Ragoo said:

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Had a good couple of weeks trading. One poor trade today. All cash now. Wiring out and going to sit on it for a while. Probably be back in mid June.

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Was trying the NOV play, but wondering if I should bail out Monday a.m. instead of waiting and possibly getting stopped out in the next week or two at 17. In at 19.45, closed at 19.63 today. Basis is a fair chunk of what I have allocated for trading on this thread's info, so selling would free up cash for other setups.

And Ashi, my SLV calls and XLF puts feel like pocket aces right now. Keep 'em coming!

bhanacik said:

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I also had several support-based stops hit this week. Cash preservation mode right now. Make sure you have stops in place

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Thought about it but it seems like it would be pretty easy for the market to hit the stops and just bounce back up above my current average prices.


I'm just gonna ride out the storm

ARKG got so low I just bought more today. Eventually this sector and AI join forces imo. I've had this thought for decades and here we are

NateDog said:

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Was trying the NOV play, but wondering if I should bail out Monday a.m. instead of waiting and possibly getting stopped out in the next week or two at 17. In at 19.45, closed at 19.63 today. Basis is a fair chunk of what I have allocated for trading on this thread's info, so selling would free up cash for other setups.

And Ashi, my SLV calls and XLF puts feel like pocket aces right now. Keep 'em coming!

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I'm accumulating O&G and setting stops where if it breaks, it has room to run down. I'm very bullish energy but I'm just not convinced the big move is happening just yet. I could absolutely be wrong. This feels like the first move. Many haven't even gotten up off the floor yet, and some got a little far a little fast. The next couple of weeks feels like a consolidation period brewing for the really big move when crude gets to $100.

But like I said a couple days ago, you can't ignore the overbought and sell signals. I'm hoping for small retrace overall that allows me to accumulate. But I've started the accumulation in case it takes off.

You have to know where the bull markets are. An no, Jim Cramer won't help you find them until they are already rounding 2nd base. Right now, it's metals and energy. And commodities are threatening to start one.

I'm still bullish energy.

Driving season starts in May, some say June, doesn't matter MORE gasoline demand is coming.

Baker Hughes reported 506 Oil Rigs, down 2 from last week. US oil rigs oscillating between 494 and 510 for 30 weeks in a row. Dept of Interior just made it more expensive to drill on public lands. OPEC+ is practicing what they preach and staying steady with crude cuts and quotas. Russia running out of Western technology & parts to keep their energy infrastructure operating. Russia has lost upward of 40% of refining capacity, probably closer to 50%, but I don't think over 50%. Ukrainian drones taking out some energy/refining capacity too. BTW, SLB is still there servicing some Russian needs.

Whether my former posts regarding EIA and Crude Futures Shorting shenanigans were believed or not, the Shorting Entity in Futures has moved into the shadows for the most part, but appears in the market every now and then of late and wields power like no other to drive WTI down in price. Takes a $1.50 to $2 out of crude in generally 5 to 7 minutes with tens of thousands of contracts. That's not a Large Commercial or a Large Speculator. The Shorting Entity lost the narrative when Brent hit $87-ish and plowed forward through $89. There are more Doubting Thomas crude bulls moving in that need more proof of a tight S&D. They'll get it, no worries. Those Weekly Wednesday EIA numbers keep the bulls skittish because we are at record production,...sure we are. MSM does not want anything bullish energy in the headlines. Jerome doesn't need expensive energy because he is no longer able to use energy as a tool. JB needs a rate cut before Nov, but inflation would move up and energy would lead the way and Jerome knows this.

"A" world view on EIA and US crude:
"This is one trick the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) uses to halt any rise in oil prices. The minute oil prices start to trend upwards, the EIA immediately announces a build in US oil inventories." ~ Mamdouh Salameh .... Dr. Salameh's comment is spot on. EIA always has the crude oil "adjustment" (found barrels) in their back pocket. They also have Footnote #6 to their "Current Week" US domestic production "estimate" stating that the production number is just that.... an "estimate". At some point, EIA will be forced to drop their "estimate" to 13.0M bpd, then 12.9M bpd, etc....

Regarding XOM:
White Star Research has reviewed the impact of the PXD acquisition. This is the only research I have found related to share price post acquisition. The financial analysis forming the basis for White Star's price target is contained in this Feb 15 article.... "Exxon Mobil: Raising Price Target On Strong 2023 And Pioneer Deal" White Star's conclusions:

"Keeping my assumptions for oil prices at a reasonable $75/bbl Brent level, I adjust breakeven price projections in line with Exxon's latest corporate plan as of December 2023, now calling for $35/bbl to be reached by FY27 as opposed to the previously targeted $30/bbl. I also incorporate Pioneer's expected cash flows, which I estimate at $10bn p.a. by FY27 (consistent with a regression of CFO to Brent $/bbl for previous 12-month periods over the past 2 years) and expected merger synergies as lined out in my note on the deal. Capex is also adjusted upwards to reflect ~$4bn of annual Capex from Pioneer and a slight increase in Exxon's projected Capex levels."

"Using an unchanged cost of equity of 10% and an exit multiple of 7.0x Price/FCF (slightly below XOM L5Y average of ~8.4x), I calculate a total Equity Value of $722bn. Assuming a post-close share count of 4.56bn (3.97bn current and 0.59bn in additional shares to be issued) I derive a fair value per share of $158 for the consolidated entity, up 15% vs. my previous price target and implying 56% upside to current trading levels"

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I've seen PT's as high as $160 and even one at $200, all without regard to PXD deal. I "may" start trimming at $132. Depends on how the PXD ends up. If I trim I still have a large position of XOM I'll retain Long Term. I am uber long XOM and PXD.

Hope some of this helps.

Have a great weekend.

Buying opportunities.

Been waiting on this. Even started doubting myself. Don't trade based on my timing. Just trying to keep it in the channel. Channels routinely shift more horizontal. But considering the halving is days away, this is more likely to be quick than long. $60k is my bare minimum expectation. $42k is line in the sand.

and futures open green

War is bullish. Everyone knows that.

Friday ended oversold. Even if a deadcat bounce, sentiment needed a reset. And I've seen some calling for new ATH's and a blowoff top.

The 10 year treasury cannot continue its rapid ascent without bad consequences. FOMO investor beware.

Stocks up, oil down, gold down

I'm sure everyone was predicting that this weekend ha

POWL