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59 South
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Yea I've round tripped some long term shares but had bought originally in the $3-5 range. By chart I mean this year daily and weekly. 2020-2021 was nuts but that applies to lots of tickers…
If this post is on the B&I forum, lighten up it's just money!

Disclaimer: I'm not that smart.
ProgN
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59 South said:

Ha! The party ends next summer and back to Tejas hermano.
When you get back and settled in, then let's grab some beers. I'm not drinking tea, just saying.
ProgN
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I'd have paid money if you dropped this line at the NIO showroom.
aggies4life
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El_duderino
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$3.56mm order just before the close yesterday of Jan '25 35/45c strikes on SLV. 40,000 and 80,000 contract respectively
Spoony Love
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24 hour trading would change that drastically I think. I could be wrong though.
Dan Scott
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DJT gonna fly
Dan Scott
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Russel up 1.4%
ravingfans
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Dan Scott said:

DJT gonna fly


What does this mean? The Don is firing up his jet to travel somewhere? He is winning all his court cases? Or he is skipping town and going somewhere non-extradictable?
Bocephus
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ravingfans said:

Dan Scott said:

DJT gonna fly


What does this mean? The Don is firing up his jet to travel somewhere? He is winning all his court cases? Or he is skipping town and going somewhere non-extradictable?


I think he is implying that the stock is going up bc of the second assassination attempt
TAMU ‘98 Ole Miss ‘21
I bleed maroon
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Speaking business-wise (not making a political statement), I think DJT is a scam that will be subject to lawsuits in the future, so as an investment, I wouldn't touch it. Hear me out - -

It serves as a vehicle for large donors to make their political contributions tax-deductible, to a point. If a person already wanted to make a $500,000 cash donation, they instead buy $500,000 worth of DJT, which by all rights will have no future value to speak of (99% chance - study their fundamentals), and as price decreases, they can take capital losses to offset capital gains elsewhere in their portfolio. They may curry favor with Trump as a result of their "investment" (remember, he's planning to take out capital whenever he is allowed), and who knows, if Twitter/X somehow implodes, it may actually be worth something someday (less than 1% chance). It's a great tool to leverage your donation money, and I truly believe it (and similar schemes) should/will be outlawed in the future, as a blatant tax-dodge.
Bocephus
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I bleed maroon said:

Speaking business-wise (not making a political statement), I think DJT is a scam that will be subject to lawsuits in the future, so as an investment, I wouldn't touch it. Hear me out - -

It serves as a vehicle for large donors to make their political contributions tax-deductible, to a point. If a person already wanted to make a $500,000 cash donation, they instead buy $500,000 worth of DJT, which by all rights will have no future value to speak of (99% chance - study their fundamentals), and as price decreases, they can take capital losses to offset capital gains elsewhere in their portfolio. They may curry favor with Trump as a result of their "investment" (remember, he's planning to take out capital whenever he is allowed), and who knows, if Twitter/X somehow implodes, it may actually be worth something someday (less than 1% chance). It's a great tool to leverage your donation money, and I truly believe it (and similar schemes) should/will be outlawed in the future, as a blatant tax-dodge.


I bought $DJT so Trump could borrow against its value so he could pay his bond on a completely BS civil suit for overvaluing real estate. It was my small way to express my displeasure at blatant injustice.
TAMU ‘98 Ole Miss ‘21
Brian Earl Spilner
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Re-bought some of my SOXL position at $31.
I bleed maroon
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Bocephus said:

I bleed maroon said:

Speaking business-wise (not making a political statement), I think DJT is a scam that will be subject to lawsuits in the future, so as an investment, I wouldn't touch it. Hear me out - -

It serves as a vehicle for large donors to make their political contributions tax-deductible, to a point. If a person already wanted to make a $500,000 cash donation, they instead buy $500,000 worth of DJT, which by all rights will have no future value to speak of (99% chance - study their fundamentals), and as price decreases, they can take capital losses to offset capital gains elsewhere in their portfolio. They may curry favor with Trump as a result of their "investment" (remember, he's planning to take out capital whenever he is allowed), and who knows, if Twitter/X somehow implodes, it may actually be worth something someday (less than 1% chance). It's a great tool to leverage your donation money, and I truly believe it (and similar schemes) should/will be outlawed in the future, as a blatant tax-dodge.


I bought $DJT so Trump could borrow against its value so he could pay his bond on a completely BS civil suit for overvaluing real estate. It was my small way to express my displeasure at blatant injustice.

Great! That's completely your right. More power to you!

Notice - - I did not say it's illegal or even ill-advised to spend your money this way. I just think it is not even close to a sound investment (sounds like you feel the same way), except for the scenario I noted (and probably a few others that I didn't think of). I do think this "loophole" will be closed in the not-too-distant future. Just an opinion, from a business/investing perspective.
Philip J Fry
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No different than the Ukraine or other vehicles the democrats use to funnel money to their pockets/campaigns.
Heineken-Ashi
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As expected, low volume day leading to multi-day consolidation leading into the most anticipated FOMC since Sep 18th 2007.

Quote:

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) September 18 2007: 2:23 PM EDT -- The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to lower its target for the federal funds rate 50 basis points to 4.75 percent.

Economic growth was moderate during the first half of the year, but the tightening of credit conditions has the potential to intensify the housing correction and to restrain economic growth more generally.

Today's action is intended to help forestall some of the adverse effects on the broader economy that might otherwise arise from the disruptions in financial markets and to promote moderate growth over time.

Readings on core inflation have improved modestly this year. However, the Committee judges that some inflation risks remain, and it will continue to monitor inflation developments carefully.

Developments in financial markets since the Committee's last regular meeting have increased the uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook. The Committee will continue to assess the effects of these and other developments on economic prospects and will act as needed to foster price stability and sustainable economic growth.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
I bleed maroon
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Philip J Fry said:

No different than the Ukraine or other vehicles the democrats use to funnel money to their pockets/campaigns.
I'm not sure what vehicles you're referring to - please expand?

The other situation that I'm familiar with that is somewhat similar is book deals / advances provided to politicians. In essence, political supporters guarantee (or at least strongly insinuate) a given level of sales, in order for the publisher (a private business) to front money to a politician. The ghost-writer takes a cut. The books are given out at rallies or sit in a warehouse. It's basically money-laundering. Once again, not expressly illegal currently, but ripe for some cleanup - may be frowned upon or even disallowed at some future point. I think (?) the Clintons were initially very instrumental at working the system on this one.

Both these situations are currently legal, unjustified from a free market business standpoint, and at the very least, a bit unethical. If we want to clean up the system, it's situations like this that should engender bipartisan support to reduce potential corruption. Even a set of guidelines or a pledge to avoid these would help. Buuuuuuuut, that's unlikely to happen, in today's election environment.
ravingfans
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Heineken-Ashi said:

I reduced all of my September SLV calls to at least net free positions. Many of them firmly profitable. Some booked big profits. Oct $27's I sold half at 200%, firmly in the green. Not touching Novembers or later yet unless the positions get to 150% return or higher at which point I might sell 25-50%.

Congrats to anyone patient on SLV or who added during these months of correction/consolidation. It's a great day to reduce exposure or take some profits. Don't give it a chance to get you in a hole.

trying to decide best roll up strategy on my Sept 20 '24 $25 calls. How do you assess the best value against risk and how much profit to capture?

for example:

3.05 - .88 = 2.17 * 1200 = $2604 sell Sep20 '24 25
2.17 - .74 = 1.43 * 1200 = $1716 roll to Oct18'24 29's
2.17 - 1.15 = 1.02 * 1200 = $1224 roll to Oct18'24 30's
2.17 - 1.19 = 0.98 * 1200 = $1176 roll to Nov15 '24 29's
2.17 - .89 = 1.28 * 1200 = $1536 roll to Nov15 '24 30's
2.17 - 1.64 = 0.53 * 1200 = $636 roll to Dec31 '24 29's
2.17 - 1.31 = 0.86 * 1200 = $1032.0 roll to Dec31 '24 30's
2.17 - 1.05 = 1.12 * 1200 = $1344.0 roll to Dec31 '24 31's
2.17 - .85 = 1.32 * 1200 = $1584 roll to Dec31 '24 32's


Am I looking at this the right way? Extracting maybe $1.20 each or should I focus on net free instead?

Think I read somebody mentioning a possible SLV at $34 or $35 in December recently.
Heineken-Ashi
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ravingfans said:

Heineken-Ashi said:

I reduced all of my September SLV calls to at least net free positions. Many of them firmly profitable. Some booked big profits. Oct $27's I sold half at 200%, firmly in the green. Not touching Novembers or later yet unless the positions get to 150% return or higher at which point I might sell 25-50%.

Congrats to anyone patient on SLV or who added during these months of correction/consolidation. It's a great day to reduce exposure or take some profits. Don't give it a chance to get you in a hole.

trying to decide best roll up strategy on my Sept 20 '24 $25 calls. How do you assess the best value against risk and how much profit to capture?

for example:

3.05 - .88 = 2.17 * 1200 = $2604 sell Sep20 '24 25
2.17 - .74 = 1.43 * 1200 = $1716 roll to Oct18'24 29's
2.17 - 1.15 = 1.02 * 1200 = $1224 roll to Oct18'24 30's
2.17 - 1.19 = 0.98 * 1200 = $1176 roll to Nov15 '24 29's
2.17 - .89 = 1.28 * 1200 = $1536 roll to Nov15 '24 30's
2.17 - 1.64 = 0.53 * 1200 = $636 roll to Dec31 '24 29's
2.17 - 1.31 = 0.86 * 1200 = $1032.0 roll to Dec31 '24 30's
2.17 - 1.05 = 1.12 * 1200 = $1344.0 roll to Dec31 '24 31's
2.17 - .85 = 1.32 * 1200 = $1584 roll to Dec31 '24 32's


Am I looking at this the right way? Extracting maybe $1.20 each or should I focus on net free instead?

Think I read somebody mentioning a possible SLV at $34 or $35 in December recently.
I'm not sure I would roll them. We have 4 days to expiration with a catalyst Wednesday that could send it in either direction over the short term. The issue with rolling, is that you'd be using profits to acquire OTM contracts for later dates when price is high. This is why I have been continually stacking positions for September every time SLV has dipped. I generated enough profit from short term gains on opportunistic buys along with going net free on OTM stuff that I'm not only squared away for September, I'm firmly in the green. But what I also did on the big red days was use that as opportunity to buy Oct, Nov, Dec, and Jan $27 and $28's for cheap. And I averaged down my Jan $30's and $35's. So squared away in September with good profits, and plenty of ammo in place for rest of the year.

Now you might not have positions for later dates yet, and when metals truly turn bullish, you might not get another chance, so that's what makes this hard. I would make sure you have solid profits booked in the $25's heading into FOMC with some ammo for more should it rocket. But maybe go grab some Dec or Jan ATM or barely OTM calls knowing that you will average down your basis should SLV drop over the next month. At the same time, maybe grab some Nov $27 or $28 puts worth about 10% of your position as a hedge.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
EngrAg14
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Glancing at options
~2.4% Rise or Drop at time of this post
$275C is 0.28
$250P is 1.24

Big disparity there.
Is general concensus that only a 50 rate cut would show markets higher since a 25 is already price in and obviously a hold would drop?

Trying to hedge but didn't think the call/put difference would be that great.
M4 Benelli
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Lolol at "ethics" while Democrats exist.

Can we keep the topic on Stocks? This is F16 discussion.
ProgN
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Hey gang, I'd be leery taking new long positions until after the Fed cuts rates. I'm expecting a sell the news type event. I'm not advocating that you gamble with puts, but you should take this evening to look at your holdings and maybe lighten up on your positions. Imo, it's better to have some cash to take advantage of selloffs for swing trading. Remember, we are still in the ****tiest month of the year for stocks and we're in overbought territory after last week's hard reversal.

This is just my thinking, and you decide what's best for you.
Twisted Helix
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Does this change if it's a surprise 50 bps?
txaggie_08
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Twisted Helix said:

Does this change if it's a surprise 50 bps?
No, I think that would give the signal that the economy is headed for rough times, so still sell the news.
ProgN
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Twisted Helix said:

Does this change if it's a surprise 50 bps?
IMO, it's going to be worse if we don't get 50 bps. The bond market has already bet on a 50 bps cut at a current expectation nearing 80%. Even if we get 50 bps, I expect a sell the news scenario because it's already been priced in. That also means added risk, because if the Fed only gives 25 bps, then the market will more than likely throw a pissy fit and sell off even more.

I don't have a crystal ball so don't take what I say as gospel. I'm just posting what I see as a potential scenario that I've was burned by in my past. I don't want anyone here to lose money and get burned. I'm just urging caution.
I bleed maroon
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ProgN said:

Twisted Helix said:

Does this change if it's a surprise 50 bps?
IMO, it's going to be worse if we don't get 50 bps. The bond market has already bet on a 50 bps cut at a current expectation nearing 80%. Even if we get 50 bps, I expect a sell the news scenario because it's already been priced in. That also means added risk, because if the Fed only gives 25 bps, then the market will more than likely throw a pissy fit and sell off even more.

I don't have a crystal ball so don't take what I say as gospel. I'm just posting what I see as a potential scenario that I've was burned by in my past. I don't want anyone here to lose money and get burned. I'm just urging caution.
I tend to agree with the last two posts. 50bp has more equity market downside than 25bp, but may be better for the economy, near-term. It may provide a kick-start to the real estate market, and maybe improve economics for small caps and heavily leveraged stocks. My two cents is that the market will stay mostly range-bound in the 5400-5700 range for the S&P until the election. At that point, all bets are off.

I am laying in a few hedges (buying puts on QQQ and SPY), just in case an externality occurs (wars, assassinations, tsips ranked #1 through October, etc.).
Heineken-Ashi
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Over the next year rates are going to continue coming down as the reality of economic downturn forces the FED to continue to cut, same as every other time we've been in a similar place.

But sometime between late 2025 and 2026 I expect the bond market to start its next selloff and rates to go back up.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
jamey
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Heineken-Ashi said:

Over the next year rates are going to continue coming down as the reality of economic downturn forces the FED to continue to cut, same as every other time we've been in a similar place.

But sometime between late 2025 and 2026 I expect the bond market to start its next selloff and rates to go back up.


You still expext Bond prices to pop pretty good between now and
then as rates continue down?
Heineken-Ashi
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jamey said:

Heineken-Ashi said:

Over the next year rates are going to continue coming down as the reality of economic downturn forces the FED to continue to cut, same as every other time we've been in a similar place.

But sometime between late 2025 and 2026 I expect the bond market to start its next selloff and rates to go back up.


You still expext Bond prices to pop pretty good between now and
then as rates continue down?


Treasury bonds will rise as rates come down. Corporates, munis, and junk should too. Go look at a TLT chart over every period of significant rate movement. Even when it's breaking out, it's not likely to move like a breakout stock outside of very few instances. This could be one, or it could be slower. All I know is that the market is going to have no choice but to demand more return for American paper at some point. I wouldn't want to be invest long in bonds when it makes thet flip. My guess is 2025-2026, but nobody truly knows when something will happen.


"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
TTUArmy
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Heineken-Ashi said:

jamey said:

Heineken-Ashi said:

Over the next year rates are going to continue coming down as the reality of economic downturn forces the FED to continue to cut, same as every other time we've been in a similar place.

But sometime between late 2025 and 2026 I expect the bond market to start its next selloff and rates to go back up.
You still expext Bond prices to pop pretty good between now and
then as rates continue down?
Treasury bonds will rise as rates come down. Corporates, munis, and junk should too. Go look at a TLT chart over every period of significant rate movement. Even when it's breaking out, it's not likely to move like a breakout stock outside of very few instances. This could be one, or it could be slower. All I know is that the market is going to have no choice but to demand more return for American paper at some point. I wouldn't want to be invest long in bonds when it makes the flip. My guess is 2025-2026, but nobody truly knows when something will happen.
As interest rates drop, all of that liquidity will be headed towards the stock market...and out of bonds. Granny Yellen will have her hands full trying to sell her treasuries. If one of those 10 yr auctions looks pretty shaky, I think the Fed opens up the wallet and puts it on their balance sheet.
Heineken-Ashi
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TTUArmy said:

Heineken-Ashi said:

jamey said:

Heineken-Ashi said:

Over the next year rates are going to continue coming down as the reality of economic downturn forces the FED to continue to cut, same as every other time we've been in a similar place.

But sometime between late 2025 and 2026 I expect the bond market to start its next selloff and rates to go back up.
You still expext Bond prices to pop pretty good between now and
then as rates continue down?
Treasury bonds will rise as rates come down. Corporates, munis, and junk should too. Go look at a TLT chart over every period of significant rate movement. Even when it's breaking out, it's not likely to move like a breakout stock outside of very few instances. This could be one, or it could be slower. All I know is that the market is going to have no choice but to demand more return for American paper at some point. I wouldn't want to be invest long in bonds when it makes the flip. My guess is 2025-2026, but nobody truly knows when something will happen.
As interest rates drop, all of that liquidity will be headed towards the stock market...and out of bonds. Granny Yellen will have her hands full trying to sell her treasuries. If one of those 10 yr auctions looks pretty shaky, I think the Fed opens up the wallet and puts it on their balance sheet.
The standard playbook when kicking a can down the road. Unfortunately, the FED doesn't have a balance sheet capable of significant amounts of new treasuries without triggering extended stagflation, and then hyperinflation. And the market for bonds goes beyond the FED. It wasn't the FED that drove rates up in the 70's and 80's. It was the market dictating to the FED that higher rates were the only thing that would be accepted.

And again, the liquidity didn't go to the market in 2007 when rates started dropping. Liquidity was sucked out of the system for two years until the FED both bought treasuries AND took existing deposits from banks and fractionalized them into new liquidity. We've had 2 hail mary plays since 2007 and are worse off economically and financially, despite the illusion created by a decimated dollar.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
nortex97
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AG
El_duderino
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SPY already trying to take out ATH this morning
59 South
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Haha, was too busy dealing with the Norwegians.
If this post is on the B&I forum, lighten up it's just money!

Disclaimer: I'm not that smart.
TxAgLaw03RW
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Another Off-Take agreement for WWR. I don't have a link that won't offend our filter but here's a summary:

Wes****er Resources (NYSE: WWR) has announced a binding off-take agreement with Hiller Carbon for the supply of 100% of its natural graphite Fines production from the Kellyton Graphite Plant in Alabama. This agreement, combined with previously announced CSPG off-take agreements with Stellantis and SK ON, means Wes****er has now secured sales for 100% of all materials produced from its Kellyton Phase 1 plant.

Under the agreement, Hiller Carbon will purchase approximately 14,000 mt/year of Wes****er's Phase I Fines production. Graphite Fines are a byproduct of the CSPG spherodizing process, which is part of producing Wes****er's main focus: battery anode natural graphite. This deal marks Wes****er's final commercial agreement for securing purchase commitments for all Phase I output, positioning the company to finalize its construction financing.
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