fleeing to safety in WWR

Me trying to buy the SOXL dip...

Heineken-Ashi said:

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WWR now has a setup to fall to 65 cents. If you feel like you have considerable risk and cant stomach a drop back to that level, now is the time to lessen.

Please understand, I'm not saying what's going to happen. I'm saying it is now setup in standard form for that to happen. We are as overbought on hourly candles as we were on the 24th, and price isn't even close to a new high. This is bearish short term more times than its not.

I personally went net free just under $1 a week ago. I will be buying back ALL my shares if we get below 75 cents. And if it can hold in that range around 65 cents and start a constructive move up, I might even 2x my original position.

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Sold half of the shares I bought at $0.50 to go net free on those. Still have some with a much higher basis, but I'm slowly bringing that down.

Should have stuck to my gut and dumped everything into cash after the post-election run-up and lost my password for a few months.

SPY - Been posting and updating this chart for the last month or so.



I've mentioned how this is an ending diagonal of some sort. Ending diagonals only happen, you guessed it, at the end of a pattern. So this isn't something small. This ends the action since August, and when it reverses, will target that low at the very minimum.

As of now, I can't say I have a clear bias on up or one more down (my alt count). Ideally, it would blast off next week and spend the next 2-5 weeks targeting $632-$641. But ending diagonals are sloppy, overlapping, unreliable, treacherous patterns where bulls are increasingly running out of steam on lower and lower volume, yet bears can't quite get a reversal that's meaningful. This leads to the market chopping upward. But it eventually does run out of buyers and the bid falls out.

Please understand, you don't have to have a rush of sellers to see a huge drop in the market. You just have to have a lack of a bid. When that happens, ANY selling will fail to execute until it finally hits a bid, which could be at significantly lower levels. This is what happens in typical gap downs. And it REALLY happens in crashes. But it can also happen over the course of weeks or months, when there's just no significant volume buying and too many not willing to jump in until price is much lower.

Ending diagonals are also notorious for ending all of the sudden and before their expected target. Hence why I'm so hesitant and careful with any long positions right now. There is nothing saying that anything north of where we are has to happen. While the risk is as far down as $500. I'm personally not willing to play for 20-40 points when the market might be 100 points lower by the summer.

But let's zoom out. Because this isn't just ending some sort of new pattern. This is ending the potential for multiple years, even decades of patterns. Lets just go back to the 2022 low.



The upper $641 target is also the trendline target, and the 161.8% extension, of the move off the 2022 lows. That kind of confluence between short term and medium-term targets can tend to be a magnet. This 2-3 year move could ALSO be an ending diagonal, though it's hard to tell because it never overlapped. Non-overlapping diagonals ARE possible, but I don't count them as reliable for playing any sort of reversal. Still, it's possible. And if it IS an ending diagonal, then the reversal would target $350-$410 range within 2-3 years. If it's not, I still think it's likely that the $500 level that I expect to see by late this year is merely the first wave of a bigger correction. The only thing that would change my mind is if it dropped RIGHT NOW to $500. That would actually be the best-case scenario, as getting there without making a new high first would point to a bottom that could lead to $667-$700 as the next move into next year. It would be a healthy drop within the larger structure. No matter what, that $500 range will have to hold once the market approaches it for any chance at future highs.

But let's zoom out again. I've shared this chart before, but this is the long-term pattern off the 2009 low. Remember back to when I mentioned the significance of 161.8% and 261.8% extensions.



While 261.8% comes in near $700, we know that we are in an ending diagonal on the small degree, and potentially a non-overlapping ending diagonal on the medium degree. When a market morphs into diagonals, it means the previous move went "too far too fast". In other words, price stretched so far to the upside before correcting, that there just isn't enough buying left to sustain the impulsive structure. So it morphs into a diagonal and ends up attacking a lower "new high" than what you would have previously expected. So knowing that this is happening, you can lower your expectations of where the top would be. It still might hit the expected upper target. But it most likely won't. Hence again why I'm so on the edge. This shorter-term diagonal could end a 15-year market structure. A simple retrace of this 15-year structure to its minimum retracement level would end up around $350, pretty close to the level the market was at before COVID and massive expansion of the money supply. An expansion that has directly led to the majority of stock gains (there's a reason why M2 and SPX are following the same path). Ultimately, a drop to there is an indication that the money supply is contracting back to where it was before COVID, and with it, asset prices, as leverage gets completely wiped from the system and the dollar gets stronger. And that's just the minimum retracement. In a full retracement, you would see the market back to where it was before the GFC money supply expansion. But it wouldn't likely get that low until the mid to late 2030's. In that case, you're talking about a long-term sustained bear market. There would be years of bulls in between the down moves, but money spent up here would be underwater for decades.

I'm not even going to go back to the 1930's to discuss what would happen if this upcoming top were ending everything since then, as it's pretty much societal financial wipeout, sustained multi-decade depression, most likely world war, and a new global paradigm. It's not worth it, because there's just no way to save yourself.

All in all, the reason I keep posting my SPY chart, is because I don't know exactly which term of the structure is ending. But I know it's at least the shorter term. Not only do I want to protect myself, but I want dry powder should $500 merely be a bottom leading to another year or two of bull. Calling a top is hard, nearly impossible. That's why you see people who try often mocked. They are either perma bear or just early. Sometimes YEARS early. I've been there. I thought 2021 was it and this large-scale fall had started. Top callers who can't pivot when wrong get left behind. As I did at first, before finally jumping on the wagon. But there are times when its just not worth it to chase the last piece of meat on the bone. As the ones who fail to get out will end up holding the bag. The ones who try to buy the dip after the top will be exit liquidity for others and will be holding a bag. I personally see this market as too risky to stay aggressively long in. But I'm not even 50% cash. That's because I'm invested in setups that I believe are probable. Some of them would do really well in a declining market. Some will do well in a strong market. I know where each one will fail and will get out accordingly once those levels break. But again, this market needs a significant correction just to resume a healthy look. There is far more to lose up here, in my opinion, than to gain. And with the reverse repo approaching late 2019 levels, it's getting close to time that a selloff won't have any liquidity to buy it.

All I'm saying is to be careful. Don't over leverage and don't get FOMO. Know when to GTFO. Hopefully I can help with that. When I believe it's time to turn bearish, I will let you know. And I will take my beating if wrong.

And for those that would say "what about Trump?". He cares far too much about the market and his ego to let it drop that far. Well the first thing I would tell you is that it doesn't matter. The market doesn't care who is president. Case in point.. the last 4 years. The second thing I will say, even though I try to avoid narratives, is that did you ever consider that to actually heal this country from the path of financial ruin, and to set it up best for future generations where they can actually afford to buy a home, aren't required to go in debt to do anything, and can have access to opportunities that aren't just available to elite wealthy class.. that the market and money supply falling back to where it was in 2007 is actually the best thing that could happen? Yes, it would be painful. But why? That's because all your money is tied up in assets that would be declining in dollar value as the dollar significantly strengthens for the first time since before the great depression. I've told you before that your asset values have nothing to do with actual money. They are numbers on a screen and are representative of nothing more than derivative leverage tied to a falling dollar. Reverse the dollar, and things don't necessarily lose their utility value. They just lose their inflated value against the dollar. Debt gets crushed. Leverage gets crushed. And even if some assets aren't worth the numbers you are used to seeing on your screen, good ones will be easy to tell as they won't fall as much. And the purchasing power of your cash would dramatically rise. Yes, it's called deflation. And unfortunately, in my opinion, it's the only thing that can fix the long-term sustainability of our country. People cry about it, again, because all of their worth is tied in assets that would be falling in value against the dollar. Our entire history has been kicking the can. That's because we allowed our currency to be overtaken by an unelected central bank. But the people on the bottom.. their cash gets stronger every day during deflation and more opportunities become available to them. During deflation, the richest and most powerful are who will cry the most. Because they can never imagine a scenario where they are the ones getting hurt the most. The system has never delivered a scenario where they don't make out like bandits. So it just can't happen, right?

Whether Trump would know all this and be aiming for it, I don't know. I doubt it. But some of the significant cuts he wants to perform? Ya, they would lead to deflation. And he's likely begging the FED to resort to QE so he can refinance the bulk of the debt at low short-term rates. But QE is nothing more than the FED making more loans available to the system. You need demand for loans for it to actually work. Without that demand, QE will actually just lead to an increasingly cascading deflation.

Didn't mean to write this much. So going to stop now. I don't like narratives as I can tend to lean on them. I want to stay nimble and open to whatever this market delivers. Ultimate take away.. whether we are topping soon or in a year.. please be careful and manage your risk. I care about you all too much to see everything you worked hard for wiped out. Good luck all. Let's see what next week brings.

I pray that I'm wrong and that Trump can find a way to truly set us on a healthy path forward without having to first go backwards.

Trust me, there is nobody who wouldn't be affected by widescale deflation. I know for a fact my life would be a struggle in that environment. It would be extremely painful. But I look at my kids and wonder.. "wouldn't it be nice if they entered the workforce at a time when the median income could afford a starter home? Where they take home more of their money and exist within a government not controlled by bankers and foreign interest? I wish there was a way to get there that didn't require the majority having to sacrifice and endure very painful times. I just don't see it. The time to fix things was 2008. But instead of fixing, or even patching, they just moved everybody from one sinking boat to a much larger boat with a glass bottom.