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23,984,395 Views | 231561 Replies | Last: 1 hr ago by Heineken-Ashi
ProgN
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59 South said:

You're probably right. I'm dumb and also fairly neutral. Just commenting on this thread becoming mostly people rooting for the downside instead of judging price action. It's mostly gambling and emotions to me, just an observation.
Well good sir, it's glaring apparent that you've missed several posts. It but wasn't even a fortnight ago that I posted that I deployed my cash reserves into NVDA $ 770ish, SMCI $780ish, POWL $130ish, ARM $87ish during the Israeli counterattack on Iran.

SMCI and POWL report earnings on Tuesday AH, and I think both have better than even odds that they'll declare a stock split due to their extremely low floats. If either one of them do, get ready for a ride into orbit with the quickness. If I'm wrong, then their execs are not getting the right advice.

Good to see you pop in mate.
59 South
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AG
Right on mate! Almost said I only still checked in cause of you! Alls good. Living the best life and hope everyone else is too!
If this post is on the B&I forum, lighten up it's just money!

Disclaimer: I'm not that smart.
Heineken-Ashi
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59 South said:

You're probably right. I'm dumb and also fairly neutral. Just commenting on this thread becoming mostly people rooting for the downside instead of judging price action. It's mostly gambling and emotions to me, just an observation.


Being neutral means being ready for what the market gives you. Nobody is rooting for downside. But seeing indicators that point to it means I'm going to position for it while hedging for upside.
“Give it hell Heinekandle, I’m enjoying it.”
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX

“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
59 South
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AG
Cool bruv
If this post is on the B&I forum, lighten up it's just money!

Disclaimer: I'm not that smart.
ProgN
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59 South said:

Right on mate! Almost said I only still checked in cause of you! Alls good. Living the best life and hope everyone else is too!
oldarmy1
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AG
plowe32
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AG
So, if you were swing trader, or even a position trader, would you consider a heavy cash position now? Several on here seem to be there already. Sounds like you'd say yes, too?

Edit to say I'm about 60% cash, currently. But, I'm also in some outside concerns that eat cash.

Edit 2 - we all trade at our own risk and don't take what you or anyone here says as investment advice. In fact, we understand all posts here are for information purposes only, of course .
ProgN
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plowe32 said:

So, if you were swing trader, or even a position trader, would you consider a heavy cash position now? Several on here seem to be there already. Sounds like you'd say yes, too?

Edit to say I'm about 60% cash, currently. But, I'm also in some outside concerns that eat cash.

Edit 2 - we all trade at our own risk and don't take what you or anyone here says as investment advice. In fact, we understand all posts here are for information purposes only, of course .
Not answering on OA's behalf, but I started banking profits earlier this year. I used that to buy into big momentum stocks when everyone dumped on Israel's counterattack. I'm also a momentum trader (swing trader) and it sounds like you've accumulated a good cash stock pile.

My advice is to pick stocks you know with the right setup for quick strikes. I'm doing the same. I re-engaged and will sell them if they spike and go back into cash. Summers usually suck and there's a lot of headwinds before the election.

No one knows what's going to happen, but remember that cash is a position too.
Heineken-Ashi
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plowe32 said:

So, if you were swing trader, or even a position trader, would you consider a heavy cash position now? Several on here seem to be there already. Sounds like you'd say yes, too?

Edit to say I'm about 60% cash, currently. But, I'm also in some outside concerns that eat cash.

Edit 2 - we all trade at our own risk and don't take what you or anyone here says as investment advice. In fact, we understand all posts here are for information purposes only, of course .
I'm personally out of indexes long. Only playing key setups and sectors strategically (will post one below). There's a lot of risk right now. When the talking heads start rationalizing with "interest rates are at historical norms", and "maybe higher interest rates are actually good", those should be warning signs. I don't think I have to mention the debt, deficits, commercial real estate, bank exposure to higher rates and CRE, the president threatening to raise capital gains, wars, or any of the other warning signs that have been going off. One little thing could break this wide open and there's a lot of room below.
“Give it hell Heinekandle, I’m enjoying it.”
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX

“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
Heineken-Ashi
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Here's one I like for a mid term bullish play, but there might be some shenanigans between current price and target. Could resolve anytime between end of May and August.

TAP. Currently $62.54. First support is $61.70 and next is $60.50. Earnings on Tuesday BMO. I've got a target of $80. Should it break $60.50, it becomes an avoid as many possibilities open up potentially down to $55. But hold $60.50, and earnings could cement that as a bottom until target is hit.

I also opted for Coors at the cash bar I was at last weekend as they didn't have Heineken and I don't do
“Give it hell Heinekandle, I’m enjoying it.”
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX

“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
oldarmy1
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AG
bhanacik
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AG
Heineken-Ashi said:

bhanacik said:

Heineken-Ashi said:

AFLAC earnings May 1. If price is above $75, I'll probably be buying a good chunk of puts looking for $69 range. And I've got a target of low to mid $50's by election. But the next push down would be expected to be bought back for a couple months before the next drop. Watching closely.

Those of you wondering how to profit from downside. Pull up the 4hr chart and look at action since end of January. Corrections almost never happen in a single down day. It chopped back up to previous high. I'm looking for a 1.618% move of the last move down from the March high. If it happens BEFORE earnings, then I am forming a share position and maybe calls going into earnings.
I looked at AFL this weekend and it looks primed for that potential drop you were describing. Are you going to follow through with the puts play?
I kinds forget about it to be honest. I like where its at to reverse, but MACD isn't showing rollover yet on hourly and daily is pointing up after bottoming and rolling back up. Going to give it a little more time since we have over a week until earnings. Remind me later in the week to check back in.
H-A, any updated thoughts on this play? It's been pretty flat the last 2 weeks
plowe32
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AG
Thank you Prog, Bud Light , and OA for the responses!
Heineken-Ashi
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bhanacik said:

Heineken-Ashi said:

bhanacik said:

Heineken-Ashi said:

AFLAC earnings May 1. If price is above $75, I'll probably be buying a good chunk of puts looking for $69 range. And I've got a target of low to mid $50's by election. But the next push down would be expected to be bought back for a couple months before the next drop. Watching closely.

Those of you wondering how to profit from downside. Pull up the 4hr chart and look at action since end of January. Corrections almost never happen in a single down day. It chopped back up to previous high. I'm looking for a 1.618% move of the last move down from the March high. If it happens BEFORE earnings, then I am forming a share position and maybe calls going into earnings.
I looked at AFL this weekend and it looks primed for that potential drop you were describing. Are you going to follow through with the puts play?
I kinds forget about it to be honest. I like where its at to reverse, but MACD isn't showing rollover yet on hourly and daily is pointing up after bottoming and rolling back up. Going to give it a little more time since we have over a week until earnings. Remind me later in the week to check back in.
H-A, any updated thoughts on this play? It's been pretty flat the last 2 weeks
So MACD and RSI have started to roll over intraday, but daily shows a sense of balance. I've zoomed in and out and it's just not providing a lot of clarity for an immediate resolution up or down, unfortunately. I still favor a large drop later this year, but not sure it's ready to start just yet, and can't rule out it going to new highs. I can't say I have high confidence on what earnings will do. It has resistance at the previous $86 double top from January and March. Strong supports at $79 and $75.

Earnings Wednesday. No confidence in any direction right now without seeing more. Get up to $85-$86 leading into earnings and I will favor earnings sending it down to $80. Go down early this week holding the $82.50 range, and I could see earnings pushing it to $85-$86.

Probably not one I will play unless I get some strong evidence Monday and Tuesday. Dissapointing as of now, because I was loving the setup pointing downward until this week. The large bounce back up threw it in limbo.

Have to take what something gives you. Trade on great setups that feature high probability outcomes. Betting on plays that are in balance is gambling.
“Give it hell Heinekandle, I’m enjoying it.”
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX

“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
oldarmy1
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AG
oldarmy1
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AG
Heineken-Ashi
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oldarmy1 said:

AFL




Really wish you would expand the vertical axis.

And does it matter, for your three strike theory, that some happened in the "previous" uptrend while the most recent is already after that trend reversed? Seems unreliable to be zooming out far enough that your indicator is overlapping through reversals of trend. Willing to be educated here.
“Give it hell Heinekandle, I’m enjoying it.”
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX

“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
EliteZags
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AG
buckleup again
only have direct exposure to PYPL AMZN SOFI COIN here but lotta early wk momentum shifters

flashplayer
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AG
A couple I'm in on that I may have missed on the above list or are not listed:

POWL (Tuesday after close)
DASH (Wednesday after close)

So based on how little I know you should probably short the hell out of those two (edit: and just to be clear that is self deprecating satire, not advice.)
ProgN
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IDK anything about DASH, but I'd highly suggest no one here shorts POWL. Those that might have their last 5 ER got destroyed.
oldarmy1
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AG
Talon2DSO
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AG
Don't sleep in WING this week. EC is Wed morning and it's coiled for a pop. They've had remarkable move up in the last 3 quarters as well.
El_duderino
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SOFI beat earnings, but Q2 guidance lowered
texagbeliever
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Market after 10 minutes of opening:
And I'm Free... Free Falling
rme
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AG
That's a good start. I'm not a trader, but I did buy TSLA Friday.
Brian Earl Spilner
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AG
Not for long it seems.
texagbeliever
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META retrying 435, AMZN 180
Brian Earl Spilner
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AG
We'll see if AAPL can finally break out of this channel.
FJB24
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No inside source, but my suspicion is Insulet will announce their timeline this year for the iphone app, which is key to their pricing/market penetration in the T1D market, where presently on many formularies they have had an obstacle with regards to their controller being sometimes considered a DME (Durable medical equipment).

The FDA gave approval back in October but moving their customer base to iPhones for dosing is a big operation so no formal announcement other than '2024' so far of when it goes live. PODD has had some headwinds the past year or so (caveat, I own a tiny bit), but one to keep an eye on with May 9 earnings coming up.
Charismatic Megafauna
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AG
Charismatic Megafauna said:

Charismatic Megafauna said:

I bought a tsla june 185c. Wcgw?

Ended up with 3 of these, trimmed one for 40%, riding the other two to valhalla

Booyah
Heineken-Ashi
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I can't say it's high probability, but I like a short term trade on MARA. Buy below $18 and above $17 with stop at $16. Target $24-$25.

Still leaning toward one more major drop toward the $10-$12.50 range before going truly long. If this short term play works out though, and MARA fails to drop below $20 after hitting $24-$25, then it could be working its way back to previous mid $30's high.
“Give it hell Heinekandle, I’m enjoying it.”
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX

“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
flashplayer
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AG
Does that parallel your take on BTC for the near term?
Heineken-Ashi
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flashplayer said:

Does that parallel your take on BTC for the near term?
Ideally BTC would come back to $55k. I had been looking for $59k and it hit a couple weeks ago. We do have a potential downward setup to go lower. But a minimum is in place for a bottom, so I need to see $59k break. Most likely it's going to chop around a bit longer, but truly anything can happen.

I have positions on CLSK, IREN, and CORZ for miners and GBTC for ETF's. And I will add more if we get further downside. If not, I'm riding with what I've got. If MARA doesn't go lower, I am looking for back to the low to mid $30's to confirm bullish path and will form a position on the retracement that follows into the mid $20's. Otherwise, I'm not buying MARA until under $15 and likely lower.
“Give it hell Heinekandle, I’m enjoying it.”
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX

“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
ProgN
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When this TSLA short squeeze ends and it tops out, I'm looking at the TSLA 8/16 165p
Heineken-Ashi
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ProgN said:

When this TSLA short squeeze ends and it tops out, I'm looking at the TSLA 8/16 165p
I'd strike higher, as those gaps are going to be major demand zones. I'd set it up to profit off the first gap fill, then wait for bounce and reload to profit off the next.

But the 8 EMA is threatening to cross the 34 on daily for the first time this year. If that happens, I'd be amazed if TSLA drops to new lows from there.
“Give it hell Heinekandle, I’m enjoying it.”
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX

“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
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