Do I need to watch a recap of the other Deadpool's before I see it?
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Last: 3 min ago by Heineken-Ashi
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backintexas2013 said:
More Middle East bs. Interesting to see what happens.
What's going on?
#BREAKING: 14 israelis dead and more than 20 injured in a rocket impact by Hezbollah, in Majdal Shams, in the occupied Northern Golan Heights.
— Zayed Khan (@thisiszayedkhan) July 27, 2024
These scenes are happening now in israel.#HEZBOLLAH #ısrael #FreePalestine pic.twitter.com/f9IbWtzYQS
Posting for info. Not the idiots hashtags.
Wonder if that is what caused BTc to initially drop, but it's since recovered and green on the day
My guess was the Trump speech had more to do with that but maybe you're right. When was the rocket attack?
Looks like it happened around the same time as Trump was speaking. Not 100% sure though
It will help because you'll pickup on more stuff. There's a lot of cameos in it too.aggiebrad16 said:
Do I need to watch a recap of the other Deadpool's before I see it?
aggiebrad16 said:
Do I need to watch a recap of the other Deadpool's before I see it?
I would say the most important one to see before seeing the new Deadpool is Logan, but it pulls from a lot of previous Marvel movies including some of the Fox ones.
The new one is really really good. Wife and I thoroughly enjoyed it and have been talking about it quite a bit the day after seeing it
I took my boy to the 3D showing this afternoon and we really liked it.bhanacik said:aggiebrad16 said:
Do I need to watch a recap of the other Deadpool's before I see it?
I would say the most important one to see before seeing the new Deadpool is Logan, but it pulls from a lot of previous Marvel movies including some of the Fox ones.
The new one is really really good. Wife and I thoroughly enjoyed it and have been talking about it quite a bit the day after seeing it
Big earnings week and FOMC on Wednesday. SPY expected range for the week is between $533-$555
Are you expecting wild swings again?
I'm not going to post a chart (edit.. I lied, it's hard to make this post with accompanying visuals) because it's fairly complicated right now, but I have to alert everyone here of something. I've been bullish on metals, especially silver. And I think it's either bottomed or will this week with futures roll. But I love looking at fractals from the past. The recent top and correction off of it for silver CAN be something bearish. I've gone back and looked at all patterns from the past that strike me as remotely similar. The main thing I looked for was a daily blow through above the upper Keltner band, followed by a touch of the lower near the 200 day EMA. Most instances of this are bullish. But there's one that's very bearish, and that's 2008. That just so happen to be the last time the FED had raised rates to these levels and held them there for a year to combat inflation. In 2008, after the blow through of the top Keltner and touch of the bottom Keltner, you had one last chance to get out before the 200 day EMA broke and silver came screaming down in a massive drop.
So I'm watching what happens over the next weeks to month closely. I know what I'm looking for, and if I see it, I will selling enough of everything, options and shares, to get all my money back in case this scenario repeats 2008. I expect that to be with Silver at or above $30, roughly $28 for SLV, but too early to tell.
I will alert here if this happens. I just want you to be prepared if I seem to do a sudden 180. After that huge drop, it actually engaged in a massive bullish move over the next 2 years. But with my exposure to options over the next 6 months, there simply wouldn't be enough time to rebound.
This is not me turning bearish. This is me looking at the risk I have and getting prepared for all scenarios. The last thing I want is myself and those who followed to lose money. So I'm trying to consider all possibilities.
So I'm watching what happens over the next weeks to month closely. I know what I'm looking for, and if I see it, I will selling enough of everything, options and shares, to get all my money back in case this scenario repeats 2008. I expect that to be with Silver at or above $30, roughly $28 for SLV, but too early to tell.
I will alert here if this happens. I just want you to be prepared if I seem to do a sudden 180. After that huge drop, it actually engaged in a massive bullish move over the next 2 years. But with my exposure to options over the next 6 months, there simply wouldn't be enough time to rebound.
This is not me turning bearish. This is me looking at the risk I have and getting prepared for all scenarios. The last thing I want is myself and those who followed to lose money. So I'm trying to consider all possibilities.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
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- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
I'd expect a little more volatility Wednesday/Thursday than Monday/Tuesday just due to waiting on the FOMC Wednesday. Also looking for gap fills back up at $553 and $564. Need to push through the ~$549 level first though.
POWL reports Tuesday after hours just as a reminder for those in the stock.
SMCI reports the following week, but it could see some big movement this week with MSFT/AMD Tuesday and Meta/ARM/QCOM Wednesday.
POWL reports Tuesday after hours just as a reminder for those in the stock.
SMCI reports the following week, but it could see some big movement this week with MSFT/AMD Tuesday and Meta/ARM/QCOM Wednesday.
Here's 2008. Red is +4 ATR upper Keltner band. Blue is -4 ATR lower Keltner band. Green is 200 day EMA. Yellow trendline acts as S&R.
Here's current and what it might look like should the same scenario play out.
What would trigger my exit would be a bounce back up above 30, followed by a deep correction of that move back to the low from last week (or this week if it goes a tad lower first). Labeled on the above chart as "a" and "b". IF that were to happen, the next move up would see me exiting enough to get the majority of my money back and likely buying end of the year puts.
Despite the similarities, the way this current structure got to this point, compared to the one in 2008, is a bit different. That one was already well underway and confirmed in its bull market, whereas this one has still yet to launch off its big load up. A second pretty major difference, is that the 2008 pattern happened a year after bond yields started falling (and in turn fed cuts) following a year long FED pause above 5%. This current structure is during the same period that bond yields are startting to fall, and the FED hasn't yet cut.
In 2007 and on, the FED cut 50bps in September, 25bps in October, 25 bps in December, 75 bps in January 08 during an intermeeting (not the usual FOMC) in reaction to stock market selloff (hey man, you aren't helping!), 50 bps in late January 08, 75 bps in March 08, 25 bps in April 08, 50 bps in October 08 at an emergency unscheduled meeting, 50 bps again in October 08, and then 75 bps in December 08.
The silver selloff happened from July 08 through October 08.
So again, we are not yet at the point in time where the macro environment matches. But it doesn't have to. These things aren't as intertwined as you are conditioned to believe. So I'm on alert for this potential scenario to play out, but still optimistic that silver is bullish.
Here's current and what it might look like should the same scenario play out.
What would trigger my exit would be a bounce back up above 30, followed by a deep correction of that move back to the low from last week (or this week if it goes a tad lower first). Labeled on the above chart as "a" and "b". IF that were to happen, the next move up would see me exiting enough to get the majority of my money back and likely buying end of the year puts.
Despite the similarities, the way this current structure got to this point, compared to the one in 2008, is a bit different. That one was already well underway and confirmed in its bull market, whereas this one has still yet to launch off its big load up. A second pretty major difference, is that the 2008 pattern happened a year after bond yields started falling (and in turn fed cuts) following a year long FED pause above 5%. This current structure is during the same period that bond yields are startting to fall, and the FED hasn't yet cut.
In 2007 and on, the FED cut 50bps in September, 25bps in October, 25 bps in December, 75 bps in January 08 during an intermeeting (not the usual FOMC) in reaction to stock market selloff (hey man, you aren't helping!), 50 bps in late January 08, 75 bps in March 08, 25 bps in April 08, 50 bps in October 08 at an emergency unscheduled meeting, 50 bps again in October 08, and then 75 bps in December 08.
The silver selloff happened from July 08 through October 08.
So again, we are not yet at the point in time where the macro environment matches. But it doesn't have to. These things aren't as intertwined as you are conditioned to believe. So I'm on alert for this potential scenario to play out, but still optimistic that silver is bullish.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
Thanks for the update on your thoughts.
Just for some humor.. was looking at 10yr yield futures. I'm sure there was someone out there who thought this exact thing..
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
Thanks for this honest feedback!
Great insight Heineken-Ashi
SMCI go boom. That's what I was looking for Friday! Glad I hung on.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
I am less red on SMCI.
DIS - Holding this channel is the most ideal way to expect a bullish path forward
Zooming in, looks to be $83-$84 range support over the next month.
Zooming in, looks to be $83-$84 range support over the next month.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
Been watching and still thinking of getting in. Is it too late or just playing a short pop?Heineken-Ashi said:
SMCI go boom. That's what I was looking for Friday! Glad I hung on.
Apparently very short.
Ugly reversal right after I posted. $550-$600 range is not off the table yet. If you can stomach a drawdown to there, but don't want to potentially miss out on an earnings boom, now is probably the best time to enter. If you can't stomach the drawdown, put a stop around $685, though no level is explicitly clear right now.AgShaun00 said:Been watching and still thinking of getting in. Is it too late or just playing a short pop?Heineken-Ashi said:
SMCI go boom. That's what I was looking for Friday! Glad I hung on.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
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$83.30 would close the lowest gap on the chart as well, seems like a great entry point on a flash down if we can get itHeineken-Ashi said:
DIS - Holding this channel is the most ideal way to expect a bullish path forward
Zooming in, looks to be $83-$84 range support over the next month.
The R/R would be phenomenalgougler08 said:$83.30 would close the lowest gap on the chart as well, seems like a great entry point on a flash down if we can get itHeineken-Ashi said:
DIS - Holding this channel is the most ideal way to expect a bullish path forward
Zooming in, looks to be $83-$84 range support over the next month.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
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- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
Yeah I just put an alert on if we drop below $84Heineken-Ashi said:The R/R would be phenomenalgougler08 said:$83.30 would close the lowest gap on the chart as well, seems like a great entry point on a flash down if we can get itHeineken-Ashi said:
DIS - Holding this channel is the most ideal way to expect a bullish path forward
Zooming in, looks to be $83-$84 range support over the next month.
MARA and bitcoin don't' look ready either. dirty bull trap
BTC looks very bullish, but I can't ignore the renewed potential for the triangle. This would be dirty. And Support is down at like $60k.Brewmaster said:
MARA and bitcoin don't' look ready either. dirty bull trap
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
call me crazy, but looks like TSLA accumulation. Crazy volume today
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
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PLTM - Hold $8.85 area and $11 could be next by end of September.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
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Using $110 as stop on my NVDA shares acquired at the bottom last week. Below that and a reliable path back up isn't clear with enough pressure down that I'm willing to take a small profit and wait for pre-earnings action to decide if I want to jump back in. Hold that level and I'll still be looking for $120-$130 to exit.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
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Bob Knights Paper Hands
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Hi all. I haven't had much time for posting here, trading, or following the markets closely, but wanted to pass along comments from a long-time friend and more seasoned investor. He thinks there is a decent chance this week we get not so subtle hints at a Sept rate cut. His bull thesis is this drives QQQ back to 500. His bear thesis is if we don't get that hint we may move below Thursday's lows.
Stay safe, everyone.
Stay safe, everyone.
I could see that playing out. But a September cut is already full priced in by SOFR futures, with 1-2 more cuts the rest of the year over halfway priced in. So the market is already fully expecting a September cut as well as chances of more. It's not new info at this point. The equity market reaction to it could certainly go up initially, but there's no indication in historical context that rate cuts, along with falling bond yields and a slowing economy is going to lead to higher stocks. Quite the opposite. But history doesn't have to repeat. Will be an interesting market next 3-4 months that's for sure.Bob Knights Paper Hands said:
Hi all. I haven't had much time for posting here, trading, or following the markets closely, but wanted to pass along comments from a long-time friend and more seasoned investor. He thinks there is a decent chance this week we get not so subtle hints at a Sept rate cut. His bull thesis is this drives QQQ back to 500. His bear thesis is if we don't get that hint we may move below Thursday's lows.
Stay safe, everyone.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
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