I saw you mention $250 earlier. Obviously no crystal ball, I understand that. Do you think it will hit that and have a sell off again, or that it will maintain its price this go around? I may be misinterpreting, but it sounds like you expect it to keep that up and down pattern until they announce a split to stabilize.

It seems to be about a month between earnings to top, and then sell off, if it repeats that cycle.

For those following, if you don't want to ride it up and down again make sure you set your stop losses if it takes off again and learn from my mistakes.

Thanks for your insight, I've learned a lot from following along with just this one play.

Y'all give me some stocks you want updates on so I can chart them tonight. If you don't like EW, say so and I'll focus on other technicals.

ARIS and CLSK are two that I'd love input on. Casual trader here, so ignore if they don't fit the profile of stocks you follow.

ABBV

Towns03 said:

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ARIS and CLSK are two that I'd love input on. Casual trader here, so ignore if they don't fit the profile of stocks you follow.

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CLSK - Let me preface with Bitcoin miners are some of the only instruments that don't necessarily perform to standard EW all the time. Reason being, they are highly dependent on "something else", that something else being BTC. And unlike instruments like SLV (which acts to mirror the price of silver spot) or WEAT (which acts to mimick the action of wheat futures), BTC miners are actual companies with their own fundamentals and own sentiment. So they do their own thing, just within the framework of whether BTC is in bull or bear mode. A lot depends on how much BTC they actually hold, as the value of their balance sheet increases when BTC moves up if they hold a significant amount. And even if they don't and they sell BTC to fund operations, they will be more profitable if BTC is going up. So they each have their own inctracies while depending on BTC.

All of that to say, I actually wasn't very bullish on miners, and I still really am not. Their charts just don't exude the confidence I mentioned that I rely on to tell me whether to jump in or not. The counts are not clean and most of them look to need some decent corrections before looking clean again.



On this one, I was expecting a drop to the $10 region which is the typical 76.4% extension level that 4th waves usually bottom at. But this thing has just continued to consolidate sideways since it last topped. The thing is though, despite how wonky it looks, my preferred target overhead is from the all time chart with this entire structure being a large ABC 3-wave move up. And the C wave inside of a 3-wave move is always a 5-wave move. So for that orange 100% target overhead to get hit, we would need this wave to extend BEYOND the typical 5th wave landing spot at the 176.4% extension level. And when expecting an extension in a wave, it is nice if the preceding corrective wave (Wave 4 in this case) consolidates higher than the typical spot, which this one has so far.

So looking forward, I'd really like to see this break through resistance and start a very swift move up that could point us to that overhead higher target. But I've left the target box not only covering the typical 176.4% extension level, but also the 161.8% level, as the golden ratio can very often tend to be a magnet (lol, I forgot tp move the green target box down to the 161.8%, but just imagine it going down to there).

The danger here is if support breaks, in this case the pink line under the current consolidation pattern. And I've even placed a pivot zone covering $13.50 - $15.00 as key support. The first reason being that I bought puts a couple weeks back based on a weekly ichimoku cloud reversal that seemed high probability, with the target for that being anywhere between $5 and $8. So below that pivot, and this could drop significantly. If you saw my posts over the last week about the cloud reversal pattern, I've found they happen about 65% of the time. So it's a threat until we make a new high, or get 22 weeks into the future from about 3 weeks ago.

Another thing that gives me pause, is that this current consolidation is not usually typical of a beginning bullish structure within a bullish wave. It's actually EXTREMELY typical for a 4th wave. So there's a significant possibility that the 4 I have showing is still playing out. You can see the green retracement levels as the next support should this break the support box.

I know this was a long write up, but I've been watching this one for a long time. The company went from rather uncompetitive to one of the top miners and is still growing quickly. They are one of the ones I am ultimately most bullish on fundamentally within this BTC bull market. And BECAUSE BTC looks to have put in a bottom with next target being $100k+, I went ahead and jumped in on this one because I didn't want to miss out. But breaking that support box will see me selling my shares, being put new shares ( I sold $15 puts this week), and profiting off the puts I bought a couple weeks ago, looking for $5-$10 to re-enter. But if support holds and this breaks out, you will have wanted to be in already for max reward. As it moves up, you can use the extension levels on the chart starting with 161.8% as the major resistance and pivot zones.

OXY

$ASTS
$CAT

Towns03 said:

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ARIS and CLSK are two that I'd love input on. Casual trader here, so ignore if they don't fit the profile of stocks you follow.

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Please note - charts like this are not easy to determine a long-term answer to. Just keep in mind, I'm not a fortune teller and don't know the fundamentals here.



What I see is a clear 3-wave correction from 2022-2023. But it's not even a correction. It was a falling knife to new lows. It finally found a bottom. From that, you could maaaaybe outline a 5-wave move standard impulse, but the proportion of the waves just doesn't seem to fit to me. At the same time, it fits a VERY CLEAR 3-wave move. So if the bottom from 2023 was an "initial" move down, (A), then this whole structure off of it would be the (B) wave. B waves are the hardest to predict, but the base expectation is a 3-wave ABC move where C would equal somewhere between 100% and 161.8% the size of the A wave from the bottom of B. So that's what I've outlined. From the A top, it then nearly retraced all of itself. This provives me further confirmation that this is a 3-wave upward structure off the low, because 5-wave impulsive moves usually retrace 38.2% to 61.8% of their Wave 1. So the fact that the end of 2023 got so deep confirms to me that the initial move off the low was not a 1, but an A. Off of that December 2023 B low, we got an initial move up, a common retracement, and then an explosion higher. That explosion IS what you look for in an impulsive move. So that tells me we are clearly in the C wave since C's are 5-wave structure finishing moves.

Now, I have this as topped in the primary green count. The third wave got way higher than the typical 138.2% - 161.8% extension level target. And I can make out fractal 5-wave moves inside of it which is what you have to have for a 5-wave impulse. I'm not fully excited about the 5th wave though, but it technically works. I then have an initial move off the Wave 5 of C of (B) top that held within the bullish channel. So nothing for sure broken yet. And we've ridden the bottom of the channel back up to the previous high. This is where things get tricky. Notice my yellow count. This assumes that the third wave went even higher and that the recent top was that wave. If so, that channel CANNOT break. It's an ALT count right now, but is certainly possible. And I'd like to see a big earnings move to the 161.8% orange extension of green A from green B for the higher top. But because it hasn't made a new high and the channel looks to have marginally broke, I favor an earnings selloff taking this down to, near, or below that thick red ultimate support level, a level that can't break for any bullish setup to go above previous ATH before a new low comes.

I wish I could tell you to hold for earnings. But I have to advise caution here. If my primary count is correct, I'm looking for a strong 5-wave decline down to the low to mid teens. Notice I didn't say to sell. But to be cautious. Earnings could rip this. But to me, it could legitimately go either way. Watch that channel closely in LOG mode. A break below it will likely see $13's again rather quickly, and possibly lower. This could just be looking for the yellow 4th wave bottom, but I can't rely on that. And why would you hold for that? You'd take your profits here and buy back if it bottoms above the red line. I'd hate to miss earnings upside, but I'd hate it more if it sold off and I had to take losses or become a bag holder. You could also consider selling calls leading into earnings if the channel hasn't broken, it hasn't gotten above $17.30, and the calls have decent value and volume. Right now, when I zoom in, I don't see anything nefarious. But that doesn't mean it won't develop. Caution.

Ok, spent way too much time on this two. I'll get to the rest by the end of the weekend. Maybe not in as much detail, but I'll do my best. I will say, I'm in OXY. I don't expect it to go crazy, but I am generally bullish.

Remember when I mentioned that bail out will not be a thing in the future, but bails ins will? Where instead of the bank getting a lifeline from the FED by stealing from the taxpayers, all deposits in the bank are essentially converted to shares that are Un-exercisable until the bank is made whole again (and you have lost of years of opportunity cost even if you do get your money back).

Check out Canada. It will be coming to them. Probably sooner than they think.

Nations quietly passed Bail-In laws in 2017.
Governments won't be bailing out banks this time, you will be. 🤫 https://t.co/mBGl8mnsJB pic.twitter.com/LZBZnbZkYm

— Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) July 27, 2024

ProgN said:

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No one has a crystal ball and never sure things when it comes to the market, but POWL has built a f'ing launchpad and primed for a big move. I have zero doubt that they'll beat expectations. My only stress is if they beat expectations by enough, but I'm not selling a share and I've bought a significant position in it. I'll either get castrated if I'm wrong, or I'll be the Southpark nuts in a wheelbarrow guy at HEB.

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If it's the latter, it sounds like you every other Saturday during the year.

FishrCoAg said:

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ABBV

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I've charted this for a while, but the long term is going to take some time to put a clean chart together. There's just a lot of fibs and trendlines. Let me just say, this looks like a long term topping pattern to me. Like all time chart long term. So I'll show you the current action as the long term doesn't add too much additional context and would take forever to break down unless you understand complicated EW charts.



This is in a diagonal upward move going back many year. A diagonal happens when bullish sentiment is starting to exhaust itself, so instead of the lightning bolt move, you get more of a choppy overlapping type of move. Within the diagonal, 2023 was the bottom of the (4)th wave. Diagonals mostly happen in clean 3-wave zigzag moves. That means that each wave breaks down into a-b-c, where "c" is expected to reach the 100% extension of "a" from the bottom of "b". And within 3-wave moves, the a can either be a 5-wave move or a 3-wave move. We have 3 here leading to the larger A. But C's are always 5-wave moves. And that is taking shape perfectly needing only a single extension in either the third or the fifth to reach the 100% target.

EW gobblygook aside.. this should hit $200 range, correct a bit, and then have one more good earnings into its final top around $215. Can it extend higher? Sure. A top is never in until support is broken. But too many fib levels line up around a tumultous time (election) in our country. The timeline here represents a clean zigzag where the proportion of each wave is uniform. It DOES NOT have to be that clean. This could top sooner, and it could take longer. The key is the price.

The big question is, do you want to hang on past $200, hoping it actually does get that one more high with a crazy election a short time away? The reason I ask, is because this can get back to $150 after topping VERY qucikly. $125 is on the table, and a true crash scenario could open up a wide range under $100. I think this will be a much longer correction, but you just never know. It will be a correction of the ALL TIME chart. So keep that in mind.

Only immediate caution I would advise, is that even though this looks like the 5-wave move I was expecting off the May low, it's only 3 waves so far. Nothing is guaranteed, even at ATH's. A retrace can have its second leg make a new high and third leg go lower. So while this is set up perfectly for at least $200, I can't guarantee it. I can't guarantee that this won't fall back near $150 and THEN go for the all time top. I'm just not in the game of saying what WILL happen. Only what looks probable based on structure I'm familiar with.

Thanks

Heineken-Ashi said:

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Remember when I mentioned that bail out will not be a thing in the future, but bails ins will?

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This is what "The Great Taking" was all about, H-A.

There is a "protected class" which will be made whole immediately, while average depositors are told to pound sand or get to the wayyyy back of the line. Kind of puts a pit in your stomach.

CW2011 said:

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OXY

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This has been a long consolidation.



The initial move off COVID was fast and large. Then a 3-wave consolidation followed by another relatively swift move up. From the consolidation point, it formed a pretty nice 5-wave setup and did everything perfectly. It actually extended a couple fib levels, getting to the 200% level. From there, I have the action since as a completed triangle. And boy did it go sideways. Some would call it a darvas box. Doesn't matter. Unless it breaks below $40, it can still be a Wave 4. I could count it other ways, but "flat" corrective moves where you have 5 touch points and the legs break into 3 waves is pretty classic triangle. We then broke above the triangle and have since come back into the wedge. I have the move off of Wave 4 as the beginning of an ending diagonal 5-wave move for Wave 5. Meaning I expect some chop as it melts up. There will be times when it seems to run well. But the retracements are also expected to be large which would shake many out. Ending diagonals happen when the previous move went too far too fast, or the preceding correction didn't get as deep as expected. We had both, as Wave 4 didn't even correct 3 by 38.2%. What I'm saying is, based on everything to date, what is playing out is actually fairly common.

Support is easy. Below $55 breaks the wedge. Now it's possible the triangle maybe isn't over and there could be a final move down. So I likely won't let $55 stop me out. I'll allow a bit of an "overthrow" just in case. But not too much. $52 is likely my stop.

The $71 range previous high is first resistance, with the $80 range being first major resistance should this make a move up. As that's the 100% C=A level of the entire move from the COVID bottom. So I will probably take significant profits there, if not all. If we do find a higher low support after that, I'll probably buy back in for one final run to ideal target $92. Any extensions above that will be considered icing on the cake.

EliteZags said:

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Heineken-Ashi said:

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ProgN has actual institutional trading experience and is phenomenal with fundamentals. We've joked that we should start a service where he analyzes the fundamentals and I analyze the technicals, and when we are on the same page it's likely dynamite

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subscribed

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Well ProgN and I both have kids to raise. So the price is $5,000 per month. Glad we can count on you

TTUArmy said:

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Heineken-Ashi said:

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Remember when I mentioned that bail out will not be a thing in the future, but bails ins will?

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This is what "The Great Taking" was all about, H-A.

There is a "protected class" which will be made whole immediately, while average depositors are told to pound sand or get to the wayyyy back of the line. Kind of puts a pit in your stomach.

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The best way to not be in a plane crash is to not be in the plane.

So the best way to not get screwed in a dire situation with a bank blowing up is to not have money with a bank blowing up. And I bet there will be many over the next decade. Know what your bank's exposure to CRE is. Know their exposure to interest rates. If you have A LOT of money, maybe diversify it. Don't expect FDIC to cover you. They can maybe cover deposits in a handful of banks. A bigger event would leave them insolvent.

CC09LawAg said:

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I saw you mention $250 earlier. Obviously no crystal ball, I understand that. Do you think it will hit that and have a sell off again, or that it will maintain its price this go around? I may be misinterpreting, but it sounds like you expect it to keep that up and down pattern until they announce a split to stabilize.

It seems to be about a month between earnings to top, and then sell off, if it repeats that cycle.

For those following, if you don't want to ride it up and down again make sure you set your stop losses if it takes off again and learn from my mistakes.

Thanks for your insight, I've learned a lot from following along with just this one play.

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Quote:

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Let's focus on the bolded sections from your post.

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Quote:

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I saw you mention $250 earlier

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A) If they do what they've done for the last 5-6qtrs in a row and crush on all 3 metrics, then this thing is coiled for a potential explosive move. If POWL is in the $150-165ish area before their ER Tuesday AH, they are setup to potentially print near their ATH of $209ish. I posted the $250/shr possibility because of 2 possible catalysts.

1) If the hit on all cylinders and spike up hard, then the shorts could be forced to cover because their small float. Current short interest is 16.89% and that's a ton of potential buying pressure. Shorts are not very bright and they look at how far a stock has moved and say that's too much and don't do any fundamental DD. Doubtful that they will, but if they use that lump 3ft above their ass this weekend they should cover before the ER report. If POWL comes through, it could trigger a short squeeze and that could take it to $250. That's speculation, not a prediction.

2) If POWL crushes expectations and were to declare a stock split, which they need/should do then that's another huge catalyst. This is also speculation and not a reason to buy it expecting it.

3) If it spikes after earnings over $200, then I'll book profits unless they declare a split or there's a short squeeze. It's not because they're not a solid company, I'm a swing trader and catch waves to compound my ROI. Buy/hold investors don't have to do that because POWL's fundamentals are strong and they will be rewarded, they just have to be able to stomach the peaks and valleys on the ride.

Quote:

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It seems to be about a month between earnings to top, and then sell off,

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This is when you should know technical analysis and don't over think what the indicators are showing you. If they don't declare a split, and especially if there is a short squeeze and shoots into orbit, then it will show you it's running out of steam, so book the profit.

Quote:

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set your stop losses if it takes off again

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Everyone makes their own decisions but if you already own it and have stop loss orders on POWL, then I would make sure they're for only active during the trading day and not during extended hours. The reason why is, even if they smash expectations it might spike down hard due to their small float. It'd suck having your shares fall victim to a stop loss raid AH and it goes higher the next day. JMO

I re-entered POWL & SMCI heavy on Tuesday in the $140ish area, and SMCI in the $790-800ish range, Obviously, I didn't anticipate the worst selloff in over a year happening less than 24hrs later or I'd have waited. I know that I've put the DD into these two and I was not too proud not be in them because they hadn't hit my PT to buy, so I paid up for a seat. God has a sense of humor though. Only 'I bleed Maroon' has the gift of nailing the top of a move before the technicals signal it on a 5 min intraday chart. He nailed it within 2 mins, . Just f'ing with you man, but damn that was some funny *****

I assume investments like a taxable account or rolling a 401K into a Traditional Roth would be safe at any given bank since thr investments themselves are in ETFs, stocks, bonds...etc and not woth a bank that blows up

jamey said:

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I assume investments like a taxable account or rolling a 401K into a Traditional Roth would be safe at any given bank since thr investments themselves are in ETFs, stocks, bonds...etc

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Not speaking for Heine, but investments at firms are usually protected by SIPC which has a higher threshold than FDIC.

Hypnoklown1986 said:

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$ASTS
$CAT

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ASTS - They have half of their assets in cash and the other half in property/plant/equipment. But they aren't yet profitable and earnings are still expecting a loss, even if less than last quarter. They have a solid chunk of long term debt, but nothing that seems overly crazy. They just have a crazy high operating expense load, and their cash flow seems to be getting worse, not better. Price to sales is 4,041x lol. This is a pure growth stock riding on a high. I haven't googled news on them, so no idea if there was something that sent stock soaring.



What I see is not necessarily clear as day. Best I can make out of it is a pump after IPO in 2021 followed by a convulted 3-wave move to the lows. And I have the (C) wave of that move as an ending diagonal. That's important, because ED's reverse back to their point of origin almost every time, and usually within half the time it took them to happen. And this one did it VERY quickly. Think of ED's as choppy non-impulsive moves that melt price in the direction of the primary trend, in this case down. But as it does so, it's like pushing a beach ball slowly deeper and deeper under the water. Eventually, the pressure just explodes it up.

Coming off the bottom, this does look like an impulsive move up. I could dig in and fashion 5 waves, but it's not really important here. I think this can get back to ATH if it hasn't already topped, but I'd start to be careful here if long. There's multiple ways I can project it forward and I'm just not going to, because truly anything is possible from new highs to new lows moving forward. I drew the yellow line straight across from IPO. It used that line as S&R multiple times. I would use it as support. If it looks like a top has formed, draw a fib retracement from bottom to top in LOG mode with 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%, and 76.4% retracement levels showing. Use those as your supports below the yellow line. You can maybe even use the previous gray downtrend as a support level. You want it to correct between 38.2%-61.8%. If so, we could have a Wave 1 top and Wave 2 bottom, looking for a consolidation and build up before finally going higher to new highs in Wave 3. Below 61.8% and something else is likely happening and it's best to just align your money with something more probable.

Best guess? I think earnings causes a sell off of some sort. No confidence in that statement, it just seems inevitable given the speed of the run up.

jamey said:

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I assume investments like a taxable account or rolling a 401K into a Traditional Roth would be safe at any given bank since thr investments themselves are in ETFs, stocks, bonds...etc and not woth a bank that blows up

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I'm really not that knowledgeable on stuff like that unfortunately. But I wouldn't consider anything safe that has significant exposure to a stock market that has crash potential. And bonds aren't safe long term either. I think we see a bond market crash in the next 5 years. I know there's an FDIC type institution that is specific for brokerages. Just don't know enough about it to speak with any confidence or detail. Would suggest looking into it on your own. Sorry man.

Edit, Prog beat me. SPIC. Look into that.

Just know, they are no safer than FDIC or the FED. All have massive risk.

Much appreciated. We will see what happens next week!

Hypnoklown1986 said:

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$ASTS
$CAT

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CAT - Another one with a long history. Just going to show off the Great Recession low. Just know that the orange lines over head are potential targets for the all time chart.



I have this in a long term impulse, currently working on a 4th wave within an ending diagonal larger (5)th wave. You can see that there are multiple larger degrees this is within, and I have them all hitting pretty standard fib targets. Don't put a lot of weight on the longer term stuff, as the levels and timing can change as more data presents. Just know that I'd be surprised if this sees a new high before selling off lower. I'm expecting $270 range before bottoming and starting another move into next year to significant new highs.

These long term charts are much harder though as a lot can play out. I only know one person who was expecting a massive COVID drop in the market, and they weren't expecting COVID, just that the market was primed for major correction between late 2019 and early 2020. Point is, nobody knows what the future holds. But this is a very standard outline projection of a long term bull market structure, trying to project the next moves based on what the chart shows as most likely.

And don't get caught up on huge prices on the chart. Splits will handle that over time. A 1:4 at $400 would keep the chart the same but put price at $100, and that ultimate top at $400.

Edit: I'll throw up the long term chart. You can perceive it a lot of ways. This is my best guess..

Thank you sir.

@ Heineken-Ashi: regarding ASTS.

The reason they popped recently is because of news that their 5 BlueBird satellites finished assembly and are or will be en route to FL for launch by SpaceX.

They announce earnings 8/14.

Interesting. I'll look deeper into forward looking fundamentals.

More Middle East bs. Interesting to see what happens.

Deadpool & Wolverine is good and funny.