Heineken-Ashi said:
El_duderino said:
You think we pullback and gap fill all the way back down to 4400? Would be a ~12% correction
I could see that followed by a blowoff top into year end. That would align with the 1999-2000 fractal that we've been following.
I could also see us going straight up and topping now.
I try to remove bias, but we're at a point where despite the strength in the market, you might still be better off de-risking in the long run.
Who ends up better, the guy with paper gains up to 6k that erased quickly and it takes 15 years to recover? Because that's what happened to those who invested in the October 1999 bottom and didn't get out before the 2000 drop.
Or the guy who went to cash at 5k, placed trailing stops on all longs, and waited for 4k to re-invest?
Nobody knows what will happen. But the DCA long term guys are going to feel pain at some point. And those millions on their screen will be gone.
I'm KIND of like this to a point. I'm 49 so 401k is long haul and still have some time until I can retire. Wasn't great about investing in my 20's. And currently thinking of going heavy bonds/low risk in 401k to try to help protect and not so much DCA.
But in my small, fun money account where I'm learning over the last couple years when I can squeeze in time I'm in this boat. Done SOME trading in it but not a ton. Have some long positions there too and one of which is ASO. Got in around $20 and sold CC's to lower cost. And it's run up and is now at ATH around $73. Between macro market and earnings in a few weeks I'm just watching it. Had a CC expire for pure profit in February and not selling another until at least after earnings. With that big of a paper gain I keep saying to myself I should probably cash out the big winner. I can still win big if it drops and I sell at $65 but obviously there's FOMO that it could just keep going.
So not quite the DCA aspect but the paper gains aspect is there. This is where I'm going to have a stop in case it drops. i.e. probably $65. Yeah there'd be disappointment from not getting max BUT it would still be a huge win for my account and more than make up from losses I'm sitting on for WWR and a handful of others.