Towns03 said:
ARIS and CLSK are two that I'd love input on. Casual trader here, so ignore if they don't fit the profile of stocks you follow.
CLSK - Let me preface with Bitcoin miners are some of the only instruments that don't necessarily perform to standard EW all the time. Reason being, they are highly dependent on "something else", that something else being BTC. And unlike instruments like SLV (which acts to mirror the price of silver spot) or WEAT (which acts to mimick the action of wheat futures), BTC miners are actual companies with their own fundamentals and own sentiment. So they do their own thing, just within the framework of whether BTC is in bull or bear mode. A lot depends on how much BTC they actually hold, as the value of their balance sheet increases when BTC moves up if they hold a significant amount. And even if they don't and they sell BTC to fund operations, they will be more profitable if BTC is going up. So they each have their own inctracies while depending on BTC.
All of that to say, I actually wasn't very bullish on miners, and I still really am not. Their charts just don't exude the confidence I mentioned that I rely on to tell me whether to jump in or not. The counts are not clean and most of them look to need some decent corrections before looking clean again.
On this one, I was expecting a drop to the $10 region which is the typical 76.4% extension level that 4th waves usually bottom at. But this thing has just continued to consolidate sideways since it last topped. The thing is though, despite how wonky it looks, my preferred target overhead is from the all time chart with this entire structure being a large ABC 3-wave move up. And the C wave inside of a 3-wave move is always a 5-wave move. So for that orange 100% target overhead to get hit, we would need this wave to extend BEYOND the typical 5th wave landing spot at the 176.4% extension level. And when expecting an extension in a wave, it is nice if the preceding corrective wave (Wave 4 in this case) consolidates higher than the typical spot, which this one has so far.
So looking forward, I'd really like to see this break through resistance and start a very swift move up that could point us to that overhead higher target. But I've left the target box not only covering the typical 176.4% extension level, but also the 161.8% level, as the golden ratio can very often tend to be a magnet (lol, I forgot tp move the green target box down to the 161.8%, but just imagine it going down to there).
The danger here is if support breaks, in this case the pink line under the current consolidation pattern. And I've even placed a pivot zone covering $13.50 - $15.00 as key support. The first reason being that I bought puts a couple weeks back based on a weekly ichimoku cloud reversal that seemed high probability, with the target for that being anywhere between $5 and $8. So below that pivot, and this could drop significantly. If you saw my posts over the last week about the cloud reversal pattern, I've found they happen about 65% of the time. So it's a threat until we make a new high, or get 22 weeks into the future from about 3 weeks ago.
Another thing that gives me pause, is that this current consolidation is not usually typical of a beginning bullish structure within a bullish wave. It's actually EXTREMELY typical for a 4th wave. So there's a significant possibility that the 4 I have showing is still playing out. You can see the green retracement levels as the next support should this break the support box.
I know this was a long write up, but I've been watching this one for a long time. The company went from rather uncompetitive to one of the top miners and is still growing quickly. They are one of the ones I am ultimately most bullish on fundamentally within this BTC bull market. And BECAUSE BTC looks to have put in a bottom with next target being $100k+, I went ahead and jumped in on this one because I didn't want to miss out. But breaking that support box will see me selling my shares, being put new shares ( I sold $15 puts this week), and profiting off the puts I bought a couple weeks ago, looking for $5-$10 to re-enter. But if support holds and this breaks out, you will have wanted to be in already for max reward. As it moves up, you can use the extension levels on the chart starting with 161.8% as the major resistance and pivot zones.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)