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Heineken-Ashi
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In reply to Brian Earl Spilner • 8:43a, 6/20/24
Brian Earl Spilner said:
You're talking about the gap between the two. I am not.


No, I'm not. Go look again at the trajectory and depth of the drops in both when there is divergence.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
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Brian Earl Spilner
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In reply to Heineken-Ashi • 8:51a, 6/20/24
AG
I'm really not concerned with the chart because there are always unique circumstances, there are no hard or fast rules for anything.

For me it's really this simple, pull up the 5Y chart for both SPY and IWM. Their returns are +86% and +30%, respectively.

In the unlikely event that both of them fall back to their COVID lows, one of them has way more to drop than the other.
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McInnis 03
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8:52a, 6/20/24
AG
When did DKNG become a semiconductor?
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SF2004
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In reply to jamey • 8:57a, 6/20/24
AG
jamey said:
Guess I don't understand why this divergence would not close when they start to lower rates again


Go read Beer candle guys post and my response to it a few pages back.

Once a cut is signaled then a ton of institutional money will rush out of the markets and into vehicles to lock up long term yield at north of 4.5-5%. This will put downward pressure on equities and especially the hand full of stocks that are holding the market it (they are way overvalued).

When you have billions of dollars (mostly other peoples money to) then 5% long term sounds like a great spot to park dollars until the uncertainty of rate cuts settles.

Markets get volatile when uncertainty increases. They grind up when there is clarity.
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I bleed maroon
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In reply to Heineken-Ashi • 9:07a, 6/20/24
AG
Heineken-Ashi said:
Brian Earl Spilner said:
It's not really about the Russell closing the gap with SPY. It's the fact that there is far more downside in SPY in the event of a crash. Most small caps haven't actually recovered, much less rallied to new highs.

And in the event the market keeps rallying from lower and lower CPI in anticipation of rate cuts, Russell has a lot more room to go to recover to highs.


Go back and look at my SPX vs RUT chart. This post couldn't be more wrong.
I think he's referring to his longer term overall perspective as a value investor, not as a short-term trading opportunity or hedge. I may or may not agree with his thoughts, but it sure isn't "wrong".
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Red Pear Luke (BCS)
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9:15a, 6/20/24
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AG
CNBC talking head just reiterated that the bullish case on Russel and Small Caps is misplaced. Forecasting pain in tandem with/when rates are cut.
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Chef Elko
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9:22a, 6/20/24
AG
For those looking at small caps, put CALF on your radar. These "cash cow" ETFs have performed very well and take into account, at least IMO, the most important trait of a company, free cash flow.

I'm in the higher for longer camp and don't think JPOW is going to cut. He already goofed going along with the "It's Transitory" narrative being pushed by the fed govt, he wont let inflation get out of hand and ruin his legacy on the way out. The movement of capital to high FCF companies has worked well so far.
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Chef Elko
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9:26a, 6/20/24
AG
I feel there could be better ways to play the fed cutting rates sooner by playing bonds or highly leveraged companies with debt maturities fast approaching vs a small cap ETF, but that also takes a lot more work! I own RKT to hedge some against my thought of higher for longer.
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nortex97
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In reply to I bleed maroon • 9:27a, 6/20/24
AG
I bleed maroon said:
Heineken-Ashi said:
Brian Earl Spilner said:
It's not really about the Russell closing the gap with SPY. It's the fact that there is far more downside in SPY in the event of a crash. Most small caps haven't actually recovered, much less rallied to new highs.

And in the event the market keeps rallying from lower and lower CPI in anticipation of rate cuts, Russell has a lot more room to go to recover to highs.
Go back and look at my SPX vs RUT chart. This post couldn't be more wrong.
I think he's referring to his longer term overall perspective as a value investor, not as a short-term trading opportunity or hedge. I may or may not agree with his thoughts, but it sure isn't "wrong".
In what time period has RUT ever outperformed SPY? Predictions of an economic boom lifting small caps above SPX seems…unrooted in reality, technical or otherwise.
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Heineken-Ashi
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In reply to I bleed maroon • 9:27a, 6/20/24
I bleed maroon said:
Heineken-Ashi said:
Brian Earl Spilner said:
It's not really about the Russell closing the gap with SPY. It's the fact that there is far more downside in SPY in the event of a crash. Most small caps haven't actually recovered, much less rallied to new highs.

And in the event the market keeps rallying from lower and lower CPI in anticipation of rate cuts, Russell has a lot more room to go to recover to highs.


Go back and look at my SPX vs RUT chart. This post couldn't be more wrong.
I think he's referring to his longer term overall perspective as a value investor, not as a short-term trading opportunity or hedge. I may or may not agree with his thoughts, but it sure isn't "wrong".
Then break it down for me. Because what I'm reading him say is that the S&P would fall harder in a crash scenario. In fact, that's his exact words.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
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Brian Earl Spilner
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In reply to nortex97 • 9:30a, 6/20/24
AG
Please point out where I said it would lift above SPX.

I am only comparing Russell to ITSELF, and said it still has a lot of room to grow just to reach its previous high.
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Brian Earl Spilner
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In reply to Heineken-Ashi • 9:33a, 6/20/24
AG
Already clarified it above.

For a guy who's constantly going on about how none of us know anything for sure and your charts could easily be wrong... you sure like to tell people they're wrong a lot.

Further, we have fundamentally different approaches to investing, as I am not and have never been a day trader.

Agree to disagree, and move on.
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Heineken-Ashi
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In reply to Brian Earl Spilner • 9:35a, 6/20/24
Brian Earl Spilner said:
I'm really not concerned with the chart because there are always unique circumstances, there are no hard or fast rules for anything.

For me it's really this simple, pull up the 5Y chart for both SPY and IWM. Their returns are +86% and +30%, respectively.

In the unlikely event that both of them fall back to their COVID lows, one of them has way more to drop than the other.
You expect me to look at a 5-year chart, a literal blip on the radar, when you won't pull up my 25 year chart? I'll stick with historical context.

Also.. Covid low from here

RUT - 52% drop
SPX - 60% drop

Neither are something you want to be invested in if looking for safety in one over the other. And there's no historical context of Russell ever catching up after diverging from the SPX in trajectory and slope of price movement. So your bull case is a complete hunch looking for an outlier scenario compared to historical context, and your bear case is catastrophic.

Good luck.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
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Brian Earl Spilner
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In reply to Heineken-Ashi • 9:40a, 6/20/24
AG
I did look at your chart.

And not once did I suggest it would catch up to or surpass SPX. Fundamentally misunderstanding (or choosing to ignore) my point.

So if you're not going to even bother to accurately portray what I'm saying, and just keep shouting me down as being wrong, we are done here.
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Charismatic Megafauna
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In reply to Brian Earl Spilner • 9:41a, 6/20/24
AG
Brian Earl Spilner said:
So...to the moon?

Of course! What other logical outcome could we expect? Just ask enron!
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nortex97
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In reply to Brian Earl Spilner • 9:42a, 6/20/24
AG
Brian Earl Spilner said:
Please point out where I said it would lift above SPX.

I am only comparing Russell to ITSELF, and said it still has a lot of room to grow just to reach its previous high.
Not you but this was the analysis you quoted/supported, which I primarily reacted to;
Quote:
And in the event the market keeps rallying from lower and lower CPI in anticipation of rate cuts, Russell has a lot more room to go to recover to highs.
Lower and lower (non-fake) CPI lifting IWM comparatively higher vs. SPX seems, again, just not realistic, or tethered to/based on any previous time period I am aware of.
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Heineken-Ashi
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In reply to Brian Earl Spilner • 9:42a, 6/20/24
Brian Earl Spilner said:
I did look at your chart.

And not once did I suggest it would catch up to or surpass SPX. Fundamentally misunderstanding (or choosing to ignore) my point.

So if you're not going to even bother to accurately portray what I'm saying, and just keep shouting me down as being wrong, we are done here.
Then make your point better. Because it's obviously still not clear to me.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
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Charismatic Megafauna
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9:48a, 6/20/24
AG
Hi ho SLV, btw
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Heineken-Ashi
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In reply to Heineken-Ashi • 9:51a, 6/20/24
Heineken-Ashi said:
We are again watching out for SMCI $1,020. It tried twice in April and May. I think it hits this time, likely this week. Upside extensions run to $1,100.
$1,015 hit in pre market.

Edit: $1,014
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
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Brian Earl Spilner
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In reply to nortex97 • 9:55a, 6/20/24
AG
Quote:
Lower and lower (non-fake) CPI lifting IWM comparatively higher vs. SPX seems, again, just not realistic, or tethered to/based on any previous time period I am aware of.
From COVID low to 2021 high, and from Oct 2023 bottom to December 2023, IWM outgained SPX.

Do I think IWM can outgain SPX over a long period time? Of course not.

Do I think IWM can rally another 10% this year? Absolutely. And I'm slightly more confident in that than in SPX sustaining this current rally at the moment.

But, I'm not at all concerned with whether or not IWM will outgain SPX the rest of the year, and I want a more diversified portfolio since I am very tech heavy at the moment.

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TheVarian
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In reply to Heineken-Ashi • 9:56a, 6/20/24
AG
Kicking myself for not jumping in at $775
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Heineken-Ashi
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9:59a, 6/20/24
MARA - back in the upward channel. Resistance is $22.05 range and looking for $24-$26 range for next high should it get through. Support is $17.50.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
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Heineken-Ashi
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In reply to Brian Earl Spilner • 10:05a, 6/20/24
Brian Earl Spilner said:
Quote:
Lower and lower (non-fake) CPI lifting IWM comparatively higher vs. SPX seems, again, just not realistic, or tethered to/based on any previous time period I am aware of.
From COVID low to 2021 high, and from Oct 2023 bottom to December 2023, IWM outgained SPX.

Do I think IWM can outgain SPX over a long period time? Of course not.

Do I think IWM can rally another 10% this year? Absolutely. And I'm slightly more confident in that than in SPX sustaining this current rally at the moment.

But, I'm not at all concerned with whether or not IWM will outgain SPX the rest of the year, and I want a more diversified portfolio since I am very tech heavy at the moment.

Now that is more clear. Thank you for explaining.

I will go back to my chart though. RUT outperforming SPX in 2020 and 2021 was a divergence of slope when they shared the same trajectory. What happened next? They both sold off. Since the bottom, they have diverged again in slope, this time with SPX on a steeper slope. Nothing in history shows a divergence of slope followed by the laggard "catching up" in slope. What it does show is for the divergence to be followed by a selloff at some point. After the selloff, you might get a divergence of slope in one or the other back to the upside, and you might get a move in tandem. But what I was asking you for, and why the historical chart matters, is for a point in time where the divergence in slope was followed by an acceleration in the one that was lagging BEFORE first selling off. If you can find me that, I'd love to consider it in my data and analysis.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
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I bleed maroon
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In reply to Heineken-Ashi • 10:22a, 6/20/24
AG
Heineken-Ashi said:
Brian Earl Spilner said:
Quote:
Lower and lower (non-fake) CPI lifting IWM comparatively higher vs. SPX seems, again, just not realistic, or tethered to/based on any previous time period I am aware of.
From COVID low to 2021 high, and from Oct 2023 bottom to December 2023, IWM outgained SPX.

Do I think IWM can outgain SPX over a long period time? Of course not.

Do I think IWM can rally another 10% this year? Absolutely. And I'm slightly more confident in that than in SPX sustaining this current rally at the moment.

But, I'm not at all concerned with whether or not IWM will outgain SPX the rest of the year, and I want a more diversified portfolio since I am very tech heavy at the moment.

Now that is more clear. Thank you for explaining.

I will go back to my chart though. RUT outperforming SPX in 2020 and 2021 was a divergence of slope when they shared the same trajectory. What happened next? They both sold off. Since the bottom, they have diverged again in slope, this time with SPX on a steeper slope. Nothing in history shows a divergence of slope followed by the laggard "catching up" in slope. What it does show is for the divergence to be followed by a selloff at some point. After the selloff, you might get a divergence of slope in one or the other back to the upside, and you might get a move in tandem. But what I was asking you for, and why the historical chart matters, is for a point in time where the divergence in slope was followed by an acceleration in the one that was lagging BEFORE first selling off. If you can find me that, I'd love to consider it in my data and analysis.
Dude: You don't agree with his investing premise - we get it. Quit comparing the slopes of comparison charts, and arguing that you're always right (and others are always wrong) and look at the bigger picture. Straight off the internet:


Quote:
Do small caps outperform the S&P 500?


Individual small-cap stocks offer higher growth potential, and small-cap value index funds outperform the S&P 500 in the long run. Small caps also experience higher volatility, and individual small companies are more likely to go bankrupt than large firms.
This has been an accepted premise for as long as I've been investing (probably longer than you've been alive). NOTE: I am not saying I agree with this, but as I said, it's not "wrong", as you so definitively stated.


You can chart anything you want to "prove" your premise, but it won't make it so. Just accept that someone has a different philosophy than you, and point out why you disagree (which you're doing well at) without trying to discredit something that has a lot more adherents than Elliott Wave hieroglyphics.

We all have opinions, and should share ideas. Call out factual errors at will, but leave the right/wrong assessment on the opinions of others. We're all here to learn.

Happy investing!
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Heineken-Ashi
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10:27a, 6/20/24
IF we have seen a bottom in SLV, next standard should be $32-$35 and looking like July-August depending on how high it gets. An extension beyond the target would likely land at $38, but extensions in metals can get fierce, so I won't rule out as high as $42 as entirely possible. Lot of work to still. Any corrective move at this point, to maintain the more immediate bullish case, needs to hold mid $27's.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
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nortex97
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In reply to Heineken-Ashi • 10:32a, 6/20/24
AG
SLV and GDX are getting exciting. Note to all; this has nothing to do with stock/equity prices, imho, but a function of the technical trends here.
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I bleed maroon
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In reply to nortex97 • 10:40a, 6/20/24
AG
nortex97 said:
SLV and GDX are getting exciting. Note to all; this has nothing to do with stock/equity prices, imho, but a function of the technical trends here.
They are quite interesting (sustained uptrend for a while now), and indicative of the "fear trade". Watching metals, the VIX, bitcoin and others will be fascinating over the next few months. I don't like trading the VIX, but like the metals/bitcoin. But mostly, I short the triple-leverage bull index ETFs as my personal "fear trade". Any ideas from others?
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Brian Earl Spilner
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10:50a, 6/20/24
AG
AAPL coming back down to Earth it seems. Glad I trimmed at 220. I'll probably buy all those shares back at 200.
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El_duderino
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In reply to Brian Earl Spilner • 10:55a, 6/20/24
Made a quick profit on it this morning on the downside. It hit the 2 std deviation almost to the penny at $220 on the weekly chart. On the yearly it was way overextended past the 2 std dev.

$206 would be 50% retrace from the big move up I believe
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jamey
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In reply to SF2004 • 11:06a, 6/20/24
AG
SF2004 said:
jamey said:
Guess I don't understand why this divergence would not close when they start to lower rates again


Go read Beer candle guys post and my response to it a few pages back.

Once a cut is signaled then a ton of institutional money will rush out of the markets and into vehicles to lock up long term yield at north of 4.5-5%. This will put downward pressure on equities and especially the hand full of stocks that are holding the market it (they are way overvalued).

When you have billions of dollars (mostly other peoples money to) then 5% long term sounds like a great spot to park dollars until the uncertainty of rate cuts settles.

Markets get volatile when uncertainty increases. They grind up when there is clarity.


5% long term, like bonds?
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South Platte
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In reply to nortex97 • 12:11p, 6/20/24
nortex97 said:
SLV and GDX are getting exciting. Note to all; this has nothing to do with stock/equity prices, imho, but a function of the technical trends here.
For SLV, every article I see appears to be quite bullish for 2024 into 2025. I can't grasp the up and down trends of either over the past month, unless it's the same people trading over and over as it recycles. I do see that over the past week it seems to have found a bottom with today being the first true upward move.


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M4 Benelli
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In reply to Heineken-Ashi • 12:20p, 6/20/24
Heineken-Ashi said:
Short timed trade. Buy POWL. Stop this mornings low. Target between $181 and $190 in 2-3 days


Heine, how's this looking in your crystal ball? Quad Witching shooting this bad boy up tomorrow or que?
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EliteZags
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In reply to Charismatic Megafauna • 12:34p, 6/20/24
AG
Charismatic Megafauna said:
Brian Earl Spilner said:
So...to the moon?

Of course! What other logical outcome could we expect? Just ask enron!

<1% cash here lets ridee


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ProgN
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12:34p, 6/20/24
https://deadline.com/2024/06/donald-sutherland-dead-1235978933/

Quote:
Donald Sutherland, the beloved actor who starred in scores of films from The Dirty Dozen, MASH and Klute to Animal House and Ordinary People to Pride & Prejudice and The Hunger Games franchise and won an Emmy for Citizen X, died Thursday in Miami after a long illness. He was 88

Damn good actor, RIP
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BaylorSpineGuy
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12:57p, 6/20/24
LNG on breakout as predicted. Need to see it hold the upper range of that long consolidation but well above it so far.
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