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24,627,353 Views | 233265 Replies | Last: 1 hr ago by Heineken-Ashi
Brewmaster
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bmoochie said:

Wtf kind of day was this?!


I need the Morpheus (matrix) gif here… "What if I told you interest rates are going to be cut soon!" Maybe the markets know cuts are coming
Heineken-Ashi
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Brewmaster said:

bmoochie said:

Wtf kind of day was this?!


I need the Morpheus (matrix) gif here… "What if I told you interest rates are going to be cut soon!" Maybe the markets know cuts are coming
You'd be wrong. The markets and it's participants aren't even as accurate as weathermen. That's why the majority of money managers rarely beat the S&P. They've been predicting cuts for how long now? If you told them in January that the best we would get is a single cut in December, how many of them would have predicted 5300?

I actually think there is a setup in place, in both bonds and yields, for rates to come down a bit. But even with my methods of measuring sentiment, I am wrong a lot. Nothing is baked in and nothing is a given. And nobody is omniscient.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
Charismatic Megafauna
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FishrCoAg said:

Just sold a June 160 put for 2.25. Spread was .75 bid 4.xx ask

Followed you here but only got $2. Sp jumped after close so probably an easy $200
McInnis 03
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Yesterday explained in Greek

McInnis 03
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Also I'm a terrible terrible SPY trader (as you saw by me scalping the wrong way yesterday). I drew this 518.30 line in March. Imagine had we gone long against it on a lotto yesterday.

(Yellow are touch reverses)


Heineken-Ashi
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Have you ever tried listening to McInnis #2 and doing the complete opposite of what your first instinct is? Literally on every trade. For a month.

I bet he's right more than you.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
McInnis 03
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the problem is number 3 usually sides of number 1
El_duderino
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I agree with Heineken and just inverse whatever #3 is thinking and see how it goes
Heineken-Ashi
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McInnis 03 said:

the problem is number 3 usually sides of number 1
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
Heineken-Ashi
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DVN - Let's ride. Chart should be clear as day. Targeting $80.

"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
BaylorSpineGuy
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HA, you've been in a run with metals. Palladium didn't get the memo. Is it almost time? PALL is the ticker.

As an aside, I found PDYN, an AI company in a rounded base with some cup completion. Curious for ur thoughts….
Heineken-Ashi
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BaylorSpineGuy said:

HA, you've been in a run with metals. Palladium didn't get the memo. Is it almost time? PALL is the ticker.

As an aside, I found PDYN, an AI company in a rounded base with some cup completion. Curious for ur thoughts….
PALL over $97 and I like its chances for $120 before one more possible selloff. There's potential for metals to come down a little more. If so, Palladium won't be sitting there making gains when that happens. Right now, you'd be safe with a stop at $78.50. Just watch out for overnight selloffs as the world market and futures drive this one.

After the next bottom (and again, possible its in), I see it starting its move back up. But if I'm allocating funds, Palladium is last on the list behind gold, silver, copper, and platinum.

PYDN, looks like there CEO has been acquiring shares in May. Nothing crazy with buys with 15k and 23k shares. I can make an EW case for $4-$6 next target. $2.20 breaks it through the cloud and above a significant volume shelf. 144 EMA is sitting at $5.50 which. Could be a magnet. Outside of that, I can't offer much without digging deeper into the company.

These small caps with insignificant volume are not reliable on technicals. Just not enough sentiment to be accurately measured.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
deddog
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McInnis 03 said:

deddog said:

CRM getting slammed today.
Down 20%, is it a buy at this point for a short-medium term trade?


My reply to you on this (at least today ) was wildly wrong. I hope it didn't affect you.
No worries. I very much appreciated the initial reply.
Brian Earl Spilner
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flashplayer
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Meh. Several times it touched the line and nothing terrible happened. Way more to the overall picture than this. The down spike is an expected response to the ridiculous upspike preceding it anyway.
Towns03
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^ OK - so, what's the game plan
Brian Earl Spilner
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I tend to agree.
GreasenUSA
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The chart (which your post is over a year old) has already started to curl back up. What now?

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?graph_id=248494
flashplayer
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I am not an oracle but I do have faith in our money grubbing DC friends that they will keep this house of cards gravy train going as long as they can, and whatever potential next crisis is probably not within a year or two but likely further out with whatever bow on a turd idea they think of next to prop things up for just a bit longer.

It's kind of like setting sail on a slower moving Titanic knowing it's going to go down at some point but realizing there's a great deal of fun and high life to be had in the meantime. I have decided to put on my tux and enjoy the fun while it lasts, then hope there's a lifeboat for some of the women and children.

Watch things closely, know your stops that you're willing to swallow, and let things ride in a balanced way. I have lost a good bit of money listening to the bears lately and parking too much cash in the 5% money market.
Dan Scott
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Roaring Kitty is back!!!!!

Posts on Reddit he owns 5M shares and 120K June $20K calls

LETS GO!!!!!
Brian Earl Spilner
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So many bear doomsday articles coming out these days.

https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-crash-recession-warning-signals-sp500-outlook-wolfenbarger-2024-5
Dan Scott
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flashplayer
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He's about to start catching up with Elon or piss away most of 200MM
Brian Earl Spilner
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So my question is, he couldn't possibly sell or the SEC is investigating again for market manipulation, correct?
Dan Scott
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Robinhood overnight trading halted. Mothereffers
0708aggie
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Gme at 27.58
ProgN
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flashplayer said:

I am not an oracle but I do have faith in our money grubbing DC friends that they will keep this house of cards gravy train going as long as they can, and whatever potential next crisis is probably not within a year or two but likely further out with whatever bow on a turd idea they think of next to prop things up for just a bit longer.

It's kind of like setting sail on a slower moving Titanic knowing it's going to go down at some point but realizing there's a great deal of fun and high life to be had in the meantime. I have decided to put on my tux and enjoy the fun while it lasts, then hope there's a lifeboat for some of the women and children.

Watch things closely, know your stops that you're willing to swallow, and let things ride in a balanced way. I have lost a good bit of money listening to the bears lately and parking too much cash in the 5% money market.
No one is an oracle and don't believe anyone that says they know the top. That said, what I'm about to post is my own opinion and it will contain some politics but it's what everyone should be mindful of. It's obvious how I'll vote but in all honesty, it's really not going to matter and there's a good chance that whichever party wins, they'll wish they hadn't in hindsight because they'll take the blame. Zoom out and look at what we face ahead of us on a macro level.

The following will be reality for us all, regardless who's in the Oval Office. The treasury is going rollover around $800B of debt at much higher interest rates before the end of the year. When this happens, service on that debt (interest) will be approximately $1 .2T annually, exceeding our defense budget. The Trump tax cuts expire at the end of 2025, and Biden has said he plans to let them sunset. Neither candidate has uttered a word about cutting spending and both have said entitlements will not be touched. We have open borders and over 6M illegals in the past 3 years that are now on the government dole. We're currently running over $1.4 T deficits annually and growing, before the refinancing of the debt mentioned above. Biden plans to raise taxes and will if dems control both Houses of Congress. This will lead to mass layoffs and cripple the economy. China isn't buying our debt any longer and in fact, they've been dumping it on the market. That means that our bond offerings will have to offer higher rates to attract buyers, regardless if the Fed cuts rates. Imo, the Fed wants to cut rates to hopefully lower the debt service obligation, even though they shouldn't because dumbass Americans won't stop consuming and living on credit. That will also come to a head and pop.

I'm not a crypto investor and don't have enough knowledge to give an opinion of it, but people are buying it as a safe haven outside of the Dollar. I'm old and prefer gold, but both seem like a better position than faith in the dip****s in DC.

Tl;dr: Don't have rose colored glasses, just ride the waves, but be mindful of the facts that I posted above and protect yourselves. I don't want anyone in here to get crushed.

Prog
flashplayer
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I hear you. Part of my plan is go heavier on energy and metals / mining including uranium than what I had before (very tech / semi heavy) Put a little in crypto as well. Usually when the world economy starts to teeter totter it means more wars / regional conflicts are not far off. I will also be watching defense sector closely. I am also not afraid to bail quickly (like I did back in April) if things begin to look a bit uncertain, I will just learn from my mistake and be more measured about it next time.
Brewmaster
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thanks for your thoughts and insight here amigo. Hope your life is calming down a little.

I didn't get any replies on my real estate vs silver chart, but the prices of metals vs real estate fascinates me. In particular, 1980, real estate plummeted, and silver spiked at the same time. This will happen again and might be more pronounced this time and on the rebound, inflation could get nasty.
Brewmaster
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I hear you brother, I'm not fighting the tape. The top is probably already in, but that rip Friday before close makes one wonder. My first thought was shorts closing positions, but seems like too much buying for that even.
Heineken-Ashi
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Brewmaster said:

thanks for your thoughts and insight here amigo. Hope your life is calming down a little.

I didn't get any replies on my real estate vs silver chart, but the prices of metals vs real estate fascinates me. In particular, 1980, real estate plummeted, and silver spiked at the same time. This will happen again and might be more pronounced this time and on the rebound, inflation could get nasty.
I think it's because the only relationship they have with each other is that one tends to be accumulated preceding and during the period where a highly leveraged cycle comes to an end, and the other is a byproduct of the highly leveraged cycle that can only go down when leverage is removed or the rate of payment on leverage rises.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
McInnis 03
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Was just coming to post about the GME whale exposed. LoL

GME to $47 and now $37
Red Pear Luke (BCS)
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My reaction waking up to seeing GME this AM

Comeby!
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So I'm guessing if you're GameStop's CEO it wouldn't be cool to take some shares off the table?
Brewmaster
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Red Pear Luke (BCS) said:

My reaction waking up to seeing GME this AM


I got calls and shares, LFG!
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