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Heineken-Ashi
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In reply to I bleed maroon • 9:37a, 9/25/24
  • Silver: I hold SLV call options, well in the money - HOLD
  • Gold: GLD is a long term hold - HOLD, SAND is a speculative call position, well in the money - Gold move up is slowing momentum after far outperforming most of the year. Maybe get yourself risk free here and hold the rest as it continues to push up.
  • Copper: FCX: Long term hold, but my covered calls may be in play. Exit, or roll? I wouldnt roll. Maybe buy another batch of shares with a reasonable stop so if you get called you are still in. Copper and silver moving up should pull this one upward. I sell calls in ranging markets. These markets are potentially breaking out. Could also sell puts.
  • Steel: CLF: Dec Calls, decently in the money - I'm bearish steel. Would not let profit turn to loss here.
  • Platinum: IMPUY - decent gain at this point. - Platinum not as decisive as silver and copper thus far. No guidance here.
  • Uranium: Not really a metal, but I had the right idea at the wrong time, UEC. Speculative calls down over 50% - Might as well hold and hope the bull for uranium is real.
  • Mix: RIO is in most of the above. Recent buy write, up slightly - No guidance.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
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I bleed maroon
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In reply to Heineken-Ashi • 9:44a, 9/25/24
AG
Thanks, my friend!

Already risk free on Gold. Gonna ride it out, selling the SAND options bit by bit. I will investigate the writing puts idea on FCX - good thinking! Yeah - I'm kind of bearish on steel, too, but this originally was a leveraged play toward building a position to take advantage of Trump tariff rumors if the election goes that way. Probably best to just take the gains, though.
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idAg09
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9:48a, 9/25/24
We still hanging on to X until we hear more about the sale deal? Cut if it goes under $30?
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Heineken-Ashi
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9:56a, 9/25/24
DVN. Great R/R here. Buy with stop at recent low around $39. Target $47-$55
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
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Hunter_812
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10:10a, 9/25/24
AG
Went ahead and took my profits on POWL. Thanks Prog!
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fauxstradamus
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In reply to Heineken-Ashi • 10:17a, 9/25/24
AG
Heineken-Ashi said:
DVN. Great R/R here. Buy with stop at recent low around $39. Target $47-$55
I thought you had turned pretty bearish on oil/energy?
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MavsAg
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In reply to HoustonAg2014 • 10:38a, 9/25/24
AG
HoustonAg2014 said:
Y'all are awesome and I'll try that!
Where do I get that onsie for my son?
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AgShaun00
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In reply to I bleed maroon • 10:39a, 9/25/24
AG
I bleed maroon said:
In an effort to get the thread back on track from the cute kid derail, during an active trading day...

I'm heavier than I realized on metals. Given the general runup the past few weeks, which are buy/hold/sell in the board's opinion:

  • Silver: I hold SLV call options, well in the money
  • Gold: GLD is a long term hold, SAND is a speculative call position, well in the money
  • Copper: FCX: Long term hold, but my covered calls may be in play. Exit, or roll?
  • Steel: CLF: Dec Calls, decently in the money
  • Platinum: IMPUY - decent gain at this point.
  • Uranium: Not really a metal, but I had the right idea at the wrong time, UEC. Speculative calls down over 50%
  • Mix: RIO is in most of the above. Recent buy write, up slightly

Thoughts?
copper is an uptrend. 5.15 on copper was last high and 4.7 got some resistence. I would bet there for cc first. Nov-Dec is usually a rally in metals and if we get another rate drop that could push it. my 2 cents.


I only have a few hundred thousand pounds of copper to buy for my company in wire, and wish I did at 3.9. I am going to hold off now before I do, but it is getting riskier. I am waiting on a few jobs that could push it to million pounds.

MIssed the steel call. I know in my business steel is softening and I don't hear any chatter of price increases coming so take for what it is worth.
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Heineken-Ashi
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In reply to fauxstradamus • 10:41a, 9/25/24
fauxstradamus said:
Heineken-Ashi said:
DVN. Great R/R here. Buy with stop at recent low around $39. Target $47-$55
I thought you had turned pretty bearish on oil/energy?
I'm not exactly bullish.. short term. But we're talking about a $1 stop loss risk to reward of $7-$15 or having a potentially low basis on a long term play.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
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HoustonAg2014
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In reply to MavsAg • 10:46a, 9/25/24
AG
https://www.googleadservices.com/pagead/aclk?sa=L&ai=DChcSEwj_kdOtuN6IAxXHR38AHUe0AGMYABAGGgJvYQ&ae=2&co=1&gclid=CjwKCAjw6c63BhAiEiwAF0EH1Ns4OVh_6zGsU86leZBPfI2NDUnJEwkGvoXkTg9hy0ywBQ0iwg9VixoC8SEQAvD_BwE&sph=&ohost=www.google.com&cid=CAESeeD29Hnx8mpoeXjjj3Fr_lsQa1FhwSrfimz_9ZcFPJhDECN8Y5YvYQfw-gsC0MDeQzzlm1AAzppK1aLHogOeBPG0oDWLn7aEOBczROX4i3rkoO-ia9JmobH_xpZpWdFYPtxgjMMRVNk9kRNHec-QK7WZGuHDUKsJzrM&sig=AOD64_1pw-O1CaxJGnDCykoP3Cj1nhxzlQ&ctype=70&q=&ved=2ahUKEwjGz86tuN6IAxXgM9AFHQxHLsoQwg8oAHoECAcQDA&nis=8&dct=1&suid=23211979919&adurl=
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ProgN
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In reply to Heineken-Ashi • 10:59a, 9/25/24
Heineken-Ashi said:


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Heineken-Ashi
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11:14a, 9/25/24
I'm probably going to play the 2007 SPY pattern. Up following Sep 18 50bps cut. Then grinded sideways into month end which was also quarter end. 10/1 it jumped and gained 3.19% up to its top. I'm looking for SPY $567 by Friday and Monday at the latest, but I'll want my position on Friday as the 2007 pattern Oct 1 was the Monday. I'll be looking at Oct 11 and Oct 18 expirations. Hard to determine strike right now, but likely pretty close to ATM. Targeting SPY $485-$490. If we can get Oct 18 $575's for under $5, that's a slightly greater than 2:1 R/R on min target and a 3x+ at max target.

Put it on your radar. Do keep in mind though, premium paid will be your risk. If I do this, I will not be advising a stop or any selling if at a loss. I size it based on the risk I want to undertake and its ride or die. It also all depends on how this week finishes. If we are up through Friday, the R/R wont be there. Need SPY to retrace.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
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Heineken-Ashi
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11:42a, 9/25/24
Here's 2007 SPY



Here's what I'm looking at now



And it's the 8D EMA I'm looking for retracement into, not 5D. I forgot which EMA I was showing.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
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Tumble Weed
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In reply to Heineken-Ashi • 11:48a, 9/25/24
Heineken-Ashi said:
Here's 2007 SPY



Here's what I'm looking at now

The coolest thing about that graph is that I still own stock that I bought in 2007.
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Heineken-Ashi
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In reply to Tumble Weed • 11:51a, 9/25/24
Well if this plays out, it might be time to remove a bunch of risk.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
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TTUArmy
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12:21p, 9/25/24
Hmm...mass layoffs at Stellantis. Car market is wrecked.
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harge57
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12:24p, 9/25/24
AG
Have had a lot of limit orders hit lately, starting to stock pile a bit of cash.

Recently sold:
PLTR
UBER
POWL

My MSFT Limit of $442 came within moments of hitting last week.

The only thing tempting me right now for a long term hold is GOOG, I think its undervalued, but has short term risk from Antitrust case. Everything else will need to come back down/ new news for me to buy. Would potentially buy:
UBER <$70
POWL <$170
SMCI - Expecting a run up or down once they release delayed filing. Not sure how to play that.
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El_duderino
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In reply to Heineken-Ashi • 12:34p, 9/25/24
Did you mean targeting SPY $585-$590?
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ProgN
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In reply to harge57 • 12:34p, 9/25/24
harge57 said:
Have had a lot of limit orders hit lately, starting to stock pile a bit of cash.

Recently sold:
PLTR
UBER
POWL

My MSFT Limit of $442 came within moments of hitting last week.

The only thing tempting me right now for a long term hold is GOOG, I think its undervalued, but has short term risk from Antitrust case. Everything else will need to come back down/ new news for me to buy. Would potentially buy:
UBER <$70
POWL <$170
SMCI - Expecting a run up or down once they release delayed filing. Not sure how to play that.
Sit on that cash pile and be patient is my advice. SMCI splits 10:1 next Tuesday. Even though it's come down HARD from it's highs it's still expensive for most retail investors at $460/shr. That said, it won't be too expensive for them at $46/shr. I want to see if their lower price + low PE attracts retail. The dumbasses couldn't split at a worse time, October?? Are you f'ing kidding me? They should've split at their ER before the one they did declare.
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TTUArmy
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12:35p, 9/25/24
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Chef Elko
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In reply to TTUArmy • 12:49p, 9/25/24
AG
Someone needs to find whatever the next AI is and FOMO buy it for the next leg up.
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TTUArmy
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In reply to Chef Elko • 1:02p, 9/25/24
Chef Elko said:
Someone needs to find whatever the next AI is and FOMO buy it for the next leg up.
Yeah...lately, it seems if a stock is headed south on a missed earnings call, a little press release stating "We will be implementing AI"...for reasons, pushes it back up a bit.
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Heineken-Ashi
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In reply to El_duderino • 1:03p, 9/25/24
El_duderino said:
Did you mean targeting SPY $585-$590?
Yes
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
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Heineken-Ashi
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In reply to TTUArmy • 1:06p, 9/25/24
TTUArmy said:
Hmm...mass layoffs at Stellantis. Car market is wrecked.
Customer service at my dodge dealership has gone in the tank and a lot of the bell and whistle window dressing around the building was gone. Not sure if seasonal, but they are hurting. When your car is getting an oil change and a salesman from the some dealership calls asking if you will trade in for a new car, you can smell the desperation.

I told him that I want a rate 100 basis points below current market and a 20% discount from current pricing while my trade-in being market value. I don't think he liked my terms.. but that's the terms I'm likely going to get in the next 6-12 months, so I can be patient.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
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Heineken-Ashi
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In reply to TTUArmy • 1:07p, 9/25/24
TTUArmy said:
Anyone have a link to strip club economic indicator?
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
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SW AG80
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In reply to harge57 • 1:24p, 9/25/24
AG
I bought MSFT in April 2020. I believe my basis is around $130/share.
I'm up 208%!!

I don't want to pay the taxes on that. Definitely 1st world problem.

I've already made a good bit on POWL and cashed out Monday. Just waiting for the next POWL dip. But don't want to add MSFT gain to POWL winnings. I hate paying taxes!!

But paying a 15% long term gain tax may be better than what lies ahead. May wait until the election and then decide.
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ProgN
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In reply to SW AG80 • 1:35p, 9/25/24
FWIW, CNBC had a guest on earlier this morning and he said that if the dems sweep and have control of the WH and Congress, then he expects a lot of selling before the end of the year due to the fact that they may be able to raise capital gains taxes considerably higher. That was his opinion from a business perspective, not political.
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nancydeedavis
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1:45p, 9/25/24
$POWL looking like it's putting in a RDR
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Heineken-Ashi
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In reply to SW AG80 • 1:45p, 9/25/24
SW AG80 said:
I bought MSFT in April 2020. I believe my basis is around $130/share.
I'm up 208%!!

I don't want to pay the taxes on that. Definitely 1st world problem.

I've already made a good bit on POWL and cashed out Monday. Just waiting for the next POWL dip. But don't want to add MSFT gain to POWL winnings. I hate paying taxes!!

But paying a 15% long term gain tax may be better than what lies ahead. May wait until the election and then decide.
Some interesting divergence



The 2020 low had positive divergence with RSI leading into it, with MACD on a positive trend. This recent low had similar positive RSI divergence leading into it, but negative divergence with MACD. This gives me pause on expecting any sort of renewed cycle up. This most likely leads to either range bound or significant decline.

I understand not wanting to take the tax hit. But gains aren't gains unless you book them. And even if this goes range bound, it could be for a very long time. Taking the profits from MSFT and deploying into something safe could "potentially" pay you back for that tax hit while protecting the gains should MSFT see a huge decline.

No easy call though. Future is always unknown. All we can do is make educated guesses based on what is visible at the time.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
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Brian Earl Spilner
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3:02p, 9/25/24
AG
What's with the big green candles AH?
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ProgN
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In reply to Brian Earl Spilner • 3:03p, 9/25/24
Brian Earl Spilner said:
What's with the big green candles AH?
MU beat earnings
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El_duderino
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In reply to Brian Earl Spilner • 3:03p, 9/25/24
Likely $MU earnings.
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Brian Earl Spilner
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3:04p, 9/25/24
AG
Nice.
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SW AG80
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In reply to Heineken-Ashi • 3:30p, 9/25/24
AG

I understand not wanting to take the tax hit. But gains aren't gains unless you book them

That, too, could change. Hard to believe that is even a serious conversation.
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Brian Earl Spilner
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3:47p, 9/25/24
AG
Sold SOXL AH. Placing buy orders below.
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