I believe that we are in the throes of what could be a significant correction. I'm not selling POWL, SMCI or any other of the ones I've previously posted because they're solid.

If anyone is using margin, you might want to consider getting off of it.

They've been in a war for a while. The media is just finally getting their cue to say the quiet part.

giddings_ag_06 said:

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Looks like MARA's earnings weren't good and lots of misses. Flat after hours. Bitcoin is so weird.

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$148M of their $200M loss was due to accounting adjustment to FMV

Quote:

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Previous accounting for crypto assets required impairment losses for decreases in fair value but prohibited "writing up" crypto assets and recognizing gains for increases in fair value. This treatment prevented certain institutional investors from investing in the asset class. We expect the new standard to make investing in certain crypto assets more appealing to entities that prepare GAAP financial statements, given the accounting will better reflect the underlying economics of the crypto investments.

Calendar year-end companies will have one year after the final rules are released to prepare to implement them for fiscal years beginning after December 15, 2024. However, a company can voluntarily early adopt the new guidance in any interim or annual period for which financial statements have not been issued (such adoption is required to be reflected as of the beginning of the fiscal year).

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New FASB guidance on accounting for crypto assets | Deloitte US

They have 20k BTC and are not selling them. And they are guiding to some of the highest hash rate in the game by year end. If BTC engages the next bull run, MARA is going to fly.

This earnings was nothing but adopting the new accounting measures. I've removed my stop (not recommeding that, just my personal strategy), and am prepared to buy more if it comes down to $16 or lower. And if we get $10 again, I might 5x my position.

I think I can narrow NVDA down to two likely paths, yellow being my current alternate as the bullish path barely leads right now. As always, please don't pay mind to the timing on the chart. It's mostly illustrative.



A. Reverse head and shoulders formed today with a 2nd wave reversal. Needs to take out yesterday's high, then get through $130, and then get through $140. After that, it can't cross back below $121.50 if it wants a chance at $150.

B. 2 of the 3 waves in place for the bearish count. Can play out a multitude of ways as B waves of any type are the most unpredictable and chaotic as bulls and bears duke it out punch for punch. As long as the next move is below ATH, this can still be setting up a longer term drop. Ideal path for this count is butt its head on bottom of upper supply zone at $130 and then reverse down rather sharply below $120. Should this reverse down lower, anything from $75-$100 is on the table for next lower landing spot with high $80's to low $90's most likely at this point in time.

Of course, it could do something completely different than all of this. As I've said, corrections are hard to predict. I'm just laying out the cleanest version of what appears to be the two most probable paths. Market rarely chooses "clean" though, as evidenced by today's overall action. Know the pivot zones.

I will say this.. if NVDA can't make a new high and drops below $100 after another move up above yesterday's high, chances increase significantly that a long term top has been struck. The downward waves I'm showing are only the first two phases of what's likely a 3-4 phase correction in this case, each new phase a larger degree move.

Part of me wants this to be the bearish case, as price would fully reset probably between election and early next year and setup a massive 1-2 year bull phase for a significantly higher top.

I am on the sideline, but if tomorrow starts up, I might throw in with a stop at today's low for a nice R/R.

And why do I keep focusing on NVDA day after day? Because this one stock has been the coal fueling the titanic. If it engages full bear, so will the rest of the market. And while a major correction in this one will feel painful, the rest of the market doesn't have the insanely bullish fundamentals of NVDA. It can get real real bad real fast.

Stay on your toes. Remove your bias. Trade the market in front of you, not the want you want it to be. Wait for confirmation that something was legitimately in a dip before buying the dip. The biggest mistake I see in share buying is people who think they are layering into something only to look up in a massive hole. YOU DONT HAVE TO BOTTOM CATCH. It's far better to stay nimble and wait for confirmation. What's better.. making a 36% return in a couple months on NVDA shares at the risk of a 50% drop? Or making a 20% return after confirmation with a strategic stop that only risks 5%? I know which one I pick every single time.

TheVarian said:

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Looks like it's about to get worse too

https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/intel-cuts-15000-jobs-more-than-it-expected-to-add-with-chips-act-funding/

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Don't stress over INTC laying off people or axing their dividend. They should've done that a longtime ago. That company has been hot garbage for quite awhile. Everyone is more surprised it took them this long to make the decision that they should've made a few years ago. That said, other solid companies making cuts is not to be discounted. Economy is slowing down.

hedge said:

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A junior in college on Wall Street Bets today bought $700K of $INTC Intel at $30 a share with their Grandmother’s inheritance money.

He’s down $150K after hours on $INTC falling 20%. pic.twitter.com/dXoFbptDZo

— amit (@amitisinvesting) August 1, 2024

Grandma ain't too happy I reckon

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I find that more depressing instead of humorous. He was gambling (guessing) with money that he never earned and betrayed the person who worked for it and believed in him. I doubt he could tell you anything of significance about INTC other than that they make microchips and their stock symbol. He didn't have to work for that gracious gift from his grandma and his arrogance flushed her trust down the toilet. I have zero doubt that he didn't learn a damned thing and will trade that gift to zero and then say 'WTF, it's all rigged'. He's only shown the world that his an ungrateful ****ing idiot. His dad should beat the **** out of him, imo.

ProgN said:

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hedge said:

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A junior in college on Wall Street Bets today bought $700K of $INTC Intel at $30 a share with their Grandmother’s inheritance money.

He’s down $150K after hours on $INTC falling 20%. pic.twitter.com/dXoFbptDZo

— amit (@amitisinvesting) August 1, 2024

Grandma ain't too happy I reckon

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I find that more depressing instead of humorous. He was gambling (guessing) with money that he never earned and betrayed the person who worked for it and believed in him. I doubt he could tell you anything of significance about INTC other than that they make microchips and their stock symbol. He didn't have to work for that gracious gift from his grandma and his arrogance flushed her trust down the toilet. I have zero doubt that he didn't learn a damned thing and will trade that gift to zero and then say 'WTF, it's all rigged'. He's only shown the world that his an ungrateful ****ing idiot. His dad should beat the **** out of him, imo.

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It's only a loss if you sell

Dude was gifted 10-20 years off his working age and he's oblivious to the corporate grind. If he didn't learn now, he will soon understand.

ProgN said:

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hedge said:

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A junior in college on Wall Street Bets today bought $700K of $INTC Intel at $30 a share with their Grandmother’s inheritance money.

He’s down $150K after hours on $INTC falling 20%. pic.twitter.com/dXoFbptDZo

— amit (@amitisinvesting) August 1, 2024

Grandma ain't too happy I reckon

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I find that more depressing instead of humorous. He was gambling (guessing) with money that he never earned and betrayed the person who worked for it and believed in him. I doubt he could tell you anything of significance about INTC other than that they make microchips and their stock symbol. He didn't have to work for that gracious gift from his grandma and his arrogance flushed her trust down the toilet. I have zero doubt that he didn't learn a damned thing and will trade that gift to zero and then say 'WTF, it's all rigged'. He's only shown the world that his an ungrateful ****ing idiot. His dad should beat the **** out of him, imo.

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i haven't read anything the kid posted on WSB, but, i would say most of your assumptions here are a bit unfair.

All he had to do was throw that money into a money market for the time being and he'd be making $35k per year while in college. I mean at least put it into Apple or nvidia and not the pile of **** that is Intel

And away...
we...
GO!

Dry powder ready.

SMCI $600 close. $550 possible. Tried to tell yall

Brewmaster said:

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I wanted 5300, we made it close enough, I will start buying some stuff today.

look at last year in August, we had a decent bounce off the 100 day. but continued to sell after the bounce.

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Maybe not a bad strategy, but I will caution that that was in the early stages in an uptrend and this is coming off a major high. Different environments.