bhanacik said:
Heineken-Ashi said:
bhanacik said:
Heineken-Ashi said:
AFLAC earnings May 1. If price is above $75, I'll probably be buying a good chunk of puts looking for $69 range. And I've got a target of low to mid $50's by election. But the next push down would be expected to be bought back for a couple months before the next drop. Watching closely.
Those of you wondering how to profit from downside. Pull up the 4hr chart and look at action since end of January. Corrections almost never happen in a single down day. It chopped back up to previous high. I'm looking for a 1.618% move of the last move down from the March high. If it happens BEFORE earnings, then I am forming a share position and maybe calls going into earnings.
I looked at AFL this weekend and it looks primed for that potential drop you were describing. Are you going to follow through with the puts play?
I kinds forget about it to be honest. I like where its at to reverse, but MACD isn't showing rollover yet on hourly and daily is pointing up after bottoming and rolling back up. Going to give it a little more time since we have over a week until earnings. Remind me later in the week to check back in.
H-A, any updated thoughts on this play? It's been pretty flat the last 2 weeks
So MACD and RSI have started to roll over intraday, but daily shows a sense of balance. I've zoomed in and out and it's just not providing a lot of clarity for an immediate resolution up or down, unfortunately. I still favor a large drop later this year, but not sure it's ready to start just yet, and can't rule out it going to new highs. I can't say I have high confidence on what earnings will do. It has resistance at the previous $86 double top from January and March. Strong supports at $79 and $75.
Earnings Wednesday. No confidence in any direction right now without seeing more. Get up to $85-$86 leading into earnings and I will favor earnings sending it down to $80. Go down early this week holding the $82.50 range, and I could see earnings pushing it to $85-$86.
Probably not one I will play unless I get some strong evidence Monday and Tuesday. Dissapointing as of now, because I was loving the setup pointing downward until this week. The large bounce back up threw it in limbo.
Have to take what something gives you. Trade on great setups that feature high probability outcomes. Betting on plays that are in balance is gambling.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)