If the FED is going to drop rates, it's only going to be after one of two things happen..
1. The 2Y yield crosses back below the 10y yield.
2. Both the 2Y and 10Y start free falling together.
And those events line up with market corrections at best and major drawdown events at worst. If you aren't paying attention to bond yields, you are quite literally not paying attention at all.
And there really isn't any history of the FED acting before market yields tell it to. If they were to drop without market yields first dropping, you would likely see something for the very first time, a divergence in the direction of the FED rate from the direction of the market, which would cause the FED to reverse rather quickly and move at an extreme pace to catch up. Don't believe me? Look at how long the FED waited to raise rates following COVID. The market started moving up in July 2020. The FED remained flat until February 2022. What followed was the FED having to undergo a historic pace of raising rates to catch up. And we all know how that worked out for the economy. I've talked before about why the FED waited. "Transitory" was merely their excuse. The liquidity they had injected following COVID needed time to filter through the economy into the hands of the wealthy. It wasn't until the market and real estate reached obscene eutrophic levels that they finally acted. The people the FED truly protects had finally had enough time to generate a cushion. Next time might not be so generous to them.
If you see them drop rates before the market rates drop, you likely have 6 months to protect yourself from the massive increase in inflation that will ensue. And if you see rates drop, especially if the 2yr crosses the 10y, it's probably already too late, as the FED dropping will trigger the free fall in markets.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)