Buying but still got 40k of dry powder.

If TSLA can hold that bottom there can still be a path to $285-$300. Not as likely had it held $225, but still possible.

Brewmaster said:

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SMCI may want the 200 day, 680's. ouch

bigger buy around 10:23 central.

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Lower Keltner band on daily comes in at $600.

Spy bounced off 544. If it goes through it I wonder how much further.

NVDA working down to that $111 target I outlined two weeks ago. Range was down to $106 but it's hard to imagine it dropping that far based on the structure.

Base case right nor for SMCI



We're in the support box. Hold in here, and get through the green box, and something else other than a downward impulse is happening. Through the support box, and any bounce that follows should not be expected to get back above $785.

AAPL - Any lower and the rising lower trendline from April breaks.

MARA gap filled to $21. Let's see if thats a bottom and we get reversal. Have my first position since exiting near the top months ago. Stop is at $19, but that's not scientific. I don't mind losing a little to not get shaken out on a short gamma day. But below that and the bear case starts to pick up potential.

10y vs 2y vs FEDFUNDS

Any lower in bond yields and you might get your first sign that the FED is for sure cutting. 25 bps has already been baked in for September. Another 50bps by year end. Market fully expects cut in September. And bond yields are what's signaling it.

Two most likely paths I see for VXX right now

I've followed this thread for a few years but have never posted on here. I think the dialogue is amazing and I wanted to exchange thoughts on a couple of stocks recommended to me by someone with superior knowledge than me.

ETNB - https://www.89bio.com/ Biopharm company focused on liver disease treatment that apparently has some advanced clinical trials. Institutional investing has surged over the past few quarters, including Blackrock. $31 price target, currently $9.

TRMD - https://www.torm.com/ Oil product tanker company. 14% dividend, but has still had a steady run up to ATH over past 5 years. $41 price target, currently $39.

Any thoughts from you guys would be amazing. I'm not skilled at TA but like to research. I just don't know if these price targets are worth anything since neither have many eyes on them.

Heineken-Ashi said:

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I posted this on July 5th

Quote:

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SMCI - Another break below $750 probably spells short term doom with lower targets anywhere from $375 to $600. But ProgN is right that there is still a chance it can explode higher with $1,500+ absolutely possible. I'm personally not willing to bet on it, as the chart is currently weak. And even if it does happen, the fall from there would likely be harder with the same lower targets.

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Don't step in front of freight train. No need to buy the dip. Wait until it confirms that it was a dip. $600 range has really gained in probability today.

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Wise words, I got stopped out. I can always re-enter later.

I'm eyeing SPY $560 calls for August looking to make 2x-5x on a play back to previous high and maybe one more higher high.

Anyone interested?

JCB97 said:

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I've followed this thread for a few years but have never posted on here. I think the dialogue is amazing and I wanted to exchange thoughts on a couple of stocks recommended to me by someone with superior knowledge than me.

ETNB - https://www.89bio.com/ Biopharm company focused on liver disease treatment that apparently has some advanced clinical trials. Institutional investing has surged over the past few quarters, including Blackrock. $31 price target, currently $9.

TRMD - https://www.torm.com/ Oil product tanker company. 14% dividend, but has still had a steady run up to ATH over past 5 years. $41 price target, currently $39.

Any thoughts from you guys would be amazing. I'm not skilled at TA but like to research. I just don't know if these price targets are worth anything since neither have many eyes on them.

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Welcome to the clubhouse, and don't be shy.

I'll look at them this weekend if that's alright because I'm having a busy week.

Lets ride

tlh3842 said:

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Lets ride

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Not just yet. Ideal entry would be $540 which would be around $1.50 per contract and significantly raise the potential returns.

I'll post when I think it's time to enter.

ProgN said:

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JCB97 said:

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I've followed this thread for a few years but have never posted on here. I think the dialogue is amazing and I wanted to exchange thoughts on a couple of stocks recommended to me by someone with superior knowledge than me.

ETNB - https://www.89bio.com/ Biopharm company focused on liver disease treatment that apparently has some advanced clinical trials. Institutional investing has surged over the past few quarters, including Blackrock. $31 price target, currently $9.

TRMD - https://www.torm.com/ Oil product tanker company. 14% dividend, but has still had a steady run up to ATH over past 5 years. $41 price target, currently $39.

Any thoughts from you guys would be amazing. I'm not skilled at TA but like to research. I just don't know if these price targets are worth anything since neither have many eyes on them.

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Welcome to the clubhouse, and don't be shy.

I'll look at them this weekend if that's alright because I'm having a busy week.

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Thank you! I've owned shares in both, but currently don't own any shares of either.

August 1?

GKrebs17 said:

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August 1?

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No, monthly expiration - 8/16

Heineken-Ashi said:

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I'm eyeing SPY $560 calls for August looking to make 2x-5x on a play back to previous high and maybe one more higher high.

Anyone interested?

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Just bought some $550 calls expiring Friday. Rally, anyone???

Something to watch. Might give me pause on the calls. Might lose the trendline from the October low.



Look what happened last year when we lost the trendline close to this same time of year..

What does this mean?? Can you explain it like I'm 5?

Brian Earl Spilner said:

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Threw caution to the wind and dumped another $6k into QQQM in my Roth 401k account.

Still sitting on $35k cash in case a real correction is still in the cards, but I'm feeling more and more like that's just not happening this year.

Got in right before everything started rallying.

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Boy did that blow up in my face immediately.

TheVarian said:

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What does this mean?? Can you explain it like I'm 5?

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A big bank in Canada is needing to sell its treasuries to the FED to raise money for a liquidity crisis. The goal would be to buy them back at a later day once the storm clears.

Global economies are teetering on the edge, Capital One has massive credit risk, the Japanese yen is tanking forcing them to sell their treasuries into the market to raise funds to attempt to backstop their own currency, and now we are hearing of a potential mega bank in Canada having a liquidity crisis.

Things are not trending well, and liquidity has been falling for months. As I've outlined before, falling bond yields is the first sign that something bad is coming. If you start to see an increased flight to safety (falling yields and rising bonds), it means the market is bracing for something and buying up treasuries before its too late.

Grassy a$$ me hoe

i'm thinking SPY 500 puts instead of calls