Heineken-Ashi said:
Brian Earl Spilner said:
Quote:
Lower and lower (non-fake) CPI lifting IWM comparatively higher vs. SPX seems, again, just not realistic, or tethered to/based on any previous time period I am aware of.
From COVID low to 2021 high, and from Oct 2023 bottom to December 2023, IWM outgained SPX.
Do I think IWM can outgain SPX over a long period time? Of course not.
Do I think IWM can rally another 10% this year? Absolutely. And I'm slightly more confident in that than in SPX sustaining this current rally at the moment.
But, I'm not at all concerned with whether or not IWM will outgain SPX the rest of the year, and I want a more diversified portfolio since I am very tech heavy at the moment.
Now that is more clear. Thank you for explaining.
I will go back to my chart though. RUT outperforming SPX in 2020 and 2021 was a divergence of slope when they shared the same trajectory. What happened next? They both sold off. Since the bottom, they have diverged again in slope, this time with SPX on a steeper slope. Nothing in history shows a divergence of slope followed by the laggard "catching up" in slope. What it does show is for the divergence to be followed by a selloff at some point. After the selloff, you might get a divergence of slope in one or the other back to the upside, and you might get a move in tandem. But what I was asking you for, and why the historical chart matters, is for a point in time where the divergence in slope was followed by an acceleration in the one that was lagging BEFORE first selling off. If you can find me that, I'd love to consider it in my data and analysis.
Dude: You don't agree with his investing premise - we get it. Quit comparing the slopes of comparison charts, and arguing that you're always right (and others are always
wrong) and look at the bigger picture. Straight off the internet:
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Do small caps outperform the S&P 500?
Individual small-cap stocks offer higher growth potential, and small-cap value index funds outperform the S&P 500 in the long run. Small caps also experience higher volatility, and individual small companies are more likely to go bankrupt than large firms.
This has been an accepted premise for as long as I've been investing (probably longer than you've been alive). NOTE: I am not saying I agree with this, but as I said, it's not "
wrong", as you so definitively stated.
You can chart anything you want to "prove" your premise, but it won't make it so. Just accept that someone has a different philosophy than you, and point out why you disagree (which you're doing well at) without trying to discredit something that has a lot more adherents than Elliott Wave hieroglyphics.
We all have opinions, and should share ideas. Call out factual errors at will, but leave the right/wrong assessment on the opinions of others. We're all here to learn.
Happy investing!