Might sound like a broken record here, but I finally have full clarity on OXY after months of feeling like.. "huh". I previously had a triangle already completed and was tracking a 5th wave overlapping move up to new highs. When I say "5th wave overlapping", I mean an "ending diagonal". ED's are moves that happen when the previous bullish move went too far too fast, or the preceding correction got too deep. Either way, there just isn't much upside left.. likely because of fundamental limitations on the company, so the bulls successfully push it up higher for a final move but have to fight deep sells from the bears on the way.. hence the "choppy" outlook.
That scenario was the best I could do given the data and information available at the time. Turns out, the triangle had one more leg in it, as oil prices weren't able to find bullishness yet. But now, finally, a trend channel has cleanly emerged with fib confluence that would have the 5th wave make a measured move roughly following the same trajectory as the 1st and 3rd waves, and likely in much more impulsive fashion.
When you see a Darvas box, you have to understand that it's nothing more than a very complicated correction. It's a clear as day sign that neither bulls nor bears can grab hold of the wheel. Every time it goes up it meets resistance, and every time it comes down, it meets support. Multiple times in a clearly defined range. In Elliott Wave, Darvas boxes are nothing more than B waves (2nd leg of a 3-wave counter-trend move) or 4th waves (correction off a bullish move and consolidation above support before the final move). And this one makes way more sense as a 4, even if it looks ugly. We now have clear support with the extended bottom trendline of the triangle. You don't get much better R/R than this IMO.
Just keep in mind, if this plays out, it's a finality move in the trend off the COVID lows. A large drop will be expected to follow. But if you're not buying or adding here, with very clear stop at $55 range (and you can even give it a little bit lower as "e" waves of triangles tend to "overthrow" or "underthrow" the trendlines.. though this one as of now is an exact hit) and targeting $80-$115, you are out of your mind. There's so little to lose and so much to gain in an industry that has been depressed on a price basis for nearly two full years, yet hasn't broken any support and hasn't been able to get any follow through to the downside for bears. I said a week or so ago that I might be turning bearish on O&G plays. Not out of the woods yet, but I'm starting to pucker back up long looking with the way some of the charts are looking.
If oil and gas prices are going to go up, I want to be making enough returns off of them that I outperform the losses I incur at the pump.
Unrelated to OXY, but if you haven't locked in your energy bill for multiple years at these low nat gas prices, what are you doing? I secured a 3-year plan a couple weeks ago where no amount of usage will see me paying more than 13c per KWH. Slightly higher than my previous 1-year bill, but low enough that I can sit back for a while and not worry about re-inflation.
www.powertochoose.org. Doesn't matter who the company is. They all just service Reliant's delivery, attempting to make their bank off the arbitrage in prices between the weeds. And prices are even lower now than when I booked.
That scenario was the best I could do given the data and information available at the time. Turns out, the triangle had one more leg in it, as oil prices weren't able to find bullishness yet. But now, finally, a trend channel has cleanly emerged with fib confluence that would have the 5th wave make a measured move roughly following the same trajectory as the 1st and 3rd waves, and likely in much more impulsive fashion.
When you see a Darvas box, you have to understand that it's nothing more than a very complicated correction. It's a clear as day sign that neither bulls nor bears can grab hold of the wheel. Every time it goes up it meets resistance, and every time it comes down, it meets support. Multiple times in a clearly defined range. In Elliott Wave, Darvas boxes are nothing more than B waves (2nd leg of a 3-wave counter-trend move) or 4th waves (correction off a bullish move and consolidation above support before the final move). And this one makes way more sense as a 4, even if it looks ugly. We now have clear support with the extended bottom trendline of the triangle. You don't get much better R/R than this IMO.
Just keep in mind, if this plays out, it's a finality move in the trend off the COVID lows. A large drop will be expected to follow. But if you're not buying or adding here, with very clear stop at $55 range (and you can even give it a little bit lower as "e" waves of triangles tend to "overthrow" or "underthrow" the trendlines.. though this one as of now is an exact hit) and targeting $80-$115, you are out of your mind. There's so little to lose and so much to gain in an industry that has been depressed on a price basis for nearly two full years, yet hasn't broken any support and hasn't been able to get any follow through to the downside for bears. I said a week or so ago that I might be turning bearish on O&G plays. Not out of the woods yet, but I'm starting to pucker back up long looking with the way some of the charts are looking.
If oil and gas prices are going to go up, I want to be making enough returns off of them that I outperform the losses I incur at the pump.
Unrelated to OXY, but if you haven't locked in your energy bill for multiple years at these low nat gas prices, what are you doing? I secured a 3-year plan a couple weeks ago where no amount of usage will see me paying more than 13c per KWH. Slightly higher than my previous 1-year bill, but low enough that I can sit back for a while and not worry about re-inflation.
www.powertochoose.org. Doesn't matter who the company is. They all just service Reliant's delivery, attempting to make their bank off the arbitrage in prices between the weeds. And prices are even lower now than when I booked.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
