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24,937,506 Views | 233714 Replies | Last: 17 hrs ago by jamey
bhanacik
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AG
I just bought some Jan 2 calls on FUBO for .14

still holding shares as well
Brian Earl Spilner
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AG
Screw it. I am out of SMCI. Cut my losses.
Heineken-Ashi
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Don't want to see FUBO much lower. Chop chop as of now though. Can it hang on is this question.
aggies4life
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AG


Anyone know if this guy is credible?
El Chupacabra
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I'm pretty sure my SMCI covered calls will not be assigned today at 50.
Gaeilge
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aggies4life said:



Anyone know if this guy is credible?
He is an options trader with a following. Says some off the wall ****, but has been correct on some of these news drops, but not all.
Chef Elko
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tailgatetimer10 said:

I mentioned this a year ago on this thread but just let it be because I don't know all of scmi business. I don't want to spam the thread when someone else could see something differently.

Reference of why: https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2021-supermicro/
This was the first time I heard of SMCI and the news lead to me starting a position after they tanked 50% in 2018. The company has had multiple controversies, but still seems to stick around and their industry is currently red hot. The opportunity is certainly there for those bold enough.
El_duderino
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What the heck got into POWL?
Heineken-Ashi
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Hey, if you want to risk your money, sentiment is most extreme at tops and bottoms. But tops and bottoms can also extend beyond what seems reasonable. There's really no stop. So I say, wait for the low to form and an impulsive move off of it. Then you will have a stop level to manage risk and can lay out targets. Trying to buy a bottom, even when it works, is going to be a headache more times than not.
Pignorant
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Heineken-Ashi
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Yesterday DIA (Dow Jones ETF), which I posted about last Friday and follows up earlier this week, made a new low. It actually provided a clean 5th wave low for the bearish setup. I'm now eyeing the put trade and will run some numbers to see if its worth forming a starter position today. As of now, it should take into early next week to form. But you never know.
harge57
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Brian Earl Spilner said:

Screw it. I am out of SMCI. Cut my losses.


It sucks but think of it this way. Show me one company who has had it's auditor resign only to turn it around and turn into a solid company. For every example you find I could probably find 100 examples of bankruptcy after the auditor resigns.
spud1910
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Here is a thread that I follow. Some good info there.

https://texags.com/forums/57/topics/3181130
Brewmaster
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Brian Earl Spilner said:

Screw it. I am out of SMCI. Cut my losses.
sorry to those that got stuck in it. there will be much better plays coming.

I just realized I dodged a bullet, checked my account - I didn't have any shares, got stopped out on Oct 22nd!
Heineken-Ashi
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Brewmaster said:

Brian Earl Spilner said:

Screw it. I am out of SMCI. Cut my losses.
sorry to those that got stuck in it. there will be much better plays coming.

I just realized I dodged a bullet, checked my account - I didn't have any shares, got stopped out on Oct 22nd!
Chef Elko
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Gaeilge said:

aggies4life said:



Anyone know if this guy is credible?
He is an options trader with a following. Says some off the wall ****, but has been correct on some of these news drops, but not all.
The rise - fall - rise of CVNA has baffled me! What has allowed them to run so much more then say a CarMax? CVNA has a $50B market cap vs KMX of $10B. TDA/Vroom is also completely worthless now.

Small real estate footprint and overhead? They run a slim operation of buying cars off lease and flipping them? Low balling trade ins and sending them to auction?
Heineken-Ashi
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Chef Elko said:

Gaeilge said:

aggies4life said:



Anyone know if this guy is credible?
He is an options trader with a following. Says some off the wall ****, but has been correct on some of these news drops, but not all.
The rise - fall - rise of CVNA has baffled me! What has allowed them to run so much more then say a CarMax? CVNA has a $50B market cap vs KMX of $10B. TDA/Vroom is also completely worthless now.

Small real estate footprint and overhead? They run a slim operation of buying cars off lease and flipping them? Low balling trade ins and sending them to auction?
Understanding sentiment means also understanding mania

El_duderino
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Long dated puts wouldn't be a bad thing
Heineken-Ashi
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El_duderino said:

Long dated puts wouldn't be a bad thing
Mania can extend. Buying puts before a potential top is in place can destroy value quickly. I know it's tempting, and a big drop would make you say "see! Should have bought puts!", but I like to focus on high probability setups. Guessing on reversals is not that.

I bought Nov puts on XLF in May. They are going to finish at $0 in a couple weeks unless we have a meltdown around the election. Why did I buy them? Because I thought it topped. It kept extending.. FAR beyond what I thought was reasonable. Can't even fashion a high probability count that makes sense of the move. Does it matter? No. I gambled on a reversal and lost $2k. Lesson learned. AGAIN.
El_duderino
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Exactly. Once reversal is confirmed. I've learned that lesson the hard way as well
WestTexasAg
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Brian Earl Spilner said:

Screw it. I am out of SMCI. Cut my losses.
Same
CheladaAg
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Here's an insightful thread regarding the SMCI fiasco. This may go along with any Chinese run company.

Chef Elko
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Very interesting! I've seen the "keeping two books" thing from my commercial lending days, albeit not massive public companies. It's funny how he states "obedience to obscure laws" didn't make their list of ethics, yet they are oppressed by their government and can't break out of it.
Heineken-Ashi
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Bought March 2025 SLV $32's
El Chupacabra
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Anyone have an opinion on NTR?
Gaeilge
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El Chupacabra said:

Anyone have an opinion on NTR?
One of the top 5 airports I've ever had to fly through.
Heineken-Ashi
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El Chupacabra said:

Anyone have an opinion on NTR?


aggies4life
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AG
El_duderino
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Looks like NVDA popped around 3% on the news
aggies4life
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Yep! I'm in nvdl
MAS444
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AG
Wrong thread.
bmoochie
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Heineken-Ashi said:

El_duderino said:

Long dated puts wouldn't be a bad thing
Mania can extend. Buying puts before a potential top is in place can destroy value quickly. I know it's tempting, and a big drop would make you say "see! Should have bought puts!", but I like to focus on high probability setups. Guessing on reversals is not that.

I bought Nov puts on XLF in May. They are going to finish at $0 in a couple weeks unless we have a meltdown around the election. Why did I buy them? Because I thought it topped. It kept extending.. FAR beyond what I thought was reasonable. Can't even fashion a high probability count that makes sense of the move. Does it matter? No. I gambled on a reversal and lost $2k. Lesson learned. AGAIN.


Sounds like cava for me
ReturnOfTheAg
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Sold out of CAVA back at $120 thinking it topped out.

Baffled that's it's kept rising
Brian Earl Spilner
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Huge week coming up. I feel like we rally after Tuesday but it's really hard to say what happens. I almost feel like the result of the election won't matter much in the end, although I think the initial spike will be bigger if GOP wins.

(Not endorsing either candidate here and not looking to make this a political discussion.)
CC09LawAg
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I will be shocked if we know anything with any certainty for either candidate after the election.

I think it's going to be a long, dragged out process either way it goes.
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