When you get back and settled in, then let's grab some beers. I'm not drinking tea, just saying.59 South said:
Ha! The party ends next summer and back to Tejas hermano.
This is incredible:
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) September 13, 2024
If you bought the S&P 500 ETF, $SPY, at market open and sold at market close every day since its inception in 1993, you'd be up just +13.3%.
This means that the vast majority of gains have occurred after market close and before market open.
Buying the… pic.twitter.com/zGP4g6RumD
Dan Scott said:
DJT gonna fly
ravingfans said:Dan Scott said:
DJT gonna fly
What does this mean? The Don is firing up his jet to travel somewhere? He is winning all his court cases? Or he is skipping town and going somewhere non-extradictable?
I bleed maroon said:
Speaking business-wise (not making a political statement), I think DJT is a scam that will be subject to lawsuits in the future, so as an investment, I wouldn't touch it. Hear me out - -
It serves as a vehicle for large donors to make their political contributions tax-deductible, to a point. If a person already wanted to make a $500,000 cash donation, they instead buy $500,000 worth of DJT, which by all rights will have no future value to speak of (99% chance - study their fundamentals), and as price decreases, they can take capital losses to offset capital gains elsewhere in their portfolio. They may curry favor with Trump as a result of their "investment" (remember, he's planning to take out capital whenever he is allowed), and who knows, if Twitter/X somehow implodes, it may actually be worth something someday (less than 1% chance). It's a great tool to leverage your donation money, and I truly believe it (and similar schemes) should/will be outlawed in the future, as a blatant tax-dodge.
Bocephus said:I bleed maroon said:
Speaking business-wise (not making a political statement), I think DJT is a scam that will be subject to lawsuits in the future, so as an investment, I wouldn't touch it. Hear me out - -
It serves as a vehicle for large donors to make their political contributions tax-deductible, to a point. If a person already wanted to make a $500,000 cash donation, they instead buy $500,000 worth of DJT, which by all rights will have no future value to speak of (99% chance - study their fundamentals), and as price decreases, they can take capital losses to offset capital gains elsewhere in their portfolio. They may curry favor with Trump as a result of their "investment" (remember, he's planning to take out capital whenever he is allowed), and who knows, if Twitter/X somehow implodes, it may actually be worth something someday (less than 1% chance). It's a great tool to leverage your donation money, and I truly believe it (and similar schemes) should/will be outlawed in the future, as a blatant tax-dodge.
I bought $DJT so Trump could borrow against its value so he could pay his bond on a completely BS civil suit for overvaluing real estate. It was my small way to express my displeasure at blatant injustice.
Quote:
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) September 18 2007: 2:23 PM EDT -- The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to lower its target for the federal funds rate 50 basis points to 4.75 percent.
Economic growth was moderate during the first half of the year, but the tightening of credit conditions has the potential to intensify the housing correction and to restrain economic growth more generally.
Today's action is intended to help forestall some of the adverse effects on the broader economy that might otherwise arise from the disruptions in financial markets and to promote moderate growth over time.
Readings on core inflation have improved modestly this year. However, the Committee judges that some inflation risks remain, and it will continue to monitor inflation developments carefully.
Developments in financial markets since the Committee's last regular meeting have increased the uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook. The Committee will continue to assess the effects of these and other developments on economic prospects and will act as needed to foster price stability and sustainable economic growth.
I'm not sure what vehicles you're referring to - please expand?Philip J Fry said:
No different than the Ukraine or other vehicles the democrats use to funnel money to their pockets/campaigns.
Heineken-Ashi said:
I reduced all of my September SLV calls to at least net free positions. Many of them firmly profitable. Some booked big profits. Oct $27's I sold half at 200%, firmly in the green. Not touching Novembers or later yet unless the positions get to 150% return or higher at which point I might sell 25-50%.
Congrats to anyone patient on SLV or who added during these months of correction/consolidation. It's a great day to reduce exposure or take some profits. Don't give it a chance to get you in a hole.
I'm not sure I would roll them. We have 4 days to expiration with a catalyst Wednesday that could send it in either direction over the short term. The issue with rolling, is that you'd be using profits to acquire OTM contracts for later dates when price is high. This is why I have been continually stacking positions for September every time SLV has dipped. I generated enough profit from short term gains on opportunistic buys along with going net free on OTM stuff that I'm not only squared away for September, I'm firmly in the green. But what I also did on the big red days was use that as opportunity to buy Oct, Nov, Dec, and Jan $27 and $28's for cheap. And I averaged down my Jan $30's and $35's. So squared away in September with good profits, and plenty of ammo in place for rest of the year.ravingfans said:Heineken-Ashi said:
I reduced all of my September SLV calls to at least net free positions. Many of them firmly profitable. Some booked big profits. Oct $27's I sold half at 200%, firmly in the green. Not touching Novembers or later yet unless the positions get to 150% return or higher at which point I might sell 25-50%.
Congrats to anyone patient on SLV or who added during these months of correction/consolidation. It's a great day to reduce exposure or take some profits. Don't give it a chance to get you in a hole.
trying to decide best roll up strategy on my Sept 20 '24 $25 calls. How do you assess the best value against risk and how much profit to capture?
for example:
3.05 - .88 = 2.17 * 1200 = $2604 sell Sep20 '24 25
2.17 - .74 = 1.43 * 1200 = $1716 roll to Oct18'24 29's
2.17 - 1.15 = 1.02 * 1200 = $1224 roll to Oct18'24 30's
2.17 - 1.19 = 0.98 * 1200 = $1176 roll to Nov15 '24 29's
2.17 - .89 = 1.28 * 1200 = $1536 roll to Nov15 '24 30's
2.17 - 1.64 = 0.53 * 1200 = $636 roll to Dec31 '24 29's
2.17 - 1.31 = 0.86 * 1200 = $1032.0 roll to Dec31 '24 30's
2.17 - 1.05 = 1.12 * 1200 = $1344.0 roll to Dec31 '24 31's
2.17 - .85 = 1.32 * 1200 = $1584 roll to Dec31 '24 32's
Am I looking at this the right way? Extracting maybe $1.20 each or should I focus on net free instead?
Think I read somebody mentioning a possible SLV at $34 or $35 in December recently.
No, I think that would give the signal that the economy is headed for rough times, so still sell the news.Twisted Helix said:
Does this change if it's a surprise 50 bps?
IMO, it's going to be worse if we don't get 50 bps. The bond market has already bet on a 50 bps cut at a current expectation nearing 80%. Even if we get 50 bps, I expect a sell the news scenario because it's already been priced in. That also means added risk, because if the Fed only gives 25 bps, then the market will more than likely throw a pissy fit and sell off even more.Twisted Helix said:
Does this change if it's a surprise 50 bps?
I tend to agree with the last two posts. 50bp has more equity market downside than 25bp, but may be better for the economy, near-term. It may provide a kick-start to the real estate market, and maybe improve economics for small caps and heavily leveraged stocks. My two cents is that the market will stay mostly range-bound in the 5400-5700 range for the S&P until the election. At that point, all bets are off.ProgN said:IMO, it's going to be worse if we don't get 50 bps. The bond market has already bet on a 50 bps cut at a current expectation nearing 80%. Even if we get 50 bps, I expect a sell the news scenario because it's already been priced in. That also means added risk, because if the Fed only gives 25 bps, then the market will more than likely throw a pissy fit and sell off even more.Twisted Helix said:
Does this change if it's a surprise 50 bps?
I don't have a crystal ball so don't take what I say as gospel. I'm just posting what I see as a potential scenario that I've was burned by in my past. I don't want anyone here to lose money and get burned. I'm just urging caution.
Heineken-Ashi said:
Over the next year rates are going to continue coming down as the reality of economic downturn forces the FED to continue to cut, same as every other time we've been in a similar place.
But sometime between late 2025 and 2026 I expect the bond market to start its next selloff and rates to go back up.
jamey said:Heineken-Ashi said:
Over the next year rates are going to continue coming down as the reality of economic downturn forces the FED to continue to cut, same as every other time we've been in a similar place.
But sometime between late 2025 and 2026 I expect the bond market to start its next selloff and rates to go back up.
You still expext Bond prices to pop pretty good between now and
then as rates continue down?
As interest rates drop, all of that liquidity will be headed towards the stock market...and out of bonds. Granny Yellen will have her hands full trying to sell her treasuries. If one of those 10 yr auctions looks pretty shaky, I think the Fed opens up the wallet and puts it on their balance sheet.Heineken-Ashi said:Treasury bonds will rise as rates come down. Corporates, munis, and junk should too. Go look at a TLT chart over every period of significant rate movement. Even when it's breaking out, it's not likely to move like a breakout stock outside of very few instances. This could be one, or it could be slower. All I know is that the market is going to have no choice but to demand more return for American paper at some point. I wouldn't want to be invest long in bonds when it makes the flip. My guess is 2025-2026, but nobody truly knows when something will happen.jamey said:You still expext Bond prices to pop pretty good between now andHeineken-Ashi said:
Over the next year rates are going to continue coming down as the reality of economic downturn forces the FED to continue to cut, same as every other time we've been in a similar place.
But sometime between late 2025 and 2026 I expect the bond market to start its next selloff and rates to go back up.
then as rates continue down?
The standard playbook when kicking a can down the road. Unfortunately, the FED doesn't have a balance sheet capable of significant amounts of new treasuries without triggering extended stagflation, and then hyperinflation. And the market for bonds goes beyond the FED. It wasn't the FED that drove rates up in the 70's and 80's. It was the market dictating to the FED that higher rates were the only thing that would be accepted.TTUArmy said:As interest rates drop, all of that liquidity will be headed towards the stock market...and out of bonds. Granny Yellen will have her hands full trying to sell her treasuries. If one of those 10 yr auctions looks pretty shaky, I think the Fed opens up the wallet and puts it on their balance sheet.Heineken-Ashi said:Treasury bonds will rise as rates come down. Corporates, munis, and junk should too. Go look at a TLT chart over every period of significant rate movement. Even when it's breaking out, it's not likely to move like a breakout stock outside of very few instances. This could be one, or it could be slower. All I know is that the market is going to have no choice but to demand more return for American paper at some point. I wouldn't want to be invest long in bonds when it makes the flip. My guess is 2025-2026, but nobody truly knows when something will happen.jamey said:You still expext Bond prices to pop pretty good between now andHeineken-Ashi said:
Over the next year rates are going to continue coming down as the reality of economic downturn forces the FED to continue to cut, same as every other time we've been in a similar place.
But sometime between late 2025 and 2026 I expect the bond market to start its next selloff and rates to go back up.
then as rates continue down?
🔸FED INTEREST RATE CUTS WILL BOOST GOLD PRICES GOLDMAN SACHS SAYS
— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) September 17, 2024
The bank maintains its $2,700/toz target for early 2025, citing a strong relationship between Fed policy and gold prices, along with rising central bank demand.
Despite concerns that the traditional inverse…
