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24,703,648 Views | 233398 Replies | Last: 4 min ago by Heineken-Ashi
bmoochie
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AG
El_duderino said:

SPY already trying to take out ATH this morning


This is kind of why I think we rip tomorrow no matter what rate cut answer we got. Market wants the highs so bad and this would be time for blowoff the top. Just my 2 cents which are actually worth nothing.
CC09LawAg
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bmoochie said:

El_duderino said:

SPY already trying to take out ATH this morning
Just my 2 cents which are actually worth nothing.
Not even opinions are safe from inflation in this environment.
bmoochie
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jamey
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AG
Heineken-Ashi said:

jamey said:

Heineken-Ashi said:

Over the next year rates are going to continue coming down as the reality of economic downturn forces the FED to continue to cut, same as every other time we've been in a similar place.

But sometime between late 2025 and 2026 I expect the bond market to start its next selloff and rates to go back up.


You still expext Bond prices to pop pretty good between now and
then as rates continue down?


Treasury bonds will rise as rates come down. Corporates, munis, and junk should too. Go look at a TLT chart over every period of significant rate movement. Even when it's breaking out, it's not likely to move like a breakout stock outside of very few instances. This could be one, or it could be slower. All I know is that the market is going to have no choice but to demand more return for American paper at some point. I wouldn't want to be invest long in bonds when it makes thet flip. My guess is 2025-2026, but nobody truly knows when something will happen.





You still buying bonds?

I'm still buying some in my weekly paycheck 401K fund
Heineken-Ashi
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jamey said:

Heineken-Ashi said:

jamey said:

Heineken-Ashi said:

Over the next year rates are going to continue coming down as the reality of economic downturn forces the FED to continue to cut, same as every other time we've been in a similar place.

But sometime between late 2025 and 2026 I expect the bond market to start its next selloff and rates to go back up.


You still expext Bond prices to pop pretty good between now and
then as rates continue down?


Treasury bonds will rise as rates come down. Corporates, munis, and junk should too. Go look at a TLT chart over every period of significant rate movement. Even when it's breaking out, it's not likely to move like a breakout stock outside of very few instances. This could be one, or it could be slower. All I know is that the market is going to have no choice but to demand more return for American paper at some point. I wouldn't want to be invest long in bonds when it makes thet flip. My guess is 2025-2026, but nobody truly knows when something will happen.





You still buying bonds?

I'm still buying some in my weekly paycheck 401K fund
I have the positions I want and will be watching closely over the next year and will not hesitate to exit and go to cash if I smell a bond market crash anywhere on the horizon.

People need to remember 2022. Money flowing out of bonds doesn't just go directly into stocks. They sold off at the same time.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
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Chef Elko
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I've very slowly started to roll my cash into TLT. The big question is will all the money market money roll to longer duration treasuries or into the stock market? I wonder how the majority of investors feel about rolling bills into bonds with 1.50%+ less yield.
Chef Elko
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I think all the big money has been flowing into private credit funds
CC09LawAg
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NVM I spooked it. Not gonna jinx it
Brian Earl Spilner
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AG
TNA
southernskies
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I think you should change your name to TNA Spillner
El_duderino
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Nah. He's gotta keep the serial killer name
Brian Earl Spilner
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AG
Taken $3,320 profit between Friday and today on TNA and SOXL.

Set a whole bunch of buys below for the fireworks tomorrow. Would much rather end up with a strong case of FOMO than watch all my profits disappear.

Leaving my TQQQ in case we have a moonshot tomorrow. Sitting on a 15% gain currently.

Not bad for 1 week swing trades.
BartInLA
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Investment Business Daily

What is your opinion of the Top 50 stocks they list?
Plan:
1. Look at target price guesses for each of the 50 with a range and mean (standard deviation if possible).
2. Look at many other key metrics like revenue growth and net over many quarters.
3. Do a fairly deep read on each interesting company that passes muster.
4. Invest 70% of my stock money in say 15 to 30 of these companies with different weights. Like if 20 stocks my top gets 8% and the 20th gets 2%.
5. Reevaluate every 2-4 weeks.

Brian Earl Spilner
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AG
Could not have timed that TNA sell any better. Sold at $44.45.
kyle field 94
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AG
Sava news?
Heineken-Ashi
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I've got different tranches of IWM puts for almost a month now. Went net free and even booked significant profits last week on most. Now I've initiated Friday expiring $220 calls looking for $224-$225 as both a hedge to my downside positions AND an FOMC pop play. They aren't cheap, and R/R is less than 2:1, but since it's FIRST a hedge, I decided to pull the trigger. Will add to them if we get IWM $216 before noon tomorrow.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
BucketofBalls99
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kyle field 94 said:

Sava news?

Was wondering about this bump also
South Platte
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Metals still rolling. Finally my Palladium ETF is cooperating.
Heineken-Ashi
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Very random find, but I'm buying BLNK with stop at $1.50. Currently $1.88. 1st target is $2.50 gap fill. Buy enough so you can go net free there. The target for the rest is $8.30 minimum and $11.70 most likely. If net free, you just stash the shares away. Chart shows cost to buy, how much to sell to go net free, and profit if target his hit with R/R at bottom. $11.70 target would be 7.5x R/R.



This is one of those where I buy with an OCO bracket so I can set the buy price, the sell price (in this case it would be $2.50 and the amount of shares needed to get net free), and the stop price. Then leave it alone. It either works or doesn't. If net free sell goes off at some point, then I set a new sell order and decide if I want to update stop or just leave it alone since I will have no risk.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
aggieband 83
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Brian Earl Spilner said:

Could not have timed that TNA sell any better. Sold at $44.45.
A while back, you gave an explanation of how you pick your target buy price and how you pick your target sell price for TNA. You also showed a chart with the corresponding waves overlayed on the daily price chart. I have been searching on the old TexAgs posts but cannot find it.

Can you give a refresher on what you look for to find your buy position and sell position? It is interesting how closely your anticipated price matches up with the actual price. You have found a unique system.
Heineken-Ashi
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Ya'll know I don't like guessing. I've made it clear what the structure of the market - whether SPX, IWM, bond yields, metals - is likely pointing to "in my opinion" based on my study of market sentiment and historical analogous structures. I try to stay unbiased when I look at anything, whether its an index, a fund, an economy, or an individual stock and I try to focus on the most probable path that my experience can identify. It's HARD trying to guide others on direction and targets which is why I've largely avoided it unless I feel it's painfully clear.

Ok, that said, I'm going to try and guess what is coming. And it will likely be wrong. It's just a guess. If you trade what I say, you do so at your own risk.

We are essentially in no man's land. That means that multiple options are on the table. The most immediate downside path has invalidated. But don't get hung up on that. That merely means that we had a downside setup that was pointing to a potential breakdown in the markets, but the bulls were able to gain enough momentum to at least kick the can. It DOESN'T mean that we won't go down. It just means I don't have a blueprint to track it. Go back to when I was advising to be careful with NVDA in July as it had an imminent downside threat. I laid out a blueprint, and while it wasn't followed tick for tick, it mostly played out correct. I don't have such a blueprint right now.

So based on everything I've looked at, my guess is that the most likely scenario tomorrow is a bullish spike of some sort. How long it lasts is anyone's guess. I would study index movements from 2000 and 2007. Possible even 1990. There's tons of fractals which will not repeat but can rhyme. The most applicable to current economic, monetary policy, and stock market structure parallels is 2007, where the Sep 18th 50bps rate cut caused a short term spike that was quickly followed with the beginning of one of the largest corrections in market history. In 2000, the FED actually surprised the market by not raising rates in September. And that was an election year. The market was slightly volatile for a short period and then broke downward into what we now know was the dotcom bust. 1990 was the mini gulf war recession and the FED started its cuts in July with the market bottoming in October and being back to pre-rate cut levels in February of 1991. 1987 was black Monday in October. It's not very similar to where we are today, but it's an interesting case study nonetheless.

Quote:

Those cuts added fuel to a stock-market rally, with the S&P 500 up 31% in 1985, up 18% in 1986, and up another 31% through the end of September 1987, Colas noted.

Students of market history know what happened next. Black Monday - Oct. 19, 1987 - saw the S&P 500 plunge more than 20% in a single day, while the Dow dropped 23%. The S&P 500 ended the fourth quarter of 1987 with a loss of 23%.

"The Fed knows the cautionary tale of 1985-1986 and, at lower absolute policy rates now, they have even more reason to be cautious about the pace of rate cuts in 2024," Colas wrote. "Without an imminent recession, there is simply no precedent for +1.0 points of rate cuts this year."

Moreover, "stocks are already doing well enough that the risk of sparking an unsustainable rally (a la 1987) is very high indeed," he wrote.

Colas acknowledged the possibility that fed-funds futures are "trying to tell us something" about the potential for a recession.

1987 stock-market crash has lessons for traders convinced Fed will cut rates | Morningstar
The truth is that every situation is different and the market is not static. It never responds as expected, hence where just about every economist always ends up wrong and stupified.

One thing is clear and history screams it. Follow bond yields. When bond yields fall with unemployment rising, it's a clear cut sign that the economy is "most likely" moving into recession. Couple that with the multiple Hindenburg Omens that have now happened, and if you aren't prepared for significant downside in the markets, you are running out of time. I would be very strategic about what you chase upward and I wouldn't get caught up in FOMO here. We are in the middle of the worst month of average market performance with next month home to some of the worst crashes in history. This at a time where a former president running again has had two attempts at his life and his running mate was removed and replaced without a single voter having a say.

My advice is to protect your cash and have stops in place. Don't get caught with pants down. Have clear targets for upside. Be measured and controlled. Let's see what happens next.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
Brian Earl Spilner
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I don't think I've ever posted waves as I don't really use those.

I'm far from an expert and for TNA I've basically just followed this basic strategy:

1. When it's below $42 or so, place buys at every major support level down to the 31-32 range.
2. For each of those lots, take profits at resistance levels above $37. I sell on a low cost basis so as to take profits first and avoid wash sales.

Rinse and repeat.

I've been lucky that I haven't had to worry about stops so far this year, which would've been around $30.

I've just focused on my limits and done my best to block out the noise. At most I'll move my limit up or down a little bit depending on a day's patterns.

For instance, my next limit was $45 but I decided to sell at $44.45 today when it looked like everything was about to sell off. So I was lucky today. It's also bitten me in previous trades, but in the end it's just a small % difference in either direction.

Oh, and I also place all orders as GTC + Extended, which has allowed me to take advantage of several huge dips/spikes in premarket.
Brian Earl Spilner
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Here's all my trades on the yearly chart, which looks chaotic as all hell... (Green are buys, red are sells.)

ProgN
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Brian Earl Spilner said:

Here's all my trades on the yearly chart, which looks chaotic as all hell... (Green are buys, red are sells.)


EnronAg
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AG
soooooo, when are the fireworks?!?
Ragoo
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AG
FOMC is 1 central
Brian Earl Spilner
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AG
It's the deep breath before the plunge...
SAag1113
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AG
Not to get political, but could we see a false rocket for the economy going into the election to give people a warm and fuzzy before they vote?
Brewmaster
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AG
southernskies said:

I think you should change your name to TNA Spillner
TNA Ag is my vote, lol
Diggity
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definitely....that's why Elizabeth Warren and her crew are pushing for a 75 basis point cut (and The Donald wants no cut until after election).
HoustonAg2014
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AG
I'm guessing .25 BP then we tank then we rocket. But you may fade me.
Heineken-Ashi
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SAag1113 said:

Not to get political, but could we see a false rocket for the economy going into the election to give people a warm and fuzzy before they vote?
Yes, hedge funds and Blackrock will press the buy button all day everyday until the election. Then they will press the sell button to get Trump.

/sarcasm

It's not that simple. There are countless trades of all types placed every single day. Heavy options volume forces dealers to constantly hedge their position to stay gamma neutral.. heavy call buying means dealers are on the other side with their risk to the upside, so they have to buy SHARES of the underlying to maintain a neutral net position. This happens in mass volume every single day. Add on interest rate risk and you get additional dealer hedging. If you think there's a single entity or small pool of entities controlling the direction of the market, I need to see you lay out your thesis for how it works, because it's simply not true. You might have select situations where a hedge fund buys something up in an attempt to trap retail, but for every one of those you have short gamma squeezes that trap them and force action the other way. The market is made up of hundreds of millions of competing personalities. And every attempt to heavily dictate one direction is met with opportunity to profit in the opposite.

Here's today's volume so far for SPX 0DTE options


The most important thing is follow the general flow. We are long gamma by about 30 SPX points. That means that the next 1% move down will be met with a small amount net buying and 1% move up will be met with slightly larger amount of selling. But that doesn't stay static. When mass participation starts leaning heavily to one side.. say everyone buying calls and dealers hedging by buying shares, the lack of put buying means no hedging for downside.. meaning the floor below becomes very weak. If you lose a support level in that instance, there's nobody to buy the dip. On Aug 5, the market was so heavily long, it took one of the worst dips in years before there was any money available to step in buy the dip.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
Brian Earl Spilner
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AG
HoustonAg2014 said:

I'm guessing .25 BP then we tank then we rocket. But you may fade me.
My limit orders would like this.

Buy orders:
TNA: 42.50, 41.50, 40, 38.25
TQQQ: 65, 63, 60
SOXL: 30, 28

Targets:
TNA: 45
TQQQ: 69
SOXL: 35
HoustonAg2014
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AG
What do you have? I have some buying power. Either Selling puts or putting in limit buys. Haven't decided yet…

Just saw your post. Thanks
FishrCoAg
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AG
Heineken-Ashi said:

SAag1113 said:

Not to get political, but could we see a false rocket for the economy going into the election to give people a warm and fuzzy before they vote?
Yes, hedge funds and Blackrock will press the buy button all day everyday until the election. Then they will press the sell button to get Trump.

/sarcasm

It's not that simple. There are countless trades of all types placed every single day. Heavy options volume forces dealers to constantly hedge their position to stay gamma neutral.. heavy call buying means dealers are on the other side with their risk to the upside, so they have to buy SHARES of the underlying to maintain a neutral net position. This happens in mass volume every single day. Add on interest rate risk and you get additional dealer hedging. If you think there's a single entity or small pool of entities controlling the direction of the market, I need to see you lay out your thesis for how it works, because it's simply not true. You might have select situations where a hedge fund buys something up in an attempt to trap retail, but for every one of those you have short gamma squeezes that trap them and force action the other way. The market is made up of hundreds of millions of competing personalities. And every attempt to heavily dictate one direction is met with opportunity to profit in the opposite.

Here's today's volume so far for SPX 0DTE options


The most important thing is follow the general flow. We are long gamma by about 30 SPX points. That means that the next 1% move down will be met with a small amount net buying and 1% move up will be met with slightly larger amount of selling. But that doesn't stay static. When mass participation starts leaning heavily to one side.. say everyone buying calls and dealers hedging by buying shares, the lack of put buying means no hedging for downside.. meaning the floor below becomes very weak. If you lose a support level in that instance, there's nobody to buy the dip. On Aug 5, the market was so heavily long, it took one of the worst dips in years before there was any money available to step in buy the dip.


This post is helpful because what confuses me when people talk about "heavy call buying" for example, someone also has to be selling those calls.
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