AgEng06 said:

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bhanacik said:

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got stopped out on RBLX

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I would like to hear Heineken's thoughts on this. I know sometimes those stops aren't exact, and then it recovered a little bit back to almost $37.

In these cases, do you put the stop in as an order so that you are out when the stop hits, or do you set an alert and then look to confirm before actually selling?

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I got stopped too.

What I look for off significant bottoms is an impulsive structure up. In Elliott Wave terms, that means 5-waves non-overlapping. A lightning bolt where the lows don't retrace the previous move up by more than 50%. When you get that.. all 5-waves, you wait for a 50% - 61.8% retrace of the whole 5-wave move and then look even higher. 76.4% is about the most retrace I will accept, but that usually leads to the next moves up being more choppy and not getting as high as preferred.

In this case, it only had a 3-wave move up. It's retraced the majority of that move. A structure like this is considered "corrective". It doesn't mean it won't go higher. Instruments commonly move in series of 3-wave moves. But they are largely unpredictable. Off a major low with a bullish outlook, 3-wave moves are NOT good. Because it opens the possibility for sideways action. It opens the possibility for new lows. It's a clear sign that bulls weren't able to follow through. Bears still have ammo in the tank and at levels way too close to our recent low.

So long story short, I'm now on the sidelines on this one until this structure resolves. There was always a case for another low. It has now grown in probabilities with this breakdown. Doesn't mean it WILL come. Just means the immediate bullish path is no longer clear. So we wait for it to resolve and wait for the next setup. And if it doesn't present a clear one, then you don't worry. Not everything is tradeable. We don't want to gamble. We want to invest in trending moves that have high probability outcomes. So let's go find those while this one plays with itself in the corner.

EnronAg said:

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I disagree...Powell gave this market some gasoline to continue this rip...

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What exactly did he say that's bullish?

- Inflation has ticked back up the past two months
- Repo market is getting dangerously low so we have to consider stopping QT soon (fake QT as liquidity injected through BTFP has been higher than liquidity drawn out through QT)
- We plan to lower rates this year still, despite inflation potential
- Inflation will get back to 2% at some point (I guess 10 years is some point)
- We reserve the right to raise rates should data indicate we need to

This a month after he said some regional banks are going to go under and consolidation and mergers will likely happen.

Like I've been saying, he talked out of all 12 sides of his mouth. He said nothing. All he did was kick the can. Why? Because the FED is trapped and they can't act until something forces them to. If they act before anything moves, they will get blamed. If you want to know what the FED will do in the future, watch the bond market and interest rates. Them moving in one significant way or the other will tell you what the FED will do 60-120 days later. Them spiking hard one way or the other will tell you what the FED will do at the next FOMC.

Because he kicked the can, market participants are just humming along. Nothing is breaking yet, so why trade like it is? When something breaks, the market will react, and the FED will follow.

Brewmaster said:

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Brian Earl Spilner said:

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The one month chart on ROKU looks incredibly strange to me. Algos?

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it can just be volatile... this is going back to January of 23.

it could be a big winner if it can hold this trend line at bottom of this megaphone. If not, then 50's come quick.

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That was my hope. One more push up in this diagonal. But it can just as easily be considered topped. Untradeable until it starts to prove itself, though the R/R here is super tempting.

Heineken-Ashi said:

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Buying XTL - SPDR Telecom ETF

Stop: $71.75 - recent low
Min target: $84
Max target: $90

Lightly traded and very little options flow, otherwise I'd be buying July $80 calls. Bid/ask spread on calls is huge with no interest, so going shares.

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Here's the thesis for this one from the Elliott Wave perspective. The move down from the 2021 high happened in 3 jumbled, but distinct waves ABC shown in red., where the length of C equaled the length of A from the top of B and met at the 61.8% retrace level of the Covid through 2021 move up, which is the most common pattern for a typical correction. That showed to be very a high quality support zone just as you would draw up. From there, it's had a single move up that has been retraced by 50%. So you can set your stop there or even a little lower at $70 which is the 61.8% retrace. Below that and this turns unpredictable. Above that, and we're looking for the A=C 100% move up which would park it near the last major resistance zone around $90.

Like I said in the original post, very good R/R here.

It's is not the most liquid of ETF's, so assuming it does go up, I will probably sell a little earlier than normal, maybe $85 while keeping maybe 25% of my position in case it extends higher. And if we get stopped at $70, on to the next one, as always.

And like I've said before.. Elliott Wave "can" be used as a prediction tool. But what it is better at is identifying key support and resistance levels. Don't let all the letters and numbers here confused you. At the end of the day, it's hit all of its S&R levels and played out as expected. So we use the outline we have as it's the best tool to project the next levels. Once the trend of reacting as expected breaks, then it becomes clear something else is happening and we know to pivot with that uncertainty.

Brian Earl Spilner said:

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Quick tax question. Just submitted my return, and didn't realize I missed the step for capital loss carryover from last year. (Had ~$400 from last year.)

But, my cap loss for 2023 ended up at the -$3000 cap anyway.

Question is, can I still carry over the -$400 from 2022 in future returns (as in add it to my remaining carryover balance), or did I lose it?

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Your losses carryover I believe. We have some CPAs in here so I'm sure they can confirm or tell me to stay in my own lane.

Bocephus said:

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Brian Earl Spilner said:

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Definitely not worth it. Only $80 or so in taxes it saves me, minus the $15 to amend.

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But you could use that $65 to buy to ounces of silver which you could trade in for a hamburger 20 years from now

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Or to buy 5 shares of BOIL

wanderer said:

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Bocephus said:

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Brian Earl Spilner said:

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Definitely not worth it. Only $80 or so in taxes it saves me, minus the $15 to amend.

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But you could use that $65 to buy to ounces of silver which you could trade in for a hamburger 20 years from now

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Or to buy 5 shares of BOIL

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wanderer said:

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Bocephus said:

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Brian Earl Spilner said:

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Definitely not worth it. Only $80 or so in taxes it saves me, minus the $15 to amend.

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But you could use that $65 to buy to ounces of silver which you could trade in for a hamburger 20 years from now

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Or to buy 5 shares of BOIL

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