Brian Earl Spilner said:

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You're talking about the gap between the two. I am not.

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No, I'm not. Go look again at the trajectory and depth of the drops in both when there is divergence.

When did DKNG become a semiconductor?

jamey said:

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Guess I don't understand why this divergence would not close when they start to lower rates again

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Go read Beer candle guys post and my response to it a few pages back.

Once a cut is signaled then a ton of institutional money will rush out of the markets and into vehicles to lock up long term yield at north of 4.5-5%. This will put downward pressure on equities and especially the hand full of stocks that are holding the market it (they are way overvalued).

When you have billions of dollars (mostly other peoples money to) then 5% long term sounds like a great spot to park dollars until the uncertainty of rate cuts settles.

Markets get volatile when uncertainty increases. They grind up when there is clarity.

CNBC talking head just reiterated that the bullish case on Russel and Small Caps is misplaced. Forecasting pain in tandem with/when rates are cut.

I bleed maroon said:

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Heineken-Ashi said:

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Brian Earl Spilner said:

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It's not really about the Russell closing the gap with SPY. It's the fact that there is far more downside in SPY in the event of a crash. Most small caps haven't actually recovered, much less rallied to new highs.

And in the event the market keeps rallying from lower and lower CPI in anticipation of rate cuts, Russell has a lot more room to go to recover to highs.

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Go back and look at my SPX vs RUT chart. This post couldn't be more wrong.

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I think he's referring to his longer term overall perspective as a value investor, not as a short-term trading opportunity or hedge. I may or may not agree with his thoughts, but it sure isn't "wrong".

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Then break it down for me. Because what I'm reading him say is that the S&P would fall harder in a crash scenario. In fact, that's his exact words.

Already clarified it above.

For a guy who's constantly going on about how none of us know anything for sure and your charts could easily be wrong... you sure like to tell people they're wrong a lot.

Further, we have fundamentally different approaches to investing, as I am not and have never been a day trader.

Agree to disagree, and move on.

Brian Earl Spilner said:

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I'm really not concerned with the chart because there are always unique circumstances, there are no hard or fast rules for anything.

For me it's really this simple, pull up the 5Y chart for both SPY and IWM. Their returns are +86% and +30%, respectively.

In the unlikely event that both of them fall back to their COVID lows, one of them has way more to drop than the other.

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You expect me to look at a 5-year chart, a literal blip on the radar, when you won't pull up my 25 year chart? I'll stick with historical context.

Also.. Covid low from here

RUT - 52% drop
SPX - 60% drop

Neither are something you want to be invested in if looking for safety in one over the other. And there's no historical context of Russell ever catching up after diverging from the SPX in trajectory and slope of price movement. So your bull case is a complete hunch looking for an outlier scenario compared to historical context, and your bear case is catastrophic.

Good luck.

Hi ho SLV, btw

MARA - back in the upward channel. Resistance is $22.05 range and looking for $24-$26 range for next high should it get through. Support is $17.50.

Brian Earl Spilner said:

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Quote:

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Lower and lower (non-fake) CPI lifting IWM comparatively higher vs. SPX seems, again, just not realistic, or tethered to/based on any previous time period I am aware of.

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From COVID low to 2021 high, and from Oct 2023 bottom to December 2023, IWM outgained SPX.

Do I think IWM can outgain SPX over a long period time? Of course not.

Do I think IWM can rally another 10% this year? Absolutely. And I'm slightly more confident in that than in SPX sustaining this current rally at the moment.

But, I'm not at all concerned with whether or not IWM will outgain SPX the rest of the year, and I want a more diversified portfolio since I am very tech heavy at the moment.

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Now that is more clear. Thank you for explaining.

I will go back to my chart though. RUT outperforming SPX in 2020 and 2021 was a divergence of slope when they shared the same trajectory. What happened next? They both sold off. Since the bottom, they have diverged again in slope, this time with SPX on a steeper slope. Nothing in history shows a divergence of slope followed by the laggard "catching up" in slope. What it does show is for the divergence to be followed by a selloff at some point. After the selloff, you might get a divergence of slope in one or the other back to the upside, and you might get a move in tandem. But what I was asking you for, and why the historical chart matters, is for a point in time where the divergence in slope was followed by an acceleration in the one that was lagging BEFORE first selling off. If you can find me that, I'd love to consider it in my data and analysis.

Heineken-Ashi said:

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Brian Earl Spilner said:

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Quote:

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Lower and lower (non-fake) CPI lifting IWM comparatively higher vs. SPX seems, again, just not realistic, or tethered to/based on any previous time period I am aware of.

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From COVID low to 2021 high, and from Oct 2023 bottom to December 2023, IWM outgained SPX.

Do I think IWM can outgain SPX over a long period time? Of course not.

Do I think IWM can rally another 10% this year? Absolutely. And I'm slightly more confident in that than in SPX sustaining this current rally at the moment.

But, I'm not at all concerned with whether or not IWM will outgain SPX the rest of the year, and I want a more diversified portfolio since I am very tech heavy at the moment.

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Now that is more clear. Thank you for explaining.

I will go back to my chart though. RUT outperforming SPX in 2020 and 2021 was a divergence of slope when they shared the same trajectory. What happened next? They both sold off. Since the bottom, they have diverged again in slope, this time with SPX on a steeper slope. Nothing in history shows a divergence of slope followed by the laggard "catching up" in slope. What it does show is for the divergence to be followed by a selloff at some point. After the selloff, you might get a divergence of slope in one or the other back to the upside, and you might get a move in tandem. But what I was asking you for, and why the historical chart matters, is for a point in time where the divergence in slope was followed by an acceleration in the one that was lagging BEFORE first selling off. If you can find me that, I'd love to consider it in my data and analysis.

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Dude: You don't agree with his investing premise - we get it. Quit comparing the slopes of comparison charts, and arguing that you're always right (and others are always wrong) and look at the bigger picture. Straight off the internet:

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Do small caps outperform the S&P 500?


Individual small-cap stocks offer higher growth potential, and small-cap value index funds outperform the S&P 500 in the long run. Small caps also experience higher volatility, and individual small companies are more likely to go bankrupt than large firms.

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This has been an accepted premise for as long as I've been investing (probably longer than you've been alive). NOTE: I am not saying I agree with this, but as I said, it's not "wrong", as you so definitively stated.


You can chart anything you want to "prove" your premise, but it won't make it so. Just accept that someone has a different philosophy than you, and point out why you disagree (which you're doing well at) without trying to discredit something that has a lot more adherents than Elliott Wave hieroglyphics.

We all have opinions, and should share ideas. Call out factual errors at will, but leave the right/wrong assessment on the opinions of others. We're all here to learn.

Happy investing!

IF we have seen a bottom in SLV, next standard should be $32-$35 and looking like July-August depending on how high it gets. An extension beyond the target would likely land at $38, but extensions in metals can get fierce, so I won't rule out as high as $42 as entirely possible. Lot of work to still. Any corrective move at this point, to maintain the more immediate bullish case, needs to hold mid $27's.

Made a quick profit on it this morning on the downside. It hit the 2 std deviation almost to the penny at $220 on the weekly chart. On the yearly it was way overextended past the 2 std dev.

$206 would be 50% retrace from the big move up I believe

Charismatic Megafauna said:

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Brian Earl Spilner said:

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So...to the moon?

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Of course! What other logical outcome could we expect? Just ask enron!

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<1% cash here lets ridee

we're going to the moon 🚀 pic.twitter.com/9vuxUY8zDq

— wallstreetbets (@wallstreetbets) June 18, 2024

https://deadline.com/2024/06/donald-sutherland-dead-1235978933/

Quote:

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Donald Sutherland, the beloved actor who starred in scores of films from The Dirty Dozen, MASH and Klute to Animal House and Ordinary People to Pride & Prejudice and The Hunger Games franchise and won an Emmy for Citizen X, died Thursday in Miami after a long illness. He was 88

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Damn good actor, RIP