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Heineken-Ashi
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1:03p, 4/29/24

Quote:
Investors who bet against Tesla stock have lost $5.5 billion in the four sessions since the electric car maker promised more affordable cars, according to data from S3 Partners.

The stock has soared almost 40% since the April 24 announcement, including a nearly 16% jump on Monday, when the automaker cleared some key regulatory hurdles that had long hindered the roll-out of its self-driving software in China.

Monday's surge cost the short sellers $2.93 billion and turned April unprofitable with losses of $2.11 billion, according to the analytics firm.

Still, with the company's shares down nearly 20% for 2024, profits booked by bearish Tesla investors stand at $4.10 billion for the year so far.

"This has not been a short squeeze as we have actually seen short selling into this rally with over 2 million new shares shorted over the last week," said S3's head of predictive analytics Ihor Dusaniwsky.

A short squeeze happens when these investors are forced to quickly cover their bets to limit losses if a stock gains ground instead of falling.

Tesla is the third-largest U.S. short behind Nvidia and Microsoft, Dusaniwsky said, noting that $18.53 billion, or 3.97% of its publicly available shares, are in short position.

Short squeeze might not have even started yet.
“Give it hell Heinekandle, I’m enjoying it.”
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX

“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
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Brian Earl Spilner
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1:11p, 4/29/24
AG
What's going on with TSLA?

Edit: Got it, cheap cars.
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ProgN
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In reply to Heineken-Ashi • 1:15p, 4/29/24
Heineken-Ashi said:
ProgN said:
When this TSLA short squeeze ends and it tops out, I'm looking at the TSLA 8/16 165p
I'd strike higher, as those gaps are going to be major demand zones. I'd set it up to profit off the first gap fill, then wait for bounce and reload to profit off the next.

But the 8 EMA is threatening to cross the 34 on daily for the first time this year. If that happens, I'd be amazed if TSLA drops to new lows from there.
I'm not married to a strike price and will choose exact one when it shows a top, but I'm still going to target the August puts.

Nothing has changed in the short term fundamentally. EV demand dropping, margin pressure still there, more competition. They won't book any subscription revenue for robotaxis in China for 3 years at the earliest. This thing will get crushed, maybe not a new low, but it will get kicked in the nuts.
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GreasenUSA
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In reply to Brian Earl Spilner • 1:27p, 4/29/24
AG
Brian Earl Spilner said:
What's going on with TSLA?

Edit: Got it, cheap cars.
China roadblocks removed and a partnership with BIDU.

With a gap up over 10% today, I wasn't interested in any long trades. I should have kept in mind that TSLA stock rarely gives way to notions of overbought and oversold. But since it basically did run directly to the 100SMA over the course of 2 hours without a pullback, was a pretty simple short from there, which I did catch.
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bmoochie
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In reply to ProgN • 1:31p, 4/29/24
AG
ProgN said:
When this TSLA short squeeze ends and it tops out, I'm looking at the TSLA 8/16 165p
You are speaking my language brother
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texagbeliever
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1:40p, 4/29/24
Anyone else having trouble logging into ThinkorSwim? (Desktop, the app works for me)
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ProgN
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In reply to texagbeliever • 1:47p, 4/29/24
texagbeliever said:
Anyone else having trouble logging into ThinkorSwim? (Desktop, the app works for me)
YES
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ProgN
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In reply to texagbeliever • 1:57p, 4/29/24
texagbeliever said:
Anyone else having trouble logging into ThinkorSwim? (Desktop, the app works for me)
It's back up now.
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texagbeliever
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In reply to ProgN • 2:02p, 4/29/24
ProgN said:
texagbeliever said:
Anyone else having trouble logging into ThinkorSwim? (Desktop, the app works for me)
It's back up now.
Thanks for the heads up
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texagbeliever
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2:02p, 4/29/24
Those sells at 1pm & 2pm (cst) have been big.
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ProgN
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In reply to bmoochie • 2:30p, 4/29/24
bmoochie said:
ProgN said:
When this TSLA short squeeze ends and it tops out, I'm looking at the TSLA 8/16 165p
You are speaking my language brother
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South Platte
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2:34p, 4/29/24
I want to pull the POWL trigger but my last pre-EC buy was FSLY and he kicked me in the crotch.
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ProgN
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2:40p, 4/29/24


Now burn this MFer to the ground into the close! Wanting a flush on SPY very very much.
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txaggie_08
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In reply to ProgN • 3:13p, 4/29/24
AG
ProgN said:


Now burn this MFer to the ground into the close! Wanting a flush on SPY very very much.
Well....


there's always tomorrow
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ProgN
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In reply to txaggie_08 • 3:18p, 4/29/24
txaggie_08 said:
ProgN said:


Now burn this MFer to the ground into the close! Wanting a flush on SPY very very much.
Well....


there's always tomorrow
I'm not worried about it. I trade longer dated options. It removes the stress of having to time it exactly right.
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McInnis 03
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3:25p, 4/29/24
AG
+10% in the small account today. Maybe I really am learning something from Ripster. This is good.
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ProgN
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In reply to McInnis 03 • 3:32p, 4/29/24
McInnis 03 said:
+10% in the small account today. Maybe I really am learning something from Ripster. This is good.
That's awesome brother!

It just sucks that you have to split it 3 ways.
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Brian Earl Spilner
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3:50p, 4/29/24
AG
Not sure what's been going on with BRKB or why it got downgraded to hold, but I'm gonna keep buying if it keeps falling.
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Brian Earl Spilner
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3:51p, 4/29/24
AG
Meanwhile, watching TSLA rocket having cut my losses around 160. :/

But, holding strong on AAPL and looks to be in good position to climb from here with its upgrade.

Plus I also took my GOOGL profits right near the top at 176.

Win some, lose some.
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Towns03
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4:11p, 4/29/24
AG
Is anyone getting out of SMCI before tomorrow??
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Number Monkey
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In reply to Towns03 • 4:30p, 4/29/24
AG
I'm up 27% since Prog rec'd it so I have some gains I can give back if needed, but I'm staying in to ride it out based on Prog's recommendation and hopeful stock split announcement.

Same with NVDA and POWL. Thanks, Prog!
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ProgN
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In reply to Towns03 • 4:49p, 4/29/24
Towns03 said:
Is anyone getting out of SMCI before tomorrow??
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ProgN
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In reply to Number Monkey • 4:52p, 4/29/24
Number Monkey said:
I'm up 27% since Prog rec'd it so I have some gains I can give back if needed, but I'm staying in to ride it out based on Prog's recommendation and hopeful stock split announcement.

Same with NVDA and POWL. Thanks, Prog!
I'm not selling before they report. Even if they don't split and get beat up, they won't stay down for long and I'll use that dip to add to them. SMCI and POWL would be stupid not to split their stock. Their stock float is way too low and splits increase the float which reduces their volatility and attracts more buyers that want to participate.
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Heineken-Ashi
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In reply to Brian Earl Spilner • 4:58p, 4/29/24
Brian Earl Spilner said:
Not sure what's been going on with BRKB or why it got downgraded to hold, but I'm gonna keep buying if it keeps falling.
Guess you didn't see my last post on it.
“Give it hell Heinekandle, I’m enjoying it.”
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX

“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
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bmoochie
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4:58p, 4/29/24
AG
I took a lotto today to play earnings on SMCI with my great gains from last week but it moved so much I had to sell for $600 gain on one call. Just too much movement to ignore those gains. Might do it again tomorrow but want to see how it looks.
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Brian Earl Spilner
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In reply to Heineken-Ashi • 5:12p, 4/29/24
AG
Nope. But not particularly worried about timeline. BRK is where I park money.
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ProgN
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In reply to bmoochie • 5:37p, 4/29/24
bmoochie said:
I took a lotto today to play earnings on SMCI with my great gains from last week but it moved so much I had to sell for $600 gain on one call. Just too much movement to ignore those gains. Might do it again tomorrow but want to see how it looks.

Since you're playing options that have a ton of premium for SMCI be aware that I'm expecting this to move violently one direction or the other due to their low float. I'm not concerned about their earnings, revenue or guidance at all. Imo they could smash expectations on all 3 metrics but it won't shock me if they are punished for not declaring a stock split. Should that happen, then I'll add to my position. If they do declare a split, then you have a homerun. Everyone makes their own decisions but I wanted you to consider two extreme possibilities.
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ProgN
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In reply to South Platte • 5:42p, 4/29/24
South Platte said:
I want to pull the POWL trigger but my last pre-EC buy was FSLY and he kicked me in the crotch.


I still feel like **** for that one fam, I'm sorry for FSLY.

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bmoochie
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In reply to ProgN • 5:52p, 4/29/24
AG
Oh I know it has two violent outcomes and possibilities haha. Which is why I took the profit and will re evaluate tomorrow and if I wana jump back in. I'm currently 50/50

It almost seems like it has to split at this point. They were punished last go around for not. But like you said in a previous post, they may not be getting good advice.
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valvemonkey91
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8:41p, 4/29/24
AG
I bought 10 shares of SMCI on Friday at $850. Looking for a good earnings report tomorrow.
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Heineken-Ashi
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9:44p, 4/29/24
SMCI is making a series of 3-wave moves since it's top. There are only 3 possibilities when a trend, whether up or down, operates in 3-wave segments.

1. Corrections - this could be the case with a bottom potentially in, but the overall structure forming the recent bottom is not common and should not be defaulted to until all other potentials are ruled out. If it was though, we would have in place what's called a "double three" correction, where instead of the final leg (the c-wave) taking shape as an impulsive 5 wave downward structure (all C waves in a three wave correction are 5-wave structures), it completes in 3 waves. Like I said, not very common. So I'm hesitant.

2. Leading Diagonal - this is a 5-wave move that leads off either a longer-term impulsive structure (in this case downward) or the first leg of a longer-term three wave correction (also would be down lower). LD's are 5-waves once complete, but they overlap in either expanding or contracting fashion (unlike impulsive 5-wave structures which don't overlap and more resemble strong lightning bolts fitting nicely in a channel). The chart below is showing a LD pointing down. All 5 waves break down into 3-wave moves. The kicker is that once complete, you will see another 3-wave move back up to one of the supply zones, likely between $850 and $1000. Then you will see an even sharper drop to new lows. Resistance is clearly marked on the chart for the wave (iv) top I am watching for as early as tomorrow (earnings day) and possibly Wednesday, Fed day. Also notice the orange line from the top to the potential bottom, being used as support and resistance along the way.

3. An ending diagonal - These are finality moves that happen as either the 5th wave of an impulse or the c-wave of a three-wave correction. Considering we are moving off a significant top, this cannot be an ED, leaving us with just the first two options, and the LD being the highest probability until proven otherwise.

For me to pivot to "bottom is in", I'd need to see a strong break of $950 with follow through above $1000. And no retracements below $820 at any point.

“Give it hell Heinekandle, I’m enjoying it.”
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX

“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
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cjo03
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In reply to ProgN • 10:15p, 4/29/24
AG
ProgN said:
McInnis 03 said:
+10% in the small account today. Maybe I really am learning something from Ripster. This is good.
That's awesome brother!

It just sucks that you have to split it 3 ways.


wait, there are 3 mcinnis now??
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spud1910
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In reply to cjo03 • 10:29p, 4/29/24
AG
cjo03 said:
ProgN said:
McInnis 03 said:
+10% in the small account today. Maybe I really am learning something from Ripster. This is good.
That's awesome brother!

It just sucks that you have to split it 3 ways.


wait, there are 3 mcinnis now??

3 that we know of.
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Heineken-Ashi
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12:28a, 4/30/24
CRM - Looking for between $250 and $265 to buy. Earnings end of May. Target is $350 to $380. Stop below $248. Those of you, like me, who felt like it got away before we could buy, this could be the chance in the coming 1-2 weeks. Hopefully it obliges.
“Give it hell Heinekandle, I’m enjoying it.”
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX

“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
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El_duderino
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7:31a, 4/30/24
Q1 ECI 1.2% vs 1% expected.
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