One last thing on silver. If you aren't in yet, this could be the last chance. Could it come much lower? Sure. But both structures I'm following just don't seem to point to a more significant deeper drop as highly probable. Here's my primary wave chart. And you have to understand that metals see their biggest extensions in 5th waves which is what I'm showing here. And keep in mind, this is spot silver tradingview supplied chart, NOT SLV. SLV will lag by a little bit.
Silver has been in a very long accumulation. And you can still consider it in that phase, despite the breakout over the faint yellow line. Notice that each smaller degree 1st wave held under or at the accumulation line. I'm counting this as currently working on the smallest degree 4th wave, hoping the bottom is in. But the standard approach once you see a 3rd wave high is to connect 1 and 3 and have the bottom parallel channel line at 2 to project where 4 might end. If 3 comes up short or goes a little deeper or wider, then you connect 2 and 4 and move the top channel line to the top of 3 to project 5. As of now, this has a little more room to come down one more time in a 4th wave. And like I said above, metals (forex and commodities too) tend to extend significantly in 5th waves (while equities tend to extend in 3rd waves - see TSLA 2023-2024.. you know you're in a third when you see a major breakout). You can see that here in proportion to the size of the Wave 1 and Wave 3.To further support that, if you look at the green fib extension, that is measuring the size of circle Wave [1] from the bottom of circle Wave [2]. The common landing zone for the (3)rd wave inside of a larger primary trend is the 100%-123.6% extension levels. To get there, this 5th wave (which completes the (3)rd wave inside of the largest [3]rd wave) would need to extend significantly.
Regarding timing and trajectory, this chart paints a fairly linear and proportional (despite the log scale) path for all of the waves. But if we look at the last time silver really got bullish to a similar extent as what we are expecting, you will find that once it truly takes off, it has the potential to get pretty high pretty fast. So please don't trade based on my timing. It's mostly for illustrative purposes.
The yellow ALT 1 and 2 on the chart are what I've seen others in the EW world projecting. And it could be valid. If Wave 1 is truly the most recent high, then the Wave 3 I am looking to start very soon would likely project higher than I have shown, likely to the $56 level. Something to keep an eye on.
Pretty much all of my positions are $30 calls or under, along with some outright shares purchased in the high teens and low $20's. For me to scrub any bullish potential and start to move towards bearishness, I'd need to see below $22 with below $20 icing the deal.
My bare minimum target for the next move up (the one that I'm expecting between August and September) is $34-$36 area. If we are in September in that area and momentum is slowing, I will likely exit the majority of the September calls leaving a couple runners. And if for some reason the bullishness doesn't start by early September and we are still under $30, I will likely start to roll the September positions to October and November, possibly even December. Once the next high is struck, whenever it happens, I will start to project realistic expectations for the (4)th wave bottom and work towards accumulating mid-year 2025 call positions.
“Give it hell Heinekandle, I’m enjoying it.”
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
