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Brian Earl Spilner
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3:42p, 6/18/24
AG
I transfered all my after-tax 401k Roth contributions to a Roth brokerage account just about a month ago, and put everything into QQQM / SOXQ / AIQ, but only put in about 40% and left the rest in cash to buy the dip.

Boy did I overshoot those buy limits. Not only it not touch most of them, they've all been left FAR behind.

Dang it. Oh well, the overall returns are actually about on par with the S&P's gain since then, even with most of that in cash.
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EliteZags
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In reply to Brian Earl Spilner • 4:19p, 6/18/24
AG
I had posted a similar scenario, updating the numbers today:

-----------------------------

somehow well timed transferring my decent sized HSA from Optum to Fidelity in mid April right as VOO started dipping from 476, was annoyed at Optum's antiquated transfer process which forced selling to cash then taking up to a week to transfer, but it worked out as I swiftly bought half back in upper 450's
then as it started rising more figured I'd spice up the remainder to take advantage of tax free gains and sprinkled it across these, most of which I already owned elsewhere (gain% from past ~1.5 months):

SMH (+34%)
TSLA (+29%)
HOOD (+30%)
GOOG (+13%)
PLTR (+23%)
AVGO (+33%)
SOFI (-8%)

then VOO(+9.6%)

also started doing something similar with a portion of my Roth after transferring to RH for the crazy 3% bonus a few months back which has also done pretty well

it's a conundrum with these accounts you kinda want to play aggressive to maximize untaxed gains potential, but at the same time losing hurts more due to limited fund capacity and no loss harvesting consolation

however still consider those all long holds with Broadcom the only one debating taking profits on, but it's still under a 5 figure position so maybe just let it ride?
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BaylorSpineGuy
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5:55p, 6/18/24
Keep watch for LNG. Trading in tight range for 4 months and left a wick at top of range today. Either stays rangebound but a close above the range and this could run a ways.
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Agsrback12
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In reply to Heineken-Ashi • 9:59p, 6/18/24
Thanks!
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agAngeldad
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In reply to sts7049 • 10:35p, 6/18/24
sts7049 said:
BLDE with some volume
Followed BLADE for a while. Where do you see it going?
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jamey
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In reply to Brian Earl Spilner • 10:49p, 6/18/24
AG
Brian Earl Spilner said:
I transfered all my after-tax 401k Roth contributions to a Roth brokerage account just about a month ago, and put everything into QQQM / SOXQ / AIQ, but only put in about 40% and left the rest in cash to buy the dip.

Boy did I overshoot those buy limits. Not only it not touch most of them, they've all been left FAR behind.

Dang it. Oh well, the overall returns are actually about on par with the S&P's gain since then, even with most of that in cash.


I got about 22% of my money in the Russell. I figure they'll lower rates this year or next so I'm just waiting for blastoff
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giddings_ag_06
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In reply to agAngeldad • 11:11p, 6/18/24
AG
agAngeldad said:
sts7049 said:
BLDE with some volume
Followed BLADE for a while. Where do you see it going?


The same trajectory as a Boeing plane.

Jk, but I bailed last week. Seems like a looong term company and I'd rather trade. I'm probably wrong though.
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Heineken-Ashi
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In reply to jamey • 11:53p, 6/18/24
jamey said:
Brian Earl Spilner said:
I transfered all my after-tax 401k Roth contributions to a Roth brokerage account just about a month ago, and put everything into QQQM / SOXQ / AIQ, but only put in about 40% and left the rest in cash to buy the dip.

Boy did I overshoot those buy limits. Not only it not touch most of them, they've all been left FAR behind.

Dang it. Oh well, the overall returns are actually about on par with the S&P's gain since then, even with most of that in cash.


I got about 22% of my money in the Russell. I figure they'll lower rates this year or next so I'm just waiting for blastoff
I've posted many times why lowering rates is not likely to do what you think it will. Most recently was a couple weeks ago when I discussed the 10-year and 2-year downward setup that's been brewing and what it historically means for markets.

But I would more suggest you look at historical instance where Russell and SPX started diverging away from each other, relative to the shared trajectory they were previously following. It almost always precedes a significant, if not generational, drawdown in both.

What's really striking is that you don't see a single instance where RUT plays "catchup" to SPX after significantly lagging behind in either trajectory or slope.

"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
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Heineken-Ashi
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In reply to giddings_ag_06 • 11:55p, 6/18/24
giddings_ag_06 said:
agAngeldad said:
sts7049 said:
BLDE with some volume
Followed BLADE for a while. Where do you see it going?


The same trajectory as a Boeing plane.

Jk, but I bailed last week. Seems like a looong term company and I'd rather trade. I'm probably wrong though.
It was never a sure thing, just a great technical setup that I was able to identify. They don't always work. And this one might not. But no support has broken yet. And I was always clear that premium paid for the calls was the stop. I actually think it's good that you acted on your own intuition and got some or most of your money back if you feel uneasy about it. Risk management is key in trading.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
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Talon2DSO
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7:01a, 6/19/24
AG
Anyone jumping back into HUMA now that it's sub $6?
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bhanacik
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7:13a, 6/19/24
AG
My stop on HUMA is 5.84

Looks like that touched after hours so we'll see if I get stopped out this morning.
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cryption
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7:56a, 6/19/24
reminder markets closed today
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flashplayer
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8:11a, 6/19/24
AG
The Humacyte FDA decision is supposed to happen within 51 calendar days when the market opens tomorrow. Nothing that has happened the last month gives me the warm and fuzzies that approval is likely. I am expecting there is a possibility I lose all of what I dumped into calls. That said, I tend to think HUMA jumps at least 50% in 24 hours if a favorable decision is announced, so I am still holding out hope that my calls wont be worthless by August 10.

Anything with the FDA approval game is a big risk though. I believe it's a 50/50 shot if you're just looking at any random application. That it hasn't been approved anywhere else is also kind of a red flag for me. Just know that this is a high risk/reward pick.
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nortex97
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In reply to flashplayer • 8:23a, 6/19/24
AG
It's good that the CMS issued a ICD code for their procedure. That doesn't mean FDA clearance is happening but it is essential to reimbursement down the line. Notably;

Quote:
The Prescription Drug User Fee Act (PDUFA) date for the FDA's regulatory decision on Humacyte's Biologics License Application (BLA), is August 10, 2024. This is based on a Priority Review which was granted by the FDA. The BLA submission was supported by positive results from the V005 Phase 2/3 clinical trial, and real-world evidence from the treatment of wartime injuries in Ukraine. In these studies, Humacyte's ATEV demonstrated higher patency (blood flow) rates and lower amputation and infection rates as compared to historic synthetic graft benchmarks.
Note, the FDA can reply back earlier with more questions to them, and they can then toll the response by 30-60 days I think based on gathering that info back to the regulatory folks. This is one of those companies actually benefitting from the Ukraine war injuries in that they got a lot of data to support this (I think, could be wrong).

My red flag on this one is that the COO sold every single one of his shares this month. If She thought it was gonna double in price in 60 days…that wouldn't have happened, imho, and she's more plugged into their process/submissions than any of us.
Quote:
The transaction occurred with the shares priced at $8.15, valuing the sale at approximately $1,560,414.65. This sale has adjusted the insider's stake in the company to zero, marking a significant change in their investment position.

Over the past year, Heather Prichard has sold a total of 191,511 shares and has not made any purchases. This pattern of selling is part of a broader trend within the company. In the past year, there have been 11 insider sells and only 3 insider buys at Humacyte Inc.
I've debated calls on this more than once, but can't convince myself yet.
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Brian Earl Spilner
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1:51p, 6/19/24
AG
Tracked down the pdf of the Russell reconstitution happening on June 28.

https://www.lseg.com/content/dam/ftse-russell/en_us/documents/other/2024-russell-recon-recap-preliminary.pdf

Since several people were wondering, it confirms that SMCI will indeed be removed from the Russell 2000 and moved into the Russell 1000.

Quote:
Examples of companies joining the Russell 1000 Index from the Russell 2000 Index are Super Micro Computer (Technology), MicroStrategy (Technology), Carvana (Consumer Discretionary), Permian Resources (Energy) and Comfort Systems USA (Industrials).
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Heineken-Ashi
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In reply to Brian Earl Spilner • 2:32p, 6/19/24
Brian Earl Spilner said:
Tracked down the pdf of the Russell reconstitution happening on June 28.

https://www.lseg.com/content/dam/ftse-russell/en_us/documents/other/2024-russell-recon-recap-preliminary.pdf

Since several people were wondering, it confirms that SMCI will indeed be removed from the Russell 2000 and moved into the Russell 1000.

Quote:
Examples of companies joining the Russell 1000 Index from the Russell 2000 Index are Super Micro Computer (Technology), MicroStrategy (Technology), Carvana (Consumer Discretionary), Permian Resources (Energy) and Comfort Systems USA (Industrials).
If you want to take advantage of what you think is a bullish outcome of the Russell rebalance, please understand the way the Russell is broken down..

Quote:
  • The Russell 3000 Index consists of the largest 3,000 U.S. companies by market cap rank. A company in the Russell 3000 is also included in either the Russell 1000 or Russell 2000 Indexes.
  • The Russell 1000 is comprised of the first 1,000 qualified companies in the Russell 3000 and represents the largest U.S. companies.

  • The Russell 2000 is comprised of the 2,000 smallest companies within the Russell 3000 and is generally viewed as the benchmark index for smallcap companies.
My advice would be to buy into RUI (Russell 1000), as it will would likely pull closer to RUA (Russell 3000). RUT (2000) would likely pull away from those two, more than it already has. Russell will have abnormally large volume in a single day next week as the indexes, and funds that peg to them, move money in and out.



All of that said, I have zero confidence in Russell right now and think its a ticking timebomb. Chart from late last night is my reasoning.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
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Brian Earl Spilner
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In reply to Heineken-Ashi • 3:03p, 6/19/24
AG
Quote:
If you want to take advantage of what you think is a bullish outcome of the Russell rebalance, please understand the way the Russell is broken down.


What part of my post made you think I don't?

And the Russell 1000 is for all intents and purposes just the S&P 500. So if you're already heavy in the S&P like I am, no reason to also buy into Russell 1000.
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EliteZags
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3:39p, 6/19/24
AG
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Heineken-Ashi
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In reply to Brian Earl Spilner • 4:34p, 6/19/24
Brian Earl Spilner said:
Quote:
If you want to take advantage of what you think is a bullish outcome of the Russell rebalance, please understand the way the Russell is broken down.


What part of my post made you think I don't?

And the Russell 1000 is for all intents and purposes just the S&P 500. So if you're already heavy in the S&P like I am, no reason to also buy into Russell 1000.
Was speaking to the more general crowd using your post as a reference. Nothing more
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
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BaylorSpineGuy
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6:30p, 6/19/24
Farmer or anyone got their ear to the ground on oil or LNG? My Aggie FIL sells motors in Houston to O&G companies. He says they have done half their annual business in the last 2 months and are seeing backlogs they haven't send since 2014.

We all keep waiting for recession but I can't imagine O&G companies ramping up drilling and transport of O&G if a recession is around the corner?

Oil shock incoming?!
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ProgN
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6:49p, 6/19/24
https://247wallst.com/technology-3/2024/06/19/elon-musk-confirms-a-massive-super-micro-computer-server-win/?utm_source=snapi

Quote:
Markets were closed on Wednesday, but that didn't stop Elon Musk from breaking some news that could be very material for Super Micro Computer (Nasdaq: SMCI) shareholders. On X, the platform he acquired in 2022, Musk seemed to confirm that Super Micro will be splitting a win for servers with Dell that are going to his AI company, xAI. Let's look at the details.
Quote:
However, shortly after Dell's tweet Elon Musk clarified that Dell would only be building half the racks going into the supercomputer xAI is building. In a follow-up Tweet, he seemed to confirm the other half would go to Super Micro Computer.
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PeekingDuck
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In reply to BaylorSpineGuy • 8:05p, 6/19/24
AG
The US rig count is drastically lower year over year and has continued to trend down. Oil and gas are somewhat disconnected right now due to lack of export and forced curtailment due to pipeline capacity when combined with associated gas flaring bans. Odd times ahead and I'm not sure where exactly it all goes. If I had to bet, prices will be going up generally. Oil stocks have also been disconnected slightly from price lately due to sector rotation (read: Nvidia).
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Charismatic Megafauna
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9:35p, 6/19/24
AG
Yo I love all the talk about rocketships, and imma let y'all finish, but did anyone notice that friday is a full moon, in addition to quad witching?
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GasAg90
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In reply to BaylorSpineGuy • 9:54p, 6/19/24
Not to pop your bubble but 2015 was one hell of a bust.
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Brian Earl Spilner
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In reply to Charismatic Megafauna • 10:33p, 6/19/24
AG
So...to the moon?
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jamey
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10:53p, 6/19/24
AG
Guess I don't understand why this divergence would not close when they start to lower rates again


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Heineken-Ashi
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In reply to jamey • 11:32p, 6/19/24
jamey said:
Guess I don't understand why this divergence would not close when they start to lower rates again


Find me a time in the past it has done so and I'll consider it.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
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GreasenUSA
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In reply to jamey • 11:55p, 6/19/24
AG
In the last 40 years, on average, the S&P 500 enters a 20% drawdown in the first 9 months after starting a rate cut cycle.

I suppose that means that the divergence could start to close, but you're going to see downward pressure on all indexes.

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jamey
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In reply to Heineken-Ashi • 12:04a, 6/20/24
AG
Heineken-Ashi said:
jamey said:
Guess I don't understand why this divergence would not close when they start to lower rates again


Find me a time in the past it has done so and I'll consider it.


How often can you find a 55% divergence though?

I think XBI is a better bet than the Russell
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Heineken-Ashi
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In reply to jamey • 12:15a, 6/20/24
jamey said:
Heineken-Ashi said:
jamey said:
Guess I don't understand why this divergence would not close when they start to lower rates again


Find me a time in the past it has done so and I'll consider it.


How often can you find a 55% divergence though?

I think XBI is a better bet than the Russell
That divergence is an extremely bearish signal. Right now, over 50% of Nasdaq stocks are making new lows while the index makes new highs. That's not because there's going to be rotation from the handful of stocks holding the market up to the thousands that are beaten down. The lower end is telling you what's actually going on while the very very top are distracting you from reality.

I highly suggest reading this about Hindenburg Omens. We just got a confirmed one.

https://www.technicalindicatorindex.com/subscribers/guest-articles/Hindenburg%20Article%20June%2017th%2C%202024%20McHugh.pdf
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
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EnronAg
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7:54a, 6/20/24
AG
NVDA is just insane...when does this parabolic move cease? this sucker is just carrying the market...and there seems to be no end in sight
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Brian Earl Spilner
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8:16a, 6/20/24
AG
It's not really about the Russell closing the gap with SPY. It's the fact that there is far more downside in SPY in the event of a crash. Most small caps haven't actually recovered, much less rallied to new highs.

And in the event the market keeps rallying from lower and lower CPI in anticipation of rate cuts, Russell has a lot more room to go to recover to highs.
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Heineken-Ashi
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In reply to Brian Earl Spilner • 8:21a, 6/20/24
Brian Earl Spilner said:
It's not really about the Russell closing the gap with SPY. It's the fact that there is far more downside in SPY in the event of a crash. Most small caps haven't actually recovered, much less rallied to new highs.

And in the event the market keeps rallying from lower and lower CPI in anticipation of rate cuts, Russell has a lot more room to go to recover to highs.


Go back and look at my SPX vs RUT chart. This post couldn't be more wrong.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
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Brian Earl Spilner
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In reply to Heineken-Ashi • 8:24a, 6/20/24
AG
You're talking about the gap between the two. I am not.
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El_duderino
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8:26a, 6/20/24
Buffett added more shares to his OXY position for 9 days straight. Looks like it put in a recent double bottom at about $59 as well.
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