I bleed maroon said:

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Heineken-Ashi said:

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ALB has dropped below the 61.8% retrace of its last move up and now recovered. Really need that to hold as bottom. If so, I've got some targets going up and applied a loose wave count as possible path. Yellow is an alternate bullish path showing a choppy diagonal up which does grow in probability when Wave ii drops below the 61.8%.

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OK - I'm truly not trying to start a Friday argument here, but just want to present a friendly counterpoint to the casual readers of this thread, as a public service message from another view:

This is what I refer to as the "voodoo" of technical analysis, and why I don't consider it a viable tool for most investing decisions. As near as I can tell, H-A ascribes to a theory that all stocks go through a series of "waves" of price movement that are clearly predictive (with start and stop points magically picked by the psychic chartist). That is, unless they're not "confirmed", whatever that means. So, in a vacuum devoid of real economic news, such as jobs reports, inflation, interest rate changes, etc., stocks always follow this course. It's bunk.

We, of course, live in the real world where market-wide news matters, and this micro-approach has no more predictive value than flipping a coin. Fundamentals (revenue trends, earnings growth, market share and the like) do matter, and have much more influence longer-term, and shouldn't be ignored in the short term, either.

There are useful reasons to pay attention to technical analysis, mostly on selecting entry/exit points when your investing decision is already made. Price/volume activity, insider buying, and others are very helpful. But the biggest use is to benefit from the other sheep that follow these momentum-based theories, thus you can benefit from the self-fulfilling prophecy of like-minded people influencing the market at the fringes.

I am on record that H-A brings great stock-picking ideas to the thread, and his commentary is very helpful to get into the hive-mind of other pseudo-science "seers" of future price movement. But, it's not gospel, and generally not accurate. Just one person's opinion, for what that's worth.

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FishrCoAg said:

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Does it really matter if the price movement is due to fundamentals or "sheep" as you put it following chart patterns? I'm for whatever best predicts the move.

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I bleed maroon said:

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Heineken-Ashi said:

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I've never claimed to be gospel and have reiterated time and again that the predictive nature of EW is loose at best and that it's most useful for determining support and resistance levels. I've also made it clear that I use multiple indicators outside of EW to help determine my potential targets.

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Yep - and you're pretty darn good at disclosing the basis of your thesis (for instance, you usually say when you're basing your decisions on pure technicals, without any fundamental analysis), which helps a lot.

I have absolutely no issue with your contributions to the board - they're significant! I just would hate to think that novice traders think this is "the way" to invest, without considering unmentioned alternative methods.

Happy trading!

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Heineken-Ashi said:

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Cru said:

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Heineken-Ashi said:

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Also buying DDD this week. Earnings Thursday. There's a good chance a very long term bottom was hit, and I have $6-$7 target range for a Christmas rally going as late as Jan/Feb. Stop just below $2.27 recent low. Phenomenal R/R



Zoomed in

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Past couple of days change anything for you with this one?

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Obviously getting one more low. My stop is $1.7. Taking on more risk because this makes more sense as an ending move than beginning of a much lower pattern.

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Brian Earl Spilner said:

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Well SMCI has certainly humbled me. Had been having way too good of a year with TNA.

Stopped out at $390, down 30%, wiped out the vast majority of my TNA gains in my Roth account in about two weeks.

Gonna be rotating a bunch of that into TNA, TQQQ, and SOXL as we continue to fall.

SMCI re-entry currently set at $355 for a smaller number of shares.

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I bleed maroon said:

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Brian Earl Spilner said:

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Well SMCI has certainly humbled me. Had been having way too good of a year with TNA.

Stopped out at $390, down 30%, wiped out the vast majority of my TNA gains in my Roth account in about two weeks.

Gonna be rotating a bunch of that into TNA, TQQQ, and SOXL as we continue to fall.

SMCI re-entry currently set at $355 for a smaller number of shares.

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Still with the triple leverage, Brian?



By the way, as I think you know, these are my 3 favorite choices for buying put hedges. Sold some of the SOXL and TQQQs today.

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Heineken-Ashi said:

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SMCI - It's been a wild ride since late last year. Before the turn of the year boom, I was looking for $100 in more of a measured correction off the August 2023 high. Instead, it was more of a sideways consolidation and ProgN nailed it to the upside, informing everyone here along the way. But like many stocks that go "too far too fast", the correction that never came tends to make the next seem much worse. And here we are. Choppy down initially into the $600's, choppy back up to $1,000 but below the high. From there, we have five pretty clear waves down. All of that encompassing a 3-wave abc correction pattern. Because the initial move off the high was only a 3-wave move down in April, and because this most recent move was 5-waves down, those happenings make it clear that is a corrective move, meaning that once this current downside structure completes, if it hasn't already, I don't see this just tearing off to massive new lows immediately. For that to be the case, the initial move down off the 2024 high into April would have needed to be a 5-wave pattern, and it wasn't. It "should" get a sizeable bounce soon. So what to expect next?

To start, I'm not sold it has bottomed, though I will be surprised if it gets lower than $375. The reason is that the first fib retracement level of the last 5-wave move up comes in at $379. That also happens to be within a dollar of the level where the C wave of this 3-wave pattern from the high equals 161.8% of the A wave, the golden ratio, and a very common landing place for C waves. Not shown on the chart below is the weekly 144 fib number EMA at $375. Just far too much confluence there between $375 and $380 to not be significant support. But this is the stock market we are dealing with, so I never assume a play is dead until the whistle is blown.

But if I am assuming it's either bottomed or is about to, I see two potential paths.

The one that would catch the most people offsides is the green path, where it makes a V shaped recovery, gives some back, and then goes higher into earnings. This could terminate anywhere between the high $600's and low $900's, though the most confluence with EMA's and other indicators is in the $700's. If you were to see that take shape, I'd use it as an opportunity to lessen the load and wait to see if it can hold a support level. Because if not, new lows would then be ripe as a possibility heading into an election.

The other possibility is more of a drawn-out path shown in yellow, likely to be a choppier path, with the same resistance levels, just likely taking through end of year or early next year and giving you a Christmas rally to celebrate before it fails to new lows.

The point here is, I'm expecting the next move to be an upward correction in a longer drawn, larger degree correction that could ultimately revisit the 2023 lows. It certainly doesn't have to be though. What would I look for to turn me bullish? I'd have to see a clear 5-wave impulsive move with little overlap into the $800-$900's and possibly even past $1,000. If so, I'd be looking to the next corrective pullback to enter my longs for new ATH's, with solid R/R between target and stop level. As of now, the move off the low this week is ugly and choppy which is what leads me to believe it's not quite done.

As far as my timed targets system, I don't have anything reliable in either direction right now except one that goes out over a year, and it's a lower target. The lack of reliable targets is also what is leading me to sitting and watching with no position. If we do get $380 or lower, I'll likely wait for signs of bottom to grab 100 shares with a stop just below that bottom. It should be fairly easy to make decent money if that lower range can hold in the coming days to weeks, even if it's not the most ideal path upward. If $375 breaks, even though it will show as massively oversold, I'll be staying away, as it will be beyond any support levels leaving it wide open to do just about anything. And I don't like purely gambling.

I know many of you don't care for Elliott Wave, and many others simply don't understand it, the labels, or the lingo. Feel free to ask questions. I'm not predicting anything here. I'm merely laying out what seems to be the most probable scenarios. This is where Elliott Wave shines. As a template that shows you support and resistance and potential targets along the way. But just because you have a blueprint doesn't mean it's smart to start buying materials. The place to enter for the most consistent gains is during a Wave 2 or the earliest stages of a 3rd wave, as the 3rd wave is where the money rolls in. You can see proof of that late last year on my chart.

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AgEng06 said:

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You're just trying to get him to talk about her again so you can invoke Rule #1. Smart...

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EnronAg said:

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jeez, what the heck happened to PATH...thought everything in the ER and guidance yesterday was strong...getting smoked today...

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